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The political year ahead
Here’s a few guesses about what’ll happen in the year ahead in politics. Shearer will cement his leadership by turning his back on the old guard who put him there. The Greens will hold on to their gains. National will go hell for leather. Mana will build as the Maori Party dies. Asset sales and the economy will be the big issues – can the Left win the framing?
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Cunliffe, Parker swap roles
The new Labour line-up is announced. Parker Finance, Ardern Social Development, Cunliffe Economic Development (plus Assoc Finance) round out the top five.
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Shearer’s Address in Reply
David Shearer’s brand is of a new kind of politician. Not burdened by the old rivalries, he is touted as the man that can move New Zealand forwards – a consensus-builder rather than a scarred old warrior. The weekend media coverage has been excellent. His Address in Reply this week will consolidate his brand. Here is what I would say if I were him.
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What to do with Cunliffe
There’s talk Shearer might hand Cunliffe the poisoned chalice of foreign affairs. As Clark did her main rival, Goff. That’s no job for a man with a young family. Anyway, Goff’ll want it back ahead of taking the Chinese ambassadorship. Instead, let Cunliffe swap with Parker, who was invisible in economic development and energy, and take on Joyce.
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Nanaia Mahuta
I believe that a strong platform of investment in education, skills and training makes all the difference for many hard working families.
We need to be relevant to aspirations in the provinces, this means that we need to support our provincial candidates more effectively so that they are not having to fight an election on a single issue and not without the resources and support of the party.
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The big win
The new government comprises the same parties as the previous one: National, ACT, United Future, and the Maori Party but with 64 votes, not 69. The governing parties’ total vote fell from 51.84% to 50.41%. Even the narrower Nat+ACT bloc fell. National’s ‘big win’ was just one more seat. And the most powerful man in the country now? Peter Dunne.
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David Cunliffe
I am tribal labour. I am the son of an Anglican Minister known as the “Red Reverend” and a stalwart member of Timaru Labour. My political beliefs were instilled into me from birth. For me the foundation is that every human being is of equal moral worth and the structures of our society must give everyone a chance to be the best that they can be. That means leaning against the free market when it undermines human dignity and starves many of the opportunities they need to build a good life.
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Musings on Mana
David Small offers his views on offers his views on the Mana party effects on left politics in NZ.
Where to now for progressive electoral politics in Aotearoa?
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Playing to lose
“That’s MMP for you” John Key smugly proclaimed in justification of his charter schools policy. Apparently, it’s MMP’s fault that he chose to rort the system and then us the one ACT MP as an excuse for unmandated rightwing policies. But why are the Nats suddenly acting so haughty and pushing through unmandated policies? The answer is MMP.
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The John Key Party
Ubiquitous Tory blonde #5 (Jo Goodhew?) was on Backbenches last night. At the factory where Nat backbenchers are stamped out, they’re programmed to say ‘John Key’ whenever possible. It went wrong, though, when Goodhew said she was proud to be a reelected member of the John Key Party. It was a slip that told the truth: National, and the Right, is now completely dependent on one man.
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Bugger the polls
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
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Election night roundup
We will try to keep updated with the results of the election as they come through. And we hope that you will do […]
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Vote for MMP, anything else is just crazy
I see that the Nats in drag anti-MMP campaign have brought space on our banner. Now I know the mood of the authors on this subject. They’d like MMP with tweaks – which will happen in 2014.
I looked at the anti’s pathetic ad, and decided that it was more effective to take their money, counter it (like the Standards enhanced logo?) and comment on it.
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Will Key sign pledge not to sell Kiwibank?
Phil Goff has signed a pledge that Labour will not sell Kiwibank if it becomes government. Other party leaders have been invited as well. I expect the Greens, New Zealand First, Mana, and the Conservatives will (who knows about the Maori Party). But will Key sign? National is secretly itching to sell Kiwibank, Bill English got caught out admitting as much.
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Labour’s fantastic children’s policy
Labour released its excellent children’s policy yesterday that will lift 150,000 children out of poverty and enhance families’ quality of life. The Right is wailing. Fuck ’em. They’ve turned a blind eye while 32,000 more kids have fallen into poverty. Only a Labour-led government will have the policies for a truly brighter future for all Kiwis, especially our kids.
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Insight on poverty
Sunday morning’s RNZ Insight program was an excellent examination of poverty in NZ. Labour’s policies were slowly reducing poverty. National’s are making it worse again. How much do we care?
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TVNZ and Herald polls
Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don’t panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.
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Nats’ biggest ever drop in 3 News poll
The latest 3 News / Reid poll has National down 5.1%, their largest drop (in this poll) since becoming the government. Labour is up 3.6%. A long way to go yet, but it’s an encouraging start to the election campaign for the Left.
