Big developments in Beijing

The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping is likely to set the geopolitical direction for the 21st century. If ‘divide and rule’ was the mantra for the US’s hegemonic rule in the 20th century, ‘unite and share’ looks like setting the tone for the 21st. Co-operation rather than competition is the mantra, and “friendship between the two states has no limits.” A truly remarkable turnaround.

Prisoners of the Narrative #1

Robert Ayson’s advocacy of a sanctions regime for New Zealand in case of a  Russian invasion of Ukraine is a bad idea based on poor intelligence.The “Russian invasion” narrative was always a beat-up, and there is no support from major players in Europe for sanctions such as removal from the SWIFT payment system. Russia’s claim for border security is reasonable and essential for peace.

Blinken and Blind-Sided?

Russian peacekeepers are already leaving Kazakhstan having nipped the ‘colour revolution’ in the bud. Blinken clearly didn’t have a clue when he said Russians never leave the house. Russian intelligence was superb. Now we wait for Russia’s response to US likely refusal to pull back from its borders. One thing I’d bet on – no invasion of Ukraine.

Mothers of the Revolution

Saw an inspiring premiere of this NZ -made movie about the amazing women of Greenham Common at the Wellington Film Festival today. Their years-long protest led to the INF treaty, a major advance in nuclear safety, now abandoned. Well worth seeing – a timely reminder in light of today’s news about NATO moving nuclear missiles around Eastern European nations on Russia’s borders.

Looking the wrong way? The SIS in New Zealand

Richard Northey and Nicky Hager will discuss their experiences with the SIS over the past thirty-five years, what they reveal about the agency’s values and culture, and what we might want to see in the forthcoming review of the intelligence and security agencies post the Christchurch mosque massacre. St Andrews Church, The Terrace, Wellington, Friday 3 July 5:30pm. All welcome, register here.

Magicked-Up Weapons

I’m glad Anne-Marie Brady will get the chance to present her “Magic Weapons” paper to the select committee examining the last election. At long last it might get given some proper critical examination, of its content as well as it provenance. In my opinion it reads like a long list of the blindingly obvious, mixed with a large dose of conspiracy theory. It certainly doesn’t show much sign of the sort of critical thinking one might expect from an academic.

Media Thriving on its Own Shit.

When purveyors of propaganda come to believe their own spin and start entertaining really quite idiotic conspiracy theories and abandoning any pretense of being in possession of rational thought, then we’ve got a problem.

Is Politik a propaganda mouthpiece for the UK Embassy?

In Politik’s 7 September issue we are told that Western diplomats in Wellington are surprised that Winston Peters has not accused Russia of the Skripal poisoning or joined some other countries in taking reprisals. Editor Richard Harman quotes a source to tell us that the British in particular were “pissed” at Peters’ response. Well dearie me. I’m with Winston, a wise old owl.

Evidence-based foreign policy

In the second stage of a false flag attack, facts go out the window and the sole issue becomes “are you for us or against us.” Our media and National Party politicians are well into this stage in the Skripal affair. But as questions mount and skeptics proliferate from all sides, Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters may well be wiser than media advisers by not following blindly  the western herd. 26 countries is not the whole world. Update: Porton Down unable to establish Novichok of Russian origin.

Denial in Politics

There’s a lot of it around. The Democrats and their media and spook allies are in a complete lather over Putin’s supposed personal influence in the US election. Confident of victory and its spoils up till midday on election day, the Clinton team are incapable of assessing just what a debacle of a campaign they ran, still less what they need to do now. Lessons abound.

Key’s 4th term – something doesn’t add up

Key has long craved a “historic” 4th term. Interviewed on 24 September he was still saying he wanted it, he now claims he had already decided to quit. While rumours are hard to believe, something doesn’t add up here.

Hollow Men 2 ?

There are three leaks in play this weekend, similar but different. Someone has taken a media shotgun to the Collins / Lusk faction. Hollow Men 2 ?

The meaning of utu

Aaron Gilmore has promised ‘utu’, or reciprocation, against a select band of National insiders. What’s going on behind the scenes?

Kitteridge report released

Following the leaking of the Kitteridge GCSB report to the media (who had copies? who leaked?) and ructions in Parliament’s question time today, the report has been released early. (Very convenient timing for the Nats!)

A note to a media commentator

I finally got around to listening to Gavin Ellis making a complete dork of himself on Radio NZ talking about authors on this site being “manipulated”. Hah! Anyone trying to manipulate them is likely to wind up being made into a pretzel. I wouldn’t care to try it myself. So does Gavin Ellis = a bit of an idiot. Or more charitably, has he actually bothered to think about this issue?

Nat Civil War: Key backs Boag over Collins

John Key gave one of his least sure and most defensive interviews in five years on Q+A on the weekend. His goal was clearly to protect his personal brand and close the issue down. He failed. He failed because he refused to criticise Pullar and Boag, and refused to back Collins’ law suits. That puts him at odds with the Collins faction and onside with Boag’s.

Kremlinology: National on ACC

In most countries, accident insurance is big business. Insurers and lawyers make billions off premiums, claims, and court cases but many people don’t […]

Notional Policy: Kiwisaver

Tracy Watkins reported yesterday that National’s weakening of the employer contribution to Kiwisaver may take a different path to the one we envisaged. […]