Support for the Conservative and Unionist Party is collapsing, but this is turning to cynicism and rage rather than enthusiastic support for a Labour Government next year. There is a possibility that in 18 months’ time, UK Labour are in Government, but have lost the London Mayoralty.
Despite everything that has happened, it would be a serious mistake to underestimate the British Conservative Party which has proven time and again to be an electoral force to be reckoned with. In England, where over 80% of British voters live, Tory is the default option in many parts of the country. The polarisation within Britain is high with tensions from the Brexit debate and ongoing calls for Scottish Independence still simmering. The Tories can certainly play these divisions to their advantage in the hope of winning support
It is risky to make predictions, but it is safe to assume we have not heard the last of Boris Johnson. And much like Berlusconi in Italy, the results will undoubtedly be bad both for politics and the country.
Vladimir Zelensky’s message to the New Zealand Parliament will be delivered in the last week before Christmas, in the bury-it time-slot. That seems appropriate, for much has changed since the heady days when our Parliament went straight for sanctions on Russia without discussion.
At the very time that the United Kingdom Conservative Government is imploding National leader Chris Luxon is visiting to get new ideas on how to run a country.
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In the United Kingdom Boris Johnson’s government has been brought to its knees because of a sex scandal, surprisingly not one involving himself.
In the UK Rail Maritime and Transport boss Mick Lynch has caused a media sensation by strongly and clearly advocating for workers rights as the Conservative Government aims to deal with inflation by eroding further workers wages and job conditions.
It’s pretty commonplace now to observe that Prime Minister Ardern is doing well overseas but tanking at home.
Christopher Luxton has proposed that social media posts showing gang members wearing bling should be censored. And in the United Kingdom Boris Johnson has railed against a ECHR decision which has upset his efforts to illegally extradite refugee status applicants to Rwanda. These are different examples of something the right is finessing, culture wars against minorities in breach of their rights for political advantage.
Reports from the UK suggest that Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister may be over because it appears sufficient conservative MPs have a sufficient sense of morality to be outraged about Boris’s Covid lockdown busting ways.
Update: he survived but over 40% of Conservative MPs voted to remove him.
Over in the UK Boris Johnson has been fined for attending a party he told Parliament he did not attend and which was a gathering that did not breach Covid lockdown restrictions. Surely he should resign.
Robert Ayson’s advocacy of a sanctions regime for New Zealand in case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is a bad idea based on poor intelligence.The “Russian invasion” narrative was always a beat-up, and there is no support from major players in Europe for sanctions such as removal from the SWIFT payment system. Russia’s claim for border security is reasonable and essential for peace.
Boris Johnson’s reign as UK Prime Minister may be terminal after news of a Downing Street party held during lockdown was leaked to the press.
A few random predictions for 2022.
Boris Johnson is on the ropes. Not because of the disastrous effects of Brexit which only passed because of some of the whoppers that he told, but because of a Christmas party held last year at 10 Downing Street at a time when the UK was under a strict lockdown.
Claims that a comprehensive vaccination scheme will allow life to get back to normal ignores the experience of Israel, which despite having a large proportion of its population vaccinated is having a surge of new infections of Covid that is stretching its health system.
Now that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has “opened up” the United Kingdom from many of the Covid19 strictures that it had undergone, there is a lot at stake to his reputation and indeed to the lives and livelihoods of its citizens.
As infection rates of Covid in the United Kingdom surge Boris Johnson has announced that today will be the UK’s Freedom day and will be removing pretty well all mandatory Covid restrictions, even the wearing of masks and social distancing.
The New South Wales’ half hearted response to community outbreak has seen infected numbers increase while in the UK Boris Johnson is planning to remove all restrictions something top scientists describe as “dangerous and premature”.
Former top aide Dominic Cummings has accused UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson of being unfit for the job, and of making constant U-turns, “like a shopping trolley smashing from one side of the aisle to the other”.
Over in the UK Boris Johnson and his former chief advisor Dominic Cummings have had a very public fallout. And ever since it happened there have been very public leaks of damaging information which incredibly have not as yet damaged the Conservative Party’s standing.
There are few issues where UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Labour Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn see eye to eye, yet this proposal has achieved just that. Rarer still to have the Second Heir to the Throne comment on such matters saying it would be “damaging.”
Boris Johnson has announced that the United Kingdom will increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons and open up the possibility of using weapons against non nuclear nations, despite being a signatory to various treaties that prohibit both actions being taken.
In its new integrated defence and foreign policy strategy, Britain intends to raise its nuclear warheads on Trident from 180 to 240. What a waste. It also intends to “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific, sending the New HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier here later in the year to give a message to China. It should read its history.
Well after the emergence of a mutated Covid virus that is much easier to spread and faced with surging infection rates Boris Johnson has put England into a lockdown similar but not as strong as New Zealand’s original lockdown. But the question is, has he done too little too late?
In a letter published in the Royal New Zealand College of Medical Practitioners journal Plan B academics have criticised the Government’s Covid elimination strategy because of the economic effects at the same time that recently announced growth figures show the economy grew in the past 12 months despite Covid.
With Brexit looming there is talk of unfinished customs software and the possibility of chaos around ports, the UK’s food supply being compromised, and potential skirmishes with France at fishing spots. And Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are refusing to talk to Boris Johnson. Hang on England, this is going to get wild.
There are the odd occasions when you find a political opinion that is a joy to read and quite revealing. An analysis piece by the Bagehot columnist that refers to the Conservatives as the dysmorphic Tory party completes its transition from the natural party of government into a British version of the Taliban…
The United Kingdom has used emergency procedures to approve for general use the Pfizer Covid vaccine. But this will nor provide overnight respite from Covid. How do you handle the mass vaccination of pretty well the whole planet? And what are the implications for New Zealand’s border policy?
A surge in Covid infections in Europe and in the United States is raising the specter that the most pessimistic predictions about the disease and its effect on the health system may occur. And right wing governments appear to be spectacularly unable to deal with the crisis.
Originally posted onNick Kelly’s blog
Nick is a Director of Piko Consulting and works as a Political Adviser in The House of Lords.
Listening to the results being reported while driving on that California freeway, I recall thinking ‘this result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom’. On hearing that both Northern Ireland and Scotland had voted to stay part of the EU, in contrast to the rest of the country, it was hard to imagine that this would not become a significant issue.
Boris Johnson’s UK Government has announced that by 2035 there will be no more petrol or diesel cars entering the UK fleet. Is it time for the New Zealand government to announce the same thing?
John le Carré’s 26th book, Agent Running in the Field, which, according to the publishers is his take on Brexit, and suggests a dystopian future for European liberal democracies in a post-Brexit world. It follows John le Carré’s overarching theme – with friends like these, who needs enemies?
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
It has been a tough week for conservative leaders with Trump impeached and the evangelical magazine Christianity Today calling for his resignation, Johnson in the UK announcing voter fraud measures reminiscent of the American deep South, and in Australia Morrison being criticised for missing in action, upstaged by a 13 year old girl and pushing through protection for religious bigotry that Israel Folau would be pleased with.
