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- Date published:
7:44 am, August 12th, 2026 - 77 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, erica stanford, national, same old national -
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Big day today in Parliament.
National will be meeting to fine tune policy releases, work out how to apply its considerable resources to the campaign and strategise how to maximise its party vote.
Nah joking, National will meet to decide which foot to shoot.
Christopher Luxon has called a second vote on his leadership after the leaks started to appear following a particularly disastrous fortnight for him and for the party.
In that infamous lecture he gave to Rotorua businesses he said that they have to disrupt themselves aggressively before they get disrupted by global events. Who would have thought that this is precisely what he is doing to the National Party?
He won the previous vote by as narrow a margin as 27 to 22. With news that Chris Penk is now doing the numbers for Stanford that majority is likely to evaporate.
And Erica Stanford when questioned refused to say anything, including if she supported Luxon remaining as Prime Minister.
Today will be interesting. And no matter what happens National will be damaged.
Either it will continue with Luxon as a leader and look like it cannot organise a piss up in a pub. Or it will change leadership to someone new who has no public cut through and look like it cannot organise a piss up in a pub.
Stay tuned …
Update – Luxon survived!
Luxon at caucus part 2…
https://youtu.be/KekChFdIe00?si=iWiyV1aaY638Gewx
Sounds like Chris Penk, who has been playing the loyal Zhukov, has shrugged off his cloak in the anteroom to reveal a loaded AK-47.
And a fondness for Erica "Cindy" Stanford.
Penk's a complete waste of space. Even Simon Bridges would call him fucking useless.
You'd think National could "coast through" and win the election, given all of the money they are about to spend on
conning the publicadvertising, even with a wobbly Luxon.But no, they realise that their coalition partners are being strengthened by their lost votes and that National will not have enough power to further their aims, should the coalition be re-elected and so this move is designed to markedly boost their popularity.
Therefore, there is only one contender for the primo seat, and that's Stanford. Only she could possibly enliven the public toward National. imo
The National leadership contest is the default MMP referendum:
MMP simply can't cope with weak leaders.
7 Nov with Luxon as PM: NZF heads to 15% and National to 24% …
… and at that point Peters finally gets the throne in the Agreement.
That's right.
Peters will be on the phone urging the Nat MPs to stick with Lux!
I can see the strategy.
If National's internal polling is telling them that Luxon is probably going to lose, then changing leader doesn't have to be a particularly good option. It just has to offer a better chance than doing nothing.
New leader, enormous burst of media attention, polling bounce, declare a reset, quietly distance yourself from some of the least popular baggage, announce a couple of attractive policies, and hope the coalition can maintain enough discipline to make the election about what comes next rather than the previous three years.
The difficulty is that whoever takes over still owns the government's extremely unpopular record. And they're still governing with Peters and Seymour, neither of whom is famous for quietly disappearing into the scenery because that would be electorally convenient for National.
But if the choice becomes "Luxon probably can't win" versus "Stanford might", then maybe that's enough for the caucus to roll the dice.
Bingo!
Interesting times we are living in with the NZ Political football being kicked around yet again, next 3 months will be interesting with all the BS being tossed around.
Is the spill on Luxon motivated by bad internal polling? If so, who did the polling? Was it David Farrar's Curia, whose polling last week was quite positive for National and terrible for Labour? Is it possible for there to be a discrepancy between a published poll and a private poll, despite both being based on the same data?
My question, exactly, @AB. Both that Taxpayers' Union poll and the Roy Morgan one were surprisingly good for National. I know the Roy Morgan ones are increasingly out of step, but two rival pollsters in a row suggesting a National rise would seem to give Nats a shred of hope. So, yeah, there must be other polling out there, surely?
I don't think it necessarily requires a discrepancy in the polling. It's more about how MPs interpret the numbers.
For a coup to make sense, two things probably have to be true:
If National were comfortably ahead, there'd be little reason to roll him. If they were doomed regardless, there'd be little point either.
The dangerous territory for Luxon is probably somewhere in between: National remains competitive, but enough MPs start believing they'd have a better chance with someone else.
And unfortunately for him, the internal and external polling probably puts National squarely in that corridor of uncertainty.
It will be a line call, 50/50 same as the November 2026 Election Result.
I think TOP will be the new broom that saves Labour's bacon. That’s the way the numbers will roll on election day.
And I think National will change its mind about working with them pre-or post-election. One possibility is Luxon is rolled as part of the negotiation process, so his position no longer counts. Win-win.
But then Peters will throw the biggest tantrum ever in response. Perhaps it will be 6 months of caretaker government? We’ll get sick of popcorn.
A caregiver government wouldn't be such a bad thing. They couldn't inflict anymore damage on us, just like when they go on their Christmas recess.
how can the Curia poll have any credibility? they are so anti-labour it's not funny.
i firmly believe all polls should be banned in the last six weeks before an election, they are so often an attempt to influence votes, and do make a difference at times.
The ultimate motivator here is fear of loss of their own jobs – ministerial, not making it off the list, or back in the electorate.
A natural consequence of an economic performance that consists of
*rising unemployment and more job loss in the government sector to come
*missing all their economic and financial targets and no one believes they will do any better in the next 3 years
*wages rising by way less than inflation
The issue remains, this is mostly a policy failure and they will not admit they got it wrong.
My thoughts too. Which puts the focus on Luxon’s piss-poor performance, but no reason/need [for National] to change tack. Which also means that any replacement [of Luxon] could well be from the current SLT. Arguably, it should be one of the current SLT to demonstrate it’ll be BAU for National.
Remember when govts weren't busy with culture wars for their voter base and internal squabbles, seems so long ago now.
NZ please wake up and vote this shitshow of negative ideological banterdom out !!
The constant scheming and forming of dark combinations against Luxon has more to do with the factional schisms that rent National prior to Luxon getting the job as leader than his actual person failings. Luxon's job was to unite the factions behind the Oriflamme of electoral success, a second coming of Saint Key. Unfortunately as good conservatives their copy of "The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte" has remained untouched on the shelf and so now we are observing tragedy of Key repeated as farce of Luxon.
The electoral and political weakness of Luxon has to my mind simply re-ignited the simmering fight between the Puritans and Cavaliers in National, with the dramatis personae being Luxon and Simeon Brown cos playing Pym and Fairfax and Chris Bishop reprising the role of Prince Rupert.
Long may the war between Bish's regiment of liberal Thespian gentlemen and the rood wrecking Roundheads continue!
Imho Luxon will stay. However he is too dim to change.
What you see is all there is to him. No depth.
Luxon will continue to come out with inane rubbish but louder and more ‘passionately’.
Three cringing months ahead.
The caucus meeting has been going since 9.30.That implies more than just a confidence vote.
I'm thinking there's a new leadership vote taking place .
If I were a National MP, I’d vote for Chris to increase the chances of keeping my job and of National leading [in name only] the next coalition with NZ First, and ACT.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361018886/what-actually-happens-if-sitting-prime-minister-rolled
So peters and seymour need to rubber stamp a new leader or cause an early election.
Surely in a snap election the nats dastardly plan to block late enrolment to vote can't stand?
Stuff reports. "Veteran Labour MP Damien O’Connor has arrived with a supply of Sweet & Salty Kettle Corn, and dropped off a few bags of popcorn to press gallery reporters who are waiting for news from the National Party caucus room.
He said popcorn seemed like a fitting snack."
It's a bit like watching Australia play Argentina at rugby. Could be entertaining but whoever wins……. pffff! The real test is played later in the year.
Luxon lives!!
WooHoo!
Phew!!
I came here to say that.
Maybe no one wanted the poisoned chalice?
The more things change, the more things stay the same with National.
Expect the cost-of-living to keep on hurting you.
There will be a movie one day: The Fastest Luxflake………..
So nearly headless chick CLuxon clucks on.
Under Sue Wood, from Muldoon to McLay to Bolger.
Under Sylvia Wood, Luxon 27-22 unanimous support to remain leader in April and now **-** unanimous support to remain leader in August.
Two wingnuts also remain.
What on the hoof statements will the PM make without consulting caucus or party (or coalition partners) between now and the beginning of the campaign?
Wait for the next episode of Soap.
https://youtube.com/shorts/9e6xXeCPs3Y?si=Boa1qDspciKvvILq
Message to the National Party – "LUX" You won him, now you must keep him!!
Bugger!
I was hopeful Maureen Pugh would be anointed as a dark horse candidate! After all, you don't get struck by lightening 3 times for nothing – or has God been wasting his/her time?
Still, it's immensely reassuring that Luxon is the best the Natz have got!
National, always prepared to do anything for our election entertainment.
Whew
He's kept his job. Thank the political gods!!
Yup.. us RWNJs were hoping for Erica.
It's comforting to know that he will keep saying to us that he has things to say to us. We would all be like lost children without it.
Luckily, there was a fly on the wall in the room where the non-event took place.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/12-08-2026/the-scene-inside-the-national-caucus-room
I was wrong. Totally wrong. Hilariously wrong.
