National’s four stages of grief

For a party that, at least for now, won the last election National is showing signs of intense grief.

Perhaps it is because the potents are not good. Imagine if after the counting of special votes the right loses two more seats and has to rely on Opportunity to form a Government. How unstable would that be? It would not take long for Peters to start throwing grenades around and it would end in tears.

And think of Christopher Luxon being in charge of this circus. He could not control Act and NZ First last time. This could be way worse. Act and NZ First are stronger, National has lost much of its talent and the presence of Act and Opportunity in the same Government would make it incredibly unstable. We would have Circus 2.0 with a vengeance.

Expect this to get really interesting and do not rule out that which was previously thought unfathomable, and that is NZ First bolstering up the left.

And National has suffered a body blow. Not only has it lost much of its front bench and its speaker. It is now a rural rump of Electorate MPs who are very conservative. Simeon Brown is in the ascendancy despite the appalling campaign he managed. And some of the MPs who lost their seats are not holding back in saying what they think.

For instance former Banks Peninsular MP Vanessa Weenink.

From Radio New Zealand:

Outgoing MP for Banks Peninsula Vanessa Weenink is worried National will be pulled “too far to the right” as she reveals many of her constituents told her they hated National in the lead up to the election.

The former National MP called herself a “squishy centrist” and said she would “worry for the party that they don’t have enough squishy centrists or you know woke liberals like Chris Bishop”.

“The risk is that the party might be pulled too far to the right.

“The risk is that they’ll feel like they really have to consolidate with their base.”

Heading into Parliament for her final caucus, she told media she was “gutted” to lose her seat.

But she said people in her electorate were telling her that they hated National.

“Oh look, a lot of people in that electorate were telling me literally that they hate us. Like they really got to that point.

“There were people there telling us they literally hate us, and then other people would tell us that ‘look, you guys have lost your way. You used to be, you know, much more reasonable, and you’re listening far too much to those other people in your coalition’.”

Asked if she agreed with those comments, Weenink said “I wouldn’t publicly agree with them, and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with everything they said either.”

She said it was her opinion National got pulled too far to the right by its coalition partners. But she maintained Christopher Luxon was the right person to lead the party and that he was a strong enough leader to stop the pull to the right.

Asked why National’s party vote was so low, she said “New Zealand is getting quite fed up with with what seems to be a bit of bickering and fighting, and they just actually want to get on with the real issues.”

Asked if National was to blame for some of that bickering, she said “oh yeah, absolutely.”

Weenink’s concerns are valid. We have seen the UK Conservatives and the Australian Liberal Party are both struggling after having been dragged down culture war vortexes in recent years.

Her concerns were echoed by former National Party President Sue Wood.

In an open letter Wood said:

“While political discipline is important, your decisions must give a voice to your constituents’ feedback. Debate those decisions in caucus and find a unified position.”

…

Wood told MPs to restore the party’s “democratic process for the party structure”.

“The drift into central control can override the wishes of the membership and their community. Achieving high office in the Party should require hard work on the hustings.

“The path to Parliament should be through success in the community and party organisation – not a job in the Beehive.”

Labour should also heed this criticism.

Wood also decried the lack of diversity among National’s ranks.

“With a stronger, wider local party, you will build a bridge to a modern, diverse New Zealand that has felt overlooked by our strategists.

“Step deliberately outside traditional comfort zones to show through your actions that National remains a broad church, representing rural and urban, liberal and conservative, and the myriad of cultures that proudly call this country home.” she said.

And Gerry Brownlee has attacked National for running an overly negative campaign.

From the Spinoff:

On negative campaigning, there are those who say: ‘It works. It’s great. It’s the ideal.’ I don’t like it. I don’t think it is the type of campaigning that really is out there to speak to either a record or an intention.”

He said: “I think if the best you can do is, you know, put down your opponents in some particular way, then you’re expressing a lack of confidence in your own political position.”

And it was a particularly negative campaign from National.

It was that bad that Chloe Swarbrick complained about being cyber bullied. And she was right. Continuous complaints about her being Finance Minister were extreme. I do not know what they were seeking to achieve.

National is through the shock and numbness state of grief and is in the yearning and searching stage where they are trying to work out what happened.

Unfortunately for it the next stage is disorganisation and despair and it is heading toward this stage quickly. I can’t see how National comes out of the negotiation unscathed. A successful coalition negotiation will require Act to behave itself with no Treaty Principles Bill type sideshows, and NZ First and Opportunity to cooperate and get on.

And I cannot see how the right can agree to Opportunity’s bottom lines. A cap on political donations will take away from the right its most potent advantage. The banning of bottom trawling is something that Shane Jones in particular could never agree to. And committing to meeting the country’s Paris Accord obligations is something that will stick in the throat of each right wing party.

National is clearly really worried. The halcyon days of John Key’s leadership where it was constantly the largest party in Parliament as well as being a broad church able to do deals not only with Act but also Te Pati Maori are well and truly over.

Since then we have seen a series of leadership crises as the top of the party has brutally punished failure.

It is fair to say that the next month could be a make or break time for the National Party.

Stay tuned.