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6:00 am, August 7th, 2026 - 44 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
What I (and I am sure many others) picked up on yesterday was the fact that Luxon said (paraphrasing) that he only wanted National ministers around him in cabinet so that he could get things done.
For this to happen there would have to be a return to the awful, completely unfair and unrepresentative, FPP system. That is what Luxon really wants.
Peter Shirtcliffe lives!
No Numpties for Luxon!
(Nary a Numpty in National).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361016923/christopher-luxon-doubles-down-mmp-referendum-while-chris-bishop-says-its-not-party-policy
It's a solid yeah na from the other nats, luxon is toast
Let's reprise Nationals view on democracy:
Fewer voters (voter suppression)
Fewer elections (four year terms)
Unfair results (back to FPP)
All fairly typical, deeply managerial, anti-democratic views for a c-suite mediocrity like Luxon.
Sanc you forgot:
Retain system of secret donations that massively favours National, ACT and NZF
And, BG, you forgot secret access for lobbyists to write policy!
Ram-raiding law-making through Parliament.
Retrospectively changing Law even when there are Court cases active.
Just following Trump's example.
The fact the Republicans get away with it, has been enormously encouraging to wannabe fascists, all over the world.
I get the impression that Luxon feels he is invincible.
No one is going to roll him this close to the election, and regarding his coalition partners, he can say what he likes, just as they do.
Win Win for the ego!
The leaders of National, ACT and New Zealand First all believe themselves invincible at this point.
Could make for a spectacular conflagration!
Luxon is toast and is dragging his Party down with him.
The Leader of NZ First [Peters] doesn’t want Luxon to be rolled by his own Party [National].
Luxon cannot roll/fire Peters.
Peters is lifting up his Party [NZ First] at the expense of National.
The worst bread & circuses we’ve had in a long time here in NZ, possibly since the "schnapps” election.
Seymour has been too quiet for his own good.
"Seymour has been too quiet for his own good."
My thoughts exactly.
Nope, he’s a dead man walking with nothing to lose anymore (and nothing to gain).
comment elsewhere that the MMP brainfart is him trying to get fired because he's had enough.
Could be, but I don’t find that plausible.
I think L..on was chosen to lead because he was the man who could hold the bridge and say 'You shall not pass' to those endeavouring to move to better ground.
That combined with a musical note which became the Pied Piper of Hamelin who led the children away after he dealt to the rats and didn't get as much money as he wanted. Money is everything and will hold L…on to his post.
Captain and Tennille sang about love for a person/people, but special people like Luxon have a love of money and things. But it's a nice song for us, 'Love will keep us together'.
"No one is going to roll him this close to the election"
I'll take that bet …
I reckon he's for the biff. I reckon it's today 🙂
No, the latest poll has saved him for a day (Curia/Taxpayers).
Which ironically is good news for National's opponents (on this at least, Hooton is right).
Doesn't Paula Bennett look ecstatic these days!
That’s odd, I thought the housing market was in decline and house prices were falling or staying static!?
What makes her so ecstatic? Drugs?
Maybe she's coming back to lead the National Party.
Falling house prices mean forced sales eventually, money for jam for RE industry. Then the market recovers and everyone wants in, rolling in the clover. The bit between the peak and bite (where we've at now) is hard work for agents, vendors still want peak price and buyers (and banks) are shy.
The other explanation… her firm has a reputation down here, well the whole industry has for that matter. A few profiled persons have dropped out of sight for "health reasons"
For the record, and to avoid consternation (amongst the gullible), I think Paula Bennett’s health is splendid.
Na macurio bennets next political foray will be as act leader
That would concern me greatly.
She has a Pauline Hanson? look yes.
If they roll luxon who's your pick.
Mine is bishop, if they have brains, willis has lost all credibility.
I reckon simeon us the dark horse, he'd be sneaky enough to get round enough climbers to help him
I love speculation!
Willis has gone gaunt, as Bennett did – she'll not be leader – she'll slide sideways to something much more lucrative (as Bennett did).
Simeon's no dark horse, he's a shady pony. His fundamental Christian stuff smells bad, but then again, so did/does Luxon's – they managed to bury that well, didn't they!
He's too tiny, to toddler-like to take the helm. Once he's bloated by wealth, bald and richer, he'll have a better chance.
They're going to go Stanford.
Mercurio – let's have fun and chance money – what about running a book?