Deliriously, happily wrong. So let's all sing the opposition parties' new song … to the old Telethon tune:
"Thank you very much for Christopher Luxon
Thank you very much, thank you very very very much"
Thank you very much for the next election
Thank you very very very much"
Holy shit, national voters have 4 choices.
Vote and get useless luxon and get 3 more years of this shit .
Vote and get luxon then some other person for prime minister sometime in the next 3 years.
Vote and have national put of government.
Or Vote for another party, . And make nationals woes even bigger.
Holy moly the gods do smile upon us! We are in safe hands with Captain Egg still at the helm. Although I must admit some regret at my hot pick, the cigarette salesman, not being given a crack at the wheel. I was looking forward to his merciless bashing over the next 3 months.
Anyway its about time the left got serious about being a working class party not national lite otherwise we are doomed to 3 more years of perhaps the most useless (and only) triumvirate in NZ electoral history
The Post called the result at 4am.
However it noted if he chose to go
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361060250/editorial-search-your-conscience-mr-luxon
But Luxon is not that guy.
The 3 candidates all had such obvious nicknames they could never live down. Tobacco Chris. No-boats Nicola. Skeletons Erica, or perhaps Robot Erica.
To me, the trouble with Luxon is he lacks authenticity. I think many many voters can sense this. His communication is just awful.
He is there to serve his masters – the corporations, the mega-rich and Trump. But he tries and fails to tell us he knows what he is doing and all will be well. It is long past time his true colours were exposed.
This government's record is appalling. Ferries, pay equity, the disabled sector, the Treaty, the robotising of education, selling off the conservation estate, LNG, and now the 54 nurses scandal, which should be enough to topple them completely.
Labour should be all over this about the nurse hiring freeze. Pity Ayesha is in hospital.
The result of this latest brouhaha makes a bit of a mockery of RNZs new sting – "News and Information You Can Trust."
Next poll out tonight (TVNZ). Won't include recent days.
Based on the results already released, it won't be good for National or Labour. Opportunity probably over 5%.
Poll: Luxon’s PM rating drops again, continuing trend of his time in office
At least I got that one right.
8% for Opportunity is remarkable, and effectively means that Luxon now has to choose, yet again. He can do what he usually does (bluster, double down) or listen to his advisers who will be saying "leave the door just a little open, say you'll talk but rule out policies instead of the party".
He doesn't usually listen, as we all know.
And yes, Qiulae Wong has been playing a blinder. Smart operator.
Key will have told the Nat MPs that the funders will pull their support if they dump Luxon.
Key is devious and yes, he would have told them funder will pull out
Watch a few secs of the post-vote vid in this link to Herald (no paywall). The top tier Nats all herded together for the obligatory solidarity shot. I take it that's Sylvia Wood, Nat Party Pres, grim on Luxon’s left. Wood's apparently The Enforcer. Take a look at the expressions. No one is happy, not a one.
I said the other day that the Nat Ministers hate the sight of each other due to cabin fever in this shit-show of a government. This vid 100% confirms that impression.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/national-mps-to-gather-at-parliament-to-discuss-christopher-luxons-leadership/CM6NYAV4PFFHDHKZMFYDBI3GTE/
who called out to their retreating backs "are we going to be back here in three months time?" 😂
Nat's campaign funds are close to 60% corporates, higher than even ACT. That says something about the drivers of the Nat's political strategies this term. With threats of corporate funding loss, maybe some Ministers have only just realised they were convenient sock puppets. Ego-destroying. Poor widdies.
https://nzpt.cjs.nz/finances/
Hooton doesn't hold back. Worth a watch (13 minutes):
Summary: Mitchell, Stanford, Bishop, Brown, Willis couldn't agree to let one of them become the leader, and preferred to keep a leader they don't support, so as not to support a rival becoming PM.
'Five people have let down National': Hooton and Vance discuss Luxon
You beat me to it.
Love that the five villains includes Mark Mitchell. Cannot stand the man.
Doubt Hooton will be getting a National Party Xmas Card this year.
Penk squished!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361017190/live-christopher-luxon-leadership-vote
Luxon's Cabinet.
Hang the traitor. Keep the racists.
Chris Penk should stand for TOP.
No, I expect he's smart enough to know that Luxon is temporary but National are permanent. Plenty of precedents for MPs being on the outer under one leader but returning under another.
Luxon though, is staying put, so Penk will have to be very, very patient if he wants to wait him out. That Luxon didn't fold this time, nor last time, tells us he's not going to ever tap-out; he'll have to be rolled, and it's clear that no-one in the National Party has the gumption to do that. Luxon will only go when Key tells him to leave.
Penk will wait until after the election, as will his (new and smaller and very unhappy) caucus. Luxon won't be choosing his fate.
Any party can ignore polls. But not votes.
That didn't last long. Penk quits Parliament.
"So, you want to stay in the party, you troublemaker. Well, take a look at these photographs. Shame if they end up on the front pages, eh?"
And so he decides to spend more time with his family …
So, reading tonight's news, (several main sources), Penk vehemently denies organizing a coup, but Luxon publicly stripped him of his portfolios anyway.
Can someone please advise me: is Penk a consummate liar, or did Luxon kick the dog under the table?
Dog under table – Luxon didn't have the guts to kick Mitchell, Willis, Bishop, Stanford or Brown, so Penk got it.
My pick is: he's been made the scapegoat. Penk is a lot smarter than Luxon which wouldn't have helped him. All he needs to do is lie low for the next few months and see what transpires.
My take is that Luxon got angrier and lashed out at Penk (but not Peters) because he can. Luxon probable feels all that incredible innate potential of his slipping away and sliding backwards, unable to set up things for his kids and grandkids because he cannot do better than this. Instead of lashing out at and blaming others, and instead of chanting ‘I have the full support of me, myself, and I’, he should have good look in the mirror. What a numpty!
I understood it that Penk was the one who challenged Luxon for leadership. I think Stanford, at some point overnight, decided not to contest the leadership so Penk decided to.
I have had a lot to do with Penk over the years. He is the best National MP I have ever had to deal with. He was always decent and straightforward.
I am sure he did not want to become PM.
He no doubt put his hand up at the behest of Bishop/Standford and they then hung him out to dry.
The only MP with any sense of decency has announced that he is not going to seek re-election today.
Agreed. I despise Bishop and Stanford even more than I despise Luxon.
Nobody believes it was only Penk. I suppose one small benefit of this mess is that the myth of "nice likeable caring Erica" is gone. (We already knew Bishop was a self-serving sh1t).
After some time to reflect Penk might want to tell the NZ public the truth about how it really happened. He's being loyal to people who don't deserve his loyalty.
Our local ex-Nat MP spoke highly of Penk; he was clearly one of the genuine ones.
Luxon moved to extinguish his career.
What does that tell you?
Looking forward to hearing Finlayson's take on the mess.
that's really sad.
The other factor for Penk that he no doubt considered was this- election results. If National wins, Luxon continues and he stays on the back bench. If National loses, then he would stay as a back bencher, in opposition with even less power.
Mickeysavage says he is a good man. Power for him would be to act for good, unlike the infamous five that Hooton talks about below.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361019363/paddy-gower-and-matthew-hooton-unpack-nationals-failed-caucus-coup
I'd say that Penk has done the right thing. A man of conscience would be sorely tested in that caucus environment.
National now faces an ignominious slide down in the polls until, in Gower's opinion in that well worth watching 5 minute clip above, National apooints any one in theit caucus to arrest that slide into disastrous defeat.
National has not yet come to terms with MMP. Its leader does not know how to deal with its complexities, as Hooton states, and the factions that the old FPP parties had have not yet been dealt with, in the National party.
Ally factionalism with stupidity, cupidity and anti-social tendencies, National risk being punished heavily, as Gower says. NZ voters punish instability in an MMP environment.
I realized overnight that we've all been spared the Christmas Day photo of Erica Stanford in her shorty pyjamas, watching a shallow Hugh Grant movie.
The thought of that should make the undecideds minds up for them 😱
I realized overnight that we've all been spared the Christmas Day photo of Erica Stanford in her shorty pyjamas, surrounded by hubby and kids also in shortie pyjamas , watching a shallow Hugh Grant movie.
FIFU
On Chris Penk: putting aside his good nature, this is the guy who claimed insulation was the reason why north facing, glass walled dwellings were too hot.
Nothing to do with design.
I can't help but wonder which lobby group/developer got to him.
Similarly the desire to have 'the nuclear conversation'. That was in someone else's interests, not the citizenry's.
Will he stay or will he go?
"First five-eighth Richie Mo’unga to join All Blacks in South Africa"- Stuff
There has to be some good news alongside the fact that Luxon is still there, that Luxon by sacking a senior minister has proved that they are not united, that Tory media commentators are bollocking National, and alongside the fact that Labour's candidate, Rakesh Naidoo, has been vindicated with a formal apology from his boss.