No tears for Starmer
An MI6 plant in my opinion. A hollow man, deeply duplicitous, a Zionist warmonger whose only job was to expunge the Labour left. He will not be missed or regretted.
uk politics
Brexit
Is NZ as Stable as Luxon Claims?
By pursuing cuts, selling off assets to multinationals, enabling ACT’s attacks on the Treaty and cutting back on climate commitments, Luxon is guaranteeing that NZ will not be stable for long, writes Elliot Crossan.
END GAME
What is the game plan for the Coalition government? What characteristics can we observe and what is the “end game?”
Do the EU elections matter in Britain?
Last weekend the EU elections saw a significant increase in support for the populist/alt-right in European elections.
I deliberately avoid using the term far-right. It would be too simplistic and inaccurate to paint a picture of Europe re-living the 1930s and entering fascism. It is not.
UK General Election – the mood on the doorstep
The UK still has the First Past the Post Electoral system. Something New Zealand should have absolutely no nostalgia for. This means that, while the campaign is UK-wide, a lot of campaign activity is directed into constituencies that are deemed marginal. In marginal constituencies, a General Election brings a conveyor belt of the good and the great supporting their prospective parliamentary candidate. In “safe seats” voters get much less attention.
British politics – hurry up and wait for a general election
While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.
Underrepresented London
According to Zoopla, the average monthly rent in London as of April 2024 is £2,121. Council tax, internet, water and energy bills are usually on top of this and have increased significantly in the last two years. The average monthly income after tax is £2,902.50. This means most renters spend well over 2/3 of their income on rent and utility bills, with other costs like train fares and groceries many are left with very little disposable income each month.
Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and Scottish Independence.
While Sturgeon’s strong leadership and vision have helped build support for Scottish Independence, the Conservative and Unionist Party’s arrogance and self-serving incompetence in government have greatly aided her in this.
UK Labour – can they finally beat the Tories?
The left in the UK needs to accept they alone do not have majority support and need to work with what they term the “soft left” and more centrist factions to win. The current Labour leadership need to ensure that the left still has a stake in Labour winning, and give enough to motivate the left to vote and campaign for Labour. Look at the lessons learnt by the US Democrats.
Can Rishi Sunak save the Conservative Government?
Despite everything that has happened, it would be a serious mistake to underestimate the British Conservative Party which has proven time and again to be an electoral force to be reckoned with. In England, where over 80% of British voters live, Tory is the default option in many parts of the country. The polarisation within Britain is high with tensions from the Brexit debate and ongoing calls for Scottish Independence still simmering. The Tories can certainly play these divisions to their advantage in the hope of winning support
The curious case of Liz Truss
The truth is, the throwing caution to the wind approach of slashing taxes, removing restrictions on banker bonuses, and slashing other regulations such as IR35 were all consistent with what he and Truss had argued in Britannia Unchained a decade earlier. And these ideas found favour with the Conservative Party membership – with the idealised view of Thatcher’s vision of small government, deregulation and low taxation. For the general public, this was not so much ‘Britannia Unchained’ as ‘Libertarians Unhinged.
Boris Johnson – why he fell and can he come back?
It is risky to make predictions, but it is safe to assume we have not heard the last of Boris Johnson. And much like Berlusconi in Italy, the results will undoubtedly be bad both for politics and the country.
The Occupy Movement and the response to the 2008 financial crisis
As the world currently goes through a post-pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine fuelled economic crisis, it is interesting to reflect on the economic crisis of over a decade ago and how the public responded at that time.
The end of the post war boom
Throughout my time being active in politics, people have discussed the rise of Neo-Liberalism and the free market that occurred throughout much of the world from the late 1970s onwards. Yet few seem to really understand the reasons for this significant shift in economic policy at that time, which continues to shape our society today.
How Brexit Shanked Britain
The political and economic disasters now unfolding in Britain are the responsibility of the Conservative Party from their 2016 Brexit vote through to now.
How is Boris Johnson still in Number 10?