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Ashcroft – the photo-op Key didn’t want
Paddy Gower at TV3 reveals Lord Ashcroft, billionaire Tory donor and International Democratic Union treasurer, has come to talk to Key again. Just discussed politics generally, said Key. Politics yes, generally no. Ashcroft’s interests are now devoted to polling and blog communication, and he is very interested in our election. Having seen Cameron miss out on a majority, he’ll want to help Key to one here.
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Why are the Right acting like losers?
It was meant to be so easy. With high polling and several possible support partners, National would breeze into a second term thanks to Brand Key. The man himself would carried around the country by crowds of adoring locals. It would be more coronation than campaign. So, why are National weather-vanes, Farrar and Slater, hitting the panic-button?
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Slave fishing – NZ’s shame
You won’t find much praise for Talley’s on this site. But, fair dues, they harvest their fish with Kiwi crews and have this to say on slave fishing: “If it is uneconomic to harvest a New Zealand resource under New Zealand labour conditions and costs then it is not a resource. Blood diamonds and Asian textile sweatshops use the same justification”
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Goff impressive in Native Affairs debate
The first leaders debate took place on Native Affairs tonight. Key and Goff were interviewed by Julian Wilcox. Key was lacklustre – if New Zealanders were finding it tough to make ends meet it was all down to global circumstance, nothing to do with him. Goff by contrast was impressive – blew that argument apart with the observation that it was the choices Key’s government made inside New Zealand that mattered. One could see why Key does not like being face to face with an incisive interviewer. [Eddie: Video now up]
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Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes
A recent poll confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes over the Rena disaster is a real effect.
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Average Joe: Don Brash withdraws from Treaty debate…why?
Dr. Don Brash has pulled out of a debate on Treaty issues to be held on TV3’s ‘The Nation’. Which is curious considering Act’s ‘one law for all’ policy is directly concerned with treaty issues. Average Joe points out his take on why Act isn’t there. Plaudits to The Nation for having the debate, brickbats to Act for avoiding the debate – at least send along the person who knows the policy….
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Farrar poll sounds ACT’s death knell
National Party pollster David Farrar has been polling in Epsom and the results are not good for the Right. Epsomites are pissed off with their seats being used as a backdoor for ACT into Parliament. They don’t like the gall of the Nats taking out Hide, slotting in Banks and expecting nothing to change. They don’t like dopey Brash.
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Losing the class war
The median (‘typical’) Kiwi income has fallen 6% under National after inflation. It’s worse if you’re Maori – 16%. And if you’re PI? 21%. That’s more than a hundred dollars a week. It’s a disgrace. In fact, ordinary people’s incomes have shrunk faster than the economy under National. Their policies have driven more of what’s left to the rich.
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None so blind
National’s economic credibility was shot to pieces last week when Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave them ‘not achieved’ marks. Less than a quarter of the OECD has been downgraded. New Zealand is one of them. The Nats won’t admit there’s a problem. When the statistics are laid in front of them, they say they’re wrong. In the Nats’ war with reality, we’re the victims.
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A week of polls
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
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Gap closes in latest Morgan poll
Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour.
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ACT, the continuing implosion
On Sunday, Don Brash decided to muse on decriminalising cannabis. It’s not ACT policy, we’re meant to understand, it’s just the Party Leader making a speech and saying ‘this would be a good idea’. In classic Brash style, he hadn’t told John Banks, who gave Brash a public smacking on the idea. Now the question is: why would the people of Epsom vote for these two?
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Stand up for the rule of law
Your Police knowingly acted illegally to spy on your fellow citizens. No-one’s saying those being surveilled are angels. It’s not about them. It’s about whether the agents of the State, who are ultimately meant to be your agents, should be allowed to act illegally. Should the ends justify the means or do we believe in the rule of law as the only way to constrain those with power from abusing it?
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Roy Morgan and Sue Bradford
From the miscellaneous bits of news department – a particularly grim Roy Morgan poll, and the announcement that Sue Bradford is standing for Mana against Paula Bennett in Waitakere.
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Nice Mr Key
The Stuff interview of John Key in the weekend was better than your average puff piece. Interesting that Key doesn’t even try to defend his record on its merits.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Nicky Hager’s Other People’s Wars and the Urewera ‘terror raids’ fiasco raise, once again, serious questions. Are the security agencies that are meant to protect our society from threats, themselves operating outside the law and democratic control? Not according to Key. And he knows because he got advice. From whom? Why the security agencies of course.
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Chose a brighter future?
Once again recent headlines prompt me to ask if in 2008 we really chose a brighter future after all.
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Denis Tegg: Officials muzzled on peak oil
Denis Tegg on National’s head in the sand Energy Strategy. All the official international warnings have been dismissed and the government has forced official to remove any reference to peak oil. The minister flatly refused to answer questions about the impact of peak oil on her fossil-fuel centred plan at the strategy launch.