Latest Curia poll just now:
Lab 27.8 Gre 10.1 TPM 1.5=39.4
Nat 31.0 NZF 9.1 ACT 7.3=47.4
Opp 6.1
Not good. Not that dissimilar to Roy Morgan.
The only crumbs of comfort are NZF slipping, this is a Farrar poll and Labour has since this poll released good policy. Also very odd that 7% is not allocated to any of the above parties.
Reid Research's poll will be interesting-hopefully will buck the trend.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/925138/coalition-still-in-position-to-form-government-in-new-taxpayers-union-curia-poll
So this Bernie Sanders interview concerning the strong-left revival of candidates and some successful politicians in the US, skips around the hard question:
Is the Democratic Party as capable of its own Tea Party-to-MAGA revival that the Republicans went through over a decade without actually splitting apart into two parties?
Just because the Republicans held it together through their decade of radicalisation, doesn't mean that the Democrats can.
Meantime, full support to Saint Bernie as he fights the fight of his final Senate term.
Much of which Bernie said could also apply to this country. Maybe someone needs to forward the clip on to Hipkins?
Done!
Writ large right here for sure!
41% of voters on consistent polling are rejecting Labour and National.
I do not want to see our Parliamentary party makeup turn into something like France, Canada, or worse Israel.
Given the state of the economy and Luxons unpopularity, the Curia poll, if repeated, represents a complete repudiation of Hipkins cowardice, lack of vision and Labour's do nothing dollar store Starmerism.
I would not put it as strongly as that, but there is a kernel of truth there. Keeping a defeated PM was always going to put a fixed ceiling on Labour's support. There was never going to be any surge of enthusiasm, only a "meh, but better than the alternative". Which on balance I think will be just enough come November (unless Luxon is dumped, in which case the Nats become favourites).
Ironically, Labour 2026 have done the same as National 2023. Luxon saddled himself with Winston because swing voters were not inspired by the official opposition. NZ First (not then in Parliament) became the "outsider opposition".
Ditto, Opportunity Party now. So the same problem is likely for Hipkins … win a majority, but with a partner you didn't want, but who you helped.
There are perfectly legitimate criticisms to make of Hipkins and Labour: that they could be bolder, that some of the policy programme still feels too cautious for the scale of the problems voters feel they face, and that Hipkins needs to articulate a much clearer sense of what a Labour government is actually for.
But "complete repudiation" seems a stretch.
My concern is almost the opposite. I don't think Labour's fundamental problem is an absence of policy or courage. I think it needs to do a much better job of anchoring policy in a coherent political story.
Tell people what all of this is for. Tell them whose side you're on. Tell them what kind of New Zealand you're trying to build, and why you believe we can build it together.
That's the bit I think is still missing.
And unlike the increasingly fatalistic argument that the electorate simply doesn't want what Hopkins is offering, it's a problem Labour can actually fix.
Let's take a moment to acknowledge Labour's unique and brilliant strategy.
If they were 40% in the polls, Luxon would be gone already, and Opportunity would be nowhere.
By deliberately not attracting more voters, Labour are keeping Luxon in his job. The same Luxon who has categorically ruled out Opportunity.
And who will now be asked about them again, and again, and again … until he screams "I don't give a flying f**k about f***ing Opportunity!". About a week before election day, sealing his fate.
You might want to just inhale from the brown paper bag for a bit.
All of the Labour caucus are focusing on removing Luxon and National from power.
Labour are not "deliberately not attracting more voters".
Labour remain the consistent improvers of New Zealand that they have been since 1999. I'm sure I don't need to give you the list of improvements that no party has touched:
Kiwibank, Kiwisaver, NZSuperfund, Fonterra, China FTA, CPTPP, Working For Families, single integrated public health system, a high and hard Bright Line test for capital, higher taxes for over $180k income, Winter Fuel subsidy, total energy production at 90% renewable and rising, etc.
It is well time that the left understand that Labour has to lock in change that is so good and so popular that even the most venal of capitalist govenrmetns would not dare remove them. That is why they are so gradualist.
I appreciate impatience truly I do.
But.
Anything the Greens try while in Government, unless Labour locks it deep into NZ's DNA, will be swept aside. Only Labour can do that.
Labour are not "deliberately not attracting more voters".
Your irony detector is on the blink.
