There is this outstanding scene from West Wing when Josh Lyman celebrates the picking up of momentum for the Democratic candidate in the US Presidential elections.
Momentum is the most important thing in a tight race. A surge in support can be self reinforcing and make a candidate more attractive to still undecided voters.
There is also a thing as negative big mo.
And this is what National is experiencing right now.
Two recent polls, the One News Verian and RNZ’s Reid Research both show drops for National in the past week.
The One News Verian poll had National down 3% points and Reid Research had National down 1.1% but below 25%.
Ouch.
The votes changes were largely shared with coalition partners, not unusual given how divided the electorate is, but both polls underline how weak National is becoming.
And the rationale is clear to see. In the Reid Research Poll Chris Hipkins was well ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred leader, 23% to 17%. And what must really hurt is that his performance assessment was -24% when comparing those who thought he was doing well to those who thought he was doing poorly.
And half the population thought the country was going in the right direction compared to those tho thought it was going in the wrong direction. This is a recipie for change.
And this incredible rant by Paul the other one sets out a compelling case for people to be grumpy and concerned.
But the election is tight. National’s undemocratic changes to the electoral system could be worth 2% of the vote which could be the difference between winning and losing for the left.
Don’t forget to vote. Your future depends on this election more than any previous election I can think of.