Let’s talk gangs

Sir Peter Gluckman was John Key’s Chief Science Advisor. He said some of the most important factors to prevent youth crime was alleviating poverty and keeping people out of incarceration.

A Faulty Handbrake Analogy

Pulling the handbrake in a moving car is not a smart way of preventing a breach of traffic rules and can cause chaos, confusion, and collision.

National wants to supress voter turnout

In recent news Christopher Luxon chose November 7 as election day even though he was told by the Electoral Commission that the date was challenging and that other dates were more feasible.

The Opportunity National Courtship

National has softened some policy positions, bringing it closer to meeting some of Opportunity’s five bottom lines. Is Luxon preparing to pull off the post-election flip-flop to end all flip-flops?

Enrolment levels

From this morning’s PolitikToday, the enrolment figures are out. Currently sitting at 90.77% overall against the estimated electorate. As you’d expect the 18-24 age group, is the worst off, having about 62% enrolled. What is interesting is the age groups of 65-69 and 70+ show more than 100% enrolment. The 70+ group having a remarkable 103.25%. I can feel the conspiracy theorists stirring…

Chris Hipkins Is Right

Chris Hipkins is not Jacinda Ardern. His small bore policies may not even reward Labour in 2026 vote share. But 2026 is the right time for the Chris Hipkins school of politics.

Calculated cruelty

National has announced two populist cruel policies today of benefit cuts for beneficiaries on the Jobseeker benefit for over two years and random drug testing for beneficiaries.

The Leader’s debate

Some thoughts on the first Leader’s debate, essentially to agree with Thomas Coughlan that Luxon is leading National to a defeat and this debate did not help.

Who buys the election – follow the money

A site called followthemoney.nz is worth looking at. It is beta site that tracks since 2019, the visible money directed at political parties. It includes declared donations, the broadcasting allocations, some details on the donations over and under 15k and a interesting list of declared donors in 2026 up to the end of September.

RNZ-Reid poll happy dance

This is good. It’s one poll, trends are better, but what it gives left wing parties and volunteers a big confidence boost twenty […]

The Race for Tamaki

Normally the seat of Tamaki is won by the right but given a potential vote split, a Teal type response to the right’s culture war campaigns and an outstanding campaign by Labour’s Max Harris anything is possible.

The Race for Mt Albert

A Spinoff poll suggests that the race for Mt Albert is a clear choice between Labour’s Helen White and National’s Melissa Lee.

Opportunity’s five bottom lines

This is OP practicing what they preach: rebuilding trust in politics. It looks odd because we are so used to Peters’ centrist grandiosity, power-mongering and manipulating MMP while actively undermining other parties. OP are doing something completely different.

Nicola Willis high on a surplus of inflation and unemployment

The PREFU reveals an approaching Nicola Willis surplus based on inflation and fiscal drag. It has nothing to do with economic growth. Meanwhile our young adults are experiencing the joys of very high and sustained unemployment. The same kind of environment that stunted the generation in National’s recession of the 1990s. This time we have a rapidly ageing population. And Nicola Willis in fantasy land.

Watch Waitaki

Damien O’Connor has a unique chance to wrest the safe seat of Waitaki off National’s Miles Anderson.