Brilliant strategy? Keeping a guy who gave labour it's worst ever electorate result, keeping the same candidates like white who nearly lost mount Albert, and keeping Damien O'Connor, Deb Russell, Jan Tineti, While parachuting failed candidates from 2023 into other electorates around the country where they have no relationship with the communities, running on the exact same level of low aspiration, low target nothing's as gst off fruit and vegetables in 2023, here's a couple cheap buses and doctors visits a year and a fund that sounds good but is too small a seed to achieve anything.
The UK just got rid of Kier Starmer, why on earth would NZ elect its own Kier Starmer and that's exactly who Hipkins is!
As useless as luxon is atleast he's talking about nation building and electoral reform and extending parliamentary terms, labour are absolutely allergic to nation building and have been since the Clark era.
Labour should be calling for a referendum on the monarchy, an upper house, a four year term, it should have policies to get power prices and food costs down, it should be promising to hire more nurses and giving nurses free training if they stay in NZ for x amount of years.
Instead we have a wildly unlikable leader of the labour party who on his best day was polling David shearer numbers, offering nothing that will do a jot of difference, promising not to change sfa and the same unlikable team behind him that was rejected in 2023
The only reason labours polls have been so good this last 8 months have been because the public hasn't seen much of labour because the govt dominates the news, the second labour gets equal news coverage and labours polls tumble because people don't like this leader, nor this caucus.
Hipkins should do the honourable thing, if labour has another couple polls below 30% he should pull a little and Kieran should be elected unopposed as he's the only one in the entire caucus people outside the beltway actually like.
Labour is going to get less votes than it did in 2023, now that Top is a viable option no male under fourty is voting labour or the greens, it's top all the way.
The left does not have a high enough majority with women voters to counter its deficit with male voters, the Democrats thought they could win 2024 without men look what happened
People hate Luxon, but everytime they see Hipkins they remember they hate him more and he'll be on tv a lot more until election day
We need to get rid of this govt. Hipkins has to go, the caucus behind him TBH is the dregs remaining from the Ardern years and if we lose this election, anyone whose been in parliament for more than three terms should be retiring before the 2029 election
Even more wrong than Ad above.
OK, I'll spell it out.
1) Obviously Labour are trying to win.
2) Obviously Hipkins is not connecting well enough.
3) Obviously Hipkins is remaining as leader, and it's entirely pointless to suggest or hope otherwise.
4) Obviously the Opportunity Party are benefitting from the public's low opinion of BOTH Luxon and Hipkins.
5) (and not obviously, it's the unknown factor) Luxon may or may not remain leader of the National party.
For the skim-readers I'll copy my comment from 10.1 again …
There was never going to be any surge of enthusiasm, only a "meh, but better than the alternative". Which on balance I think will be just enough come November (unless Luxon is dumped, in which case the Nats become favourites).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/925138/coalition-still-in-position-to-form-government-in-new-taxpayers-union-curia-poll
This poll is inconsistent with the recent Ipsos Issues Monitor, which showed "Labour is considered best placed to tackle 15 of the top 20 issues…".
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/848032/labour-considered-most-capable-of-managing-new-zealanders-top-five-concerns-survey
"The Labour party is considered most capable of managing all of the top five concerns for New Zealanders – including the economy, the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor has revealed.
National leads on just one of the top 20 issues: crime/law and order.
The quarterly survey asks 1000 New Zealanders what they think are the three most important issues facing the country, and the political parties they believe are most capable of handling them. …
The top five issues
The cost of living (62 percent) remained the top concern since May's survey, and healthcare/hospitals (38 percent) was still considered second most important, though it's been slowly trending downwards.
National's perceived ability to manage healthcare weakened significantly, reaching its lowest point since February 2024, while Labour's at its highest level in nearly five years.
The economy (34 percent) held at third place, but Labour overtook National as the party best placed to manage it – spiking from 28 percent in May to 34 percent in July, while National dropped from 33 percent to 30 percent.
Labour also took a decent lead in the perception of its ability to tackle housing (22 percent) – ranked the fourth most important issue.
Unemployment (20 percent) returned to the top five concerns, reaching a level last seen in late 2020 and overtaking concerns about petrol prices…
Other trends
Labour is considered best placed to tackle 15 of the top 20 issues…".
Due to NZ's worsening socioeconomic situation, the top concerns and main issues for most people have likely not changed. If they believe Labour would be the most effective party in addressing these challenges, the results of the Taxpayers Union Curia poll seem illogical and contradictory.