Boris Johnson, should not on balance still be Prime Minister and in the long term, the Conservatives risk being severely punished for not removing him. But despite everything, he remains in post and still, we cannot write him off.
British identity and The Second World War
With regards to Johnson’s own leadership to date, his government’s apparent support of herd immunity as the response to COVID-19 in early 2020 had much more in common with Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy in the 1930s than the Battle of Britain.
What the recent elections tell us about British society
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s Blog In a nation that has suffered over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, one may be somewhat taken aback to […]
Boris wants more bombs
Boris Johnson has announced that the United Kingdom will increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons and open up the possibility of using weapons against non nuclear nations, despite being a signatory to various treaties that prohibit both actions being taken.
Brexit revisited
With Brexit looming there is talk of unfinished customs software and the possibility of chaos around ports, the UK’s food supply being compromised, and potential skirmishes with France at fishing spots. And Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are refusing to talk to Boris Johnson. Hang on England, this is going to get wild.
This result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom
Originally posted onNick Kelly’s blog
Nick is a Director of Piko Consulting and works as a Political Adviser in The House of Lords.
Listening to the results being reported while driving on that California freeway, I recall thinking ‘this result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom’. On hearing that both Northern Ireland and Scotland had voted to stay part of the EU, in contrast to the rest of the country, it was hard to imagine that this would not become a significant issue.
Why UK Labour lost? Part 9: What the party needs to do now.
Originally post on Nick Kelly’s blog
The broader context of this defeat is that over the last century, UK Labour has won 8 out of the last 28 general elections. Overall the Labour Party is not a successful electoral force in the UK. What makes the 2019 loss harder, is that the party lost sections of its historical base in the North of England and the Midlands.
Why UK Labour lost? Part 6: New Labour & Blairism
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
Fact is that the world has moved on from the 1980s and 90s. Politics certainly has. The types of 3rd way or centre/centre right positions that Blair and Campbell think will win just won’t anymore.
Why UK Labour lost? Part 4: Ooooh Jeremy Corbyn
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
Why UK Labour lost? Part 3: Its Brexit innit
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
Why the Tories won the UK election?
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
Listening to left wing dissent
What stands out for me are the voices of the people who are saying actually, there were solid reasons for abandoning Labour, this is why I did. There’s something important here about really listening to dissent and being willing to engage with views that don’t make sense in the context of our own personal ideologies.
Brexit – sorry its not getting done anytime soon.
Can the Conservatives get brexit done by January 31st as they are promising in the election? The short answer is no. The slogan is catchy, and taps into public sentiment. But it is also pure unadulterated bullshit. If the Conservatives do form the next government these words will haunt them, especially Boris Johnson.
The Missing Millions
Millions of people and an entire region of the UK left out of polling calculations….
Bouganville and Brexit
The island of Bouganville has just had a vote towards independence from Papua New Guinea. The result has interesting similarities with the Brexit vote.
The NHS and privatisation
The NHS is well loved by the British public. It is seen as something which makes British society decent and civilised. That the NHS is now stretched and badly underfunded is seen as a national outrage. Fears of even further privatisation of the NHS due to a US trade deal has unsurprisingly made the NHS the number one election issue.
Northern Ireland’s precarious peace
On Friday, UK leader of the opposition revealed a leaked Treasury Paper which undermines the Prime Ministers claims that there will be no checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. My earlier post on each of the party’s Brexit positions pointed out how critical Northern Ireland has been in the Brexit debate.
Scotland – does independence loom?
Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog Scotland matters in the 2019 UK general election. Yet much of the electorate have little understanding of the […]
Youth and the aspirational centre
In 2017 UK general election, it was predicted that the Conservatives would win by a landslide. Why? Well the polls said so. The polls made various assumptions about turnout and which constituencies were marginal and likely to turn. Also commentators assumed that Labour under Corbyn had moved too far left, and could not win the centre ground and win. All of this commentary and analysis proved to be bullshit.
Immigration: we can’t keep succumbing to fear tactics
The folly of electoral pacts
Originally posted Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred […]