Chances are pretty high that you would have heard National party MPs or candidates claim that there will be an extra 220,000 jobs over the next few years.
It is a central economic narrative, features heavily in National Party advertising and both Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon have used it repeatedly to counter the accusation that they are pretty crap at their job of running the economy.
It also avoids the criticism that last election they promised to fix things up and have not done so. They are claiming that things are on the improve but that we just have to wait a little longer. And you will not hear them talking about how in June 2023 the unemployment rate was 3.6%, or how the prediction is, and this is important, in 2030 unemployment will settle to 4.3%.
So unemployment is and will be worse. But National has this figure it is clutching onto for dear life to give the impression that things will be better.
How has it achieved this? Primarily because of immigration being between 17,500 and 40,000 per annum for the forecast period, young people leaving education and going into the workforce and an easing in interest rates and inflation, primarily fuel prices.
So no magic. Just National claiming credit for population growth and damage from their handling of the economy receding.
Luxon was questioned about this by John Campbell on Radio New Zealand. It was pointed out to him that the numerical decrease in unemployed would be 30,000 to 35,000 people. The clear implication was that the figure Luxon is using is bogus.
Luxon’s response was word salad. He did not have the I swear he talks without drawing breath. He spent a lot of time talking but did not actually address the central point of the question.
But this should be a lesson. You cannot trust anything that National says.