Open Mike 01/10/2026

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38 comments on “Open Mike 01/10/2026”

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  1. 1

    Worsening prospects!

    ""Until now the New Zealand government has been able to have it both ways, appearing to take action on an international stage over climate by making speeches about supporting the Paris climate agreement but significantly rolling back local climate action and policy."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/1665147/stakes-could-not-be-higher-concern-over-claim-nz-breached-fta-climate-commitments

    "(University of Canterbury professor of political science and international relations Bronwyn Hayward) said the case noted many climate rollbacks in New Zealand but the "most serious trigger" appeared to be the move to prevent tort lawsuits like Mike Smith's against big greenhouse gas emitters, and the revelations of secretive lobbying that came alongside it.

    "These actions have tainted New Zealand's reputation as an honest broker and added to the seriousness of this case," Hayward said.

    Reply
    2. 1.2

      Shane Jones should get on a Zoom call to these pesky Dutch, with his Drill Baby Drill hat and Bye Bye Kermit shirt on and explain our case.

      Reply
        1. 1.2.1.1

          TBF, at least those farmers have a plan for lowering nitrates in the local water. Most pollies here lack the courage to legislate even that.

          Let alone emissions that impact the global environment.

          Reply
    3. 1.3

      Farmers won’t be doing anything cos they don’t have to said Simon WhaaaaAAAT!?! the famous author of the marketing text book:

      step one. Call the customer a cunt!

      and his popular podcast: 100%….suck this hahaha! It’s very popular in Europe.

      Reply
  2. 2

    Shoutout to the thousands of Brazilian immigrants who now reside here: hope you are tracking Lula v Bolsonaro Junior which comes to the vote in 2 weeks.

    If Lula wins, there is still a chance for a BRICS counter-hegemony to US South American dominance.

    If Bolsonaro wins, Rubio's State Department will take effective control of the Brazilian Transitional Government, and through that influence over Brazil's massive oil and rare earth resources.

    And Bolsonaro will exit BRICS, which will also damage any chance of a proper alternative to US dominance over dollar trade for exports and imports around the world.

    And if Lula wins again, and by some magic doesn't get arrested and jailed and the election hijacked as has occurred by the US in most other Southern American states in the last two years, that's one more big signal that the US can and will be fully bracketed across the Americas.

    Ther's a surprising weight riding on this Brazilian election. So shoutout to all Brazilians here who are tracking it.

    Reply
      1. 2.1.1

        Recent polls are still squeaky good for Lula, but guarantee right now the US State Dept and CIA are in this buying up media space like there's no tomorrow to overturn for Bolsonaro.

        Rubio's South America Donro Doctrine is in full effect.

        Reply
  3. 3

    The media are slowly coming to grips with the new reality of this election. A good overview here from Stuff:

    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop among top ministers who could lose their seats as election overhang possible | Stuff

    Tim Hurdle (Nat) says:

    “So some of the seats like Mt Roskill and Banks Peninsula are held on very thin margins and there are seats that have often been held by Labour that may come back into the Labour fold,” Hurdle said.

    They want Willis and Goldsmith, they don't want backbenchers in marginals.

    Now we just need sleepy reporters on the campaign trail to wake up and ask Luxon: "Why are you campaigning here for this electorate MP when you really want them to lose?". And then keep asking when he runs away.

    Reply
    1. 3.1

      The article talks for ages about how National will create an overhang then it says they will win 37 electorates which is exactly what their share of the vote would give them in seats. So no overhang.

      D'oh.

      That accords with my own back of envelope calculations. Labour lost a lot of seats last election on narrow margins….it will win most back and others are in play potentially too.

      Bomber has this completely wrong on TDB.

      Reply
    2. 3.2

      It won't really matter if willis goes , English and jey will just shive their arms up some other hapless puppet and keep running the same play.

      Reply
    2. 5.2

      From the article: "[Albanese] and I talked about that when he visited New Zealand, I think it was July 2023," Hipkins said on Thursday. "We agreed that we would get that work done within 12 months. What's taken them so long? Why the delay? What's happened at the New Zealand end that means it hasn't happened?"

      What seems to have been the Govt thinking: "let's sit on it so we have a pre-election 'win' to parade our effectiveness, even though it's still not implemented 3 years later, oops we’ll leave that part out”

      Reply
  6. 6

    Following on my (many) previous comments advocating for our Young People.

    Job climate remains bleak for new graduates

    RNZ has attended a number of ceremonies over the past few days and students spoken to by RNZ were largely pessimistic about their job prospects.

    Environmental Science. You would think thats something a Future looking Govt would value and encourage? You know…Climate Change Consequences and all?…Of course excepting the anti-science numnuts of NACT1……

    Those in the Link seem a varied,diverse and Interesting group of Young People.

    Chloe Cameron is among them. Last week she picked up her degree in Environmental Science and Biology from the University of Auckland, but isn't feeling optimistic about her near-term career prospects.

    "No-one's even sending rejections they're just leaving you empty," she said.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/education/1665520/job-climate-remains-bleak-for-new-graduates

    I note AI was mentioned in the Link a few times. I have made many previous comments as to its being somewhat useful….as a tool. Sadly I see its being used, and very much more coming, as a tool of elimination. Not by terminators…but by those people (further in Links) who can see only profit as imperative . In NZ we have NACT1 and their instruments (sir Roche in this example..)

    How to cut public sector jobs? A much more aggressive approach to AI

    "It will mean a much [more] aggressive/targeted approach to AI.

    It would also be "noisy" in the public and media, said Roche, but he would strongly defend it.

    Oh really?

    "If it was my business and my money this is what I would do."

    And surely we have seen this kind of BS before?

    The papers do not model how many jobs AI might remove or enhance services while they do that.

    They do not delve into how much the AI rollout will eat out of savings – some commentators have warned AI developers will likely ramp up the price of tokens and licensing once competition sifts out the winners.

    Rather, officials said the exact savings were still to be determined following detailed decisions on implementing the transformational elements.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/1667042/how-to-cut-public-sector-jobs-a-much-more-aggressive-approach-to-ai

    And a warning? See exactly who is pushing AI ….(and I am looking intently at the group of who, none of them friends of Humanity ! )

    “Trump’s made his big call on AI. Humanity’s fate may ride on him being right

    President Donald Trump held court on the White House drive Tuesday (all times local), surrounded by the tech moguls who, in their own estimation, hold the planet's fate in their hands.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/1665137/trump-s-made-his-big-call-on-ai-humanity-s-fate-may-ride-on-him-being-right

    Reply
    1. 6.1

      Yes next year wag junior has to decide, very interested in uni. But I'm quietly thinking if maybe it ain't worth it, and am working out which direction I should be discussing

      Reply
      2. 6.1.2

        Have just been through this with my kid (last year)

        In order for uni to stack up as a valid option, IMO, you need to be looking at:

        • Academic kid – someone who thrives in the academic system (if your kid is 'over' school – it may not be a great option)
        • Self-motivated. Are they personally actively interested in learning the subjects? Do they set their own goals, and manage their time well. Do they cope well with achieving in papers that they have less interest in (but still have to pass)?
        • Degree. What do they want to study, and what is the pay off? A vocational degree (health science, veterinary, dentistry, teaching, engineering, etc. – anything that requires the piece of paper for entry) can all still pay off. Doing a generic commerce, or BA, not so much.
        • What is the AI impact in their field. For example, I'd regard all computer science degrees as largely a waste of time, the field is moving so quickly that by the time the topic gets into the curriculum it's outdated. Firms employ 19-year-olds directly, rather than 23 year olds with a degree.
        • What is the alternative, non uni, pathway? Do they have a different plan (apprenticeship, direct to workforce, etc.)? What skills do they already have (part time work, volunteer etc.), what contacts do they or you, or your wider whanau and connections have to get them that entry-level job. NB: this is about getting them the opportunity – they have to make the impression themselves. [ Friend who runs an engineering company – automatically discards any calls from parents trying to set up an interview – if the kid doesn't care enough to call themselves, then they aren't serious about the job.]

        Finally. What does their life look like next year, without either a uni placement or a job (what does Plan C look like). Is uni a good (if very expensive) option to keep them busy/engaged if the job doesn't eventuate? Do they look at volunteering? Building skills in other areas? Being available and eager for part time, short term work, and unattractive shift options? Things they'll be unlikely to do if they're at uni.

        Our outcome was a temporary 'hours available' contract in the industry he wanted to work in – with his preferred employer. Mixed with contract work for other firms in the same industry. It's been an uneven 9 months – with a lot of unattractive shift options (late night/early morning) – and patches of low wages (when there just wasn't a lot of work around). He's supplemented with some contract work (supermarket product demos, trade shows, etc.) – entirely outside his field – but work is work, and money is money. But he's just parlayed this into a permanent job – with a nice salary bump – and he's really happy with the outcome.

        He did have uni as a back-up plan. I wasn't keen (not against uni – I have a post-grad degree, myself – but we are very different people) – but I thought that he wouldn't be really engaged – and it could end up as an expensive waste of time.

        He did go into this situation, however, with significant front of house experience – working in customer-facing roles – and with increasing responsibility – in his last 3 years at school (and even a bit before). So he knew what both work and study looked like – and was highly motivated.

        Reply
        1. 6.1.2.1

          What is the AI impact in their field. For example, I’d regard all computer science degrees as largely a waste of time, the field is moving so quickly that by the time the topic gets into the curriculum it’s outdated. Firms employ 19-year-olds directly, rather than 23 year olds with a degree.

          I’m doing a lot of AI code work these days. What it brings home to me is is just how limited AI coding really is. Really good at rifling through old code to find where that damn bug is given a few clear hints about what the detected problem is. Competent at writing a fix. Very good at ramping up greenfield framework code for a clearly defined project. Has problems figuring out how to write efficient code through a lack of oversight of what the targets are. Awesome at using open source libraries and wrapping them, but sloppy on the edge cases mostly because every LLM writes simplistic unit tests.

          Mostly been maintaining code in c#/.net/javascript/vue/knockout/mssql, upgrading in php/wordpress/mysql/javascript/vue, writing greenfield in c++23/javascript/vue/grpc/uv stacks. Plus some experimentation on if it makes rust coding less aggravating. Using GPT 5.5/6, Claude Opus 5/5.5, Gemini 3.7 Flash but generally having best results in GPT. AI is really good at getting rid of the cognitive switches jumping around different systems.

          As far as I can see once you get past the vibe prototypes, the initial hype, and simple bug/feature fixes, all that is really going to happen is that experienced programmers get work done faster and with fewer hands (ie junior programmers). But the basis in understanding the computing structure gets way more important to having a long career.

          Firms employ 19-year-olds directly

          For a while that will happen – entrepreneurs and middle management being what they are.

          But that route has the scaling problems the same as it always has. Becomes the fast in and fast out because they don’t have the intellectual structure to hang change on. They can vibe an application, but it usually isn’t maintainable when the author gets a new obsession like the opposite gender or holidays, or they can’t scale the application up on increasingly complicated support structures because they don’t know the basics.

          So far when you look past the post-covid layoffs, what you see what I think is two trends.

          Senior engineers exiting companies (often to form their own) because they get bored dealing with having to deal with the reading, checking and fixing AI slop code that has some really irritating bugs written by 19 or 23yo who don’t know what they are doing. Nappy training junior programmers human or AI is always as boring as hell. AI just makes that more extreme. I suspect we’re going to find a new class of engineers or AI who train juniors to be competent.

          Senior engineers running agents to write and maintain code, often their own. I’m finding that to be kind of fun. Witness the upgrades to the standard, which has been on my todo list since 2024, but keeps getting bumped by paid work. Had a slowdown in my paid ‘part-time work’. Used it to ramp skills in using AI. Finding that to be pretty productive in both paid and unpaid work.

          I’m anticipating a shift in the types of skills required. But I seriously doubt that it is going to reduce the demand for software engineers. It will probably just shift the career pathways yet again.

          Reply
  7. 7

    Lobbyists are the new old-plague to fret & froth over, it seems, and every political party except National and ACT seems to have a say about it and there’s even some alignment among them, except for National and ACT.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/29/campaign-cut-through-lobbying-reform-gains-cross-party-support-but-national-and-act-stay-silent/

    Unfortunately, to my knowledge, none of the parties is addressing the OIA elephant in the room. To me it seems incomprehensibly inconsistent to try clean up politics by going after lobbying and do fuck-all about the increased thwarting of the OIA.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/28/officials-crack-on-behind-closed-doors-to-limit-reach-of-the-oia-under-cover-of-election/

    To argue that it’s an operational issue, not a political one, and that it’s a Public Service problem is disingenuous and offends our intelligence.

    Reply
  8. 8

    Lianne Dalziel almost choked when she received a call asking her if she would (or could?) consider joining the board of the Taxpayers’ Union (TPU).

    She eviscerates TPU and compares them to real unions (spoiler: TPU is not a real union at all), and she’s read Nicky Hager’s new book Dirty Work, which she links to frequently – yes, it’s worth a read.

    I noted that the Taxpayers’ Union was referred to on the evening news as the “lobby group that advocates for accountability, transparency and free speech”, which is ironic considering it does not offer transparency itself. Jordan Williams said in an interview just before Dirty Work came out that the reason it had changed from being an incorporated society to a limited company was because it was worried it might be exposed to information requests. Whether that would have been the case is a moot point, but highlights how committed it is to transparency.

    Of course, TPU frequently use the OIA in their fights against other lobby groups.

    Looking back at the announcement launching the Taxpayers’ Union, we find one of its goals was to halt public funding that lobby groups receive to campaign and lobby government for policy and law changes.

    The trouble is that these groups are those that lobby for the public good – for example smokefree, alcohol harm reduction, and anything that supports the restoration of our environment.

    The she draws attention to the unsavoury links between TPU and the tobacco industry & associated strong lobby, highlighted in Dirty Work.

    But never mind the reality of the [tobacco] product, there is money to be made from the industries that would be detrimentally affected by the success of any public health campaign, and the Taxpayers’ Union was established to take full advantage of that, and removing the influence of health promotion NGOs was an early target.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/30/the-union-thats-not-a-union-the-all-too-transparent-taxpayers-union/

    Bonus point: Eric Crampton, who represents the brainier brother of TPU, the New Zealand Initiative (NZI), attempts a nice look-over-there diversion in his cunning comment (https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/30/the-union-thats-not-a-union-the-all-too-transparent-taxpayers-union/#comment-693565).

    Reply
  9. 9

    Labour’s Mt Albert candidate Helen White comes across strong in this write-up by Jonathan Milne.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/10/01/mt-albert-and-the-unspoken-clash-of-the-campaign/

    I’ll refrain from commenting on Quilae Wong and her TOP other than to say that Wong & TOP may be or wannabe colour-blind (not an asset when you’re a wannabe fashion designer once upon a time), the NZ electorate is not (yet?).

    Helen White fires up

    Labour’s candidate is definitely the night’s most passionate speaker. She seems genuinely angry talking about her constituents who are struggling with the cost of living, saying she knows couples who are both working jobs but still needing food parcels in order to get by.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/30-09-2026/live-from-the-great-mt-albert-debate

    Chris Hipkins also is angry about these issues and is warming up too. In contrast, Luxon’s spudless campaign lacks lustre and Nicola Willis is coming off her Prefu high and looks like to be having a downer. Perhaps they need to be Penked a little.

    Reply
    1. 9.1

      Yeah, I dont get the bagging of Helen White? She's been an Employment lawyer working with EPMU and Amalgamated Workers Union, and an Advocate of Workers rights/protections? Seems Talking up the Left misses the UP?

      Reply
  11. 11

    At the May Budget, Treasury put Crown spending at 32.6 percent of GDP.

    National are now promising to reduce core Crown spending below 30 percent of GDP.

    National's previous fiscal policy was to drive down spending towards 30 percent.

    Labour set its spending cap at 33 percent of GDP in the medium term.

    Nicola Willis said the difference between a 30 percent target and 33 percent target amounted to about $10 billion a year.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/1631467/national-sharpens-spending-pledge-on-eve-of-treasury-update

    She needs to be asked what's she planning on cutting to save that $10 billion a year.?

    Reply
    1. 11.1

      Treasury's concept of "core Crown spending” is magical thinking; it excludes all capital spending, all expenditure on entities outside Minsistries and Departments ie nothing of all the SOE's and other vast volumes of entities. This concept is just made up by Treasury with no useful basis in anything other than an arbitrary line for its Minister to feel about and repeat for conservative commentators.

      It is a spectacularly anti-progressive concept.

      Don't buy into it.

      Reply
      1. 11.1.1

        In reply to the government belief that 'ai will replace the public service', here's an astute comment from someone who uses it in their job.

        'The problem often is that management misunderstands whose roles it is enabling. AI tooling makes for workflows [in my field of data/space engineering] that, frankly, would completely bypass management and leadership. In practice, AI is a better coordinator and workflow allocator than managers could ever hope to be. The real jobs and expertise that AI replaces, are actually all the management and flunkie roles. AI otherwise makes my job faster and smoother, which has never ever actually led to job loss, just job and task expansion.'
        https://applink.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1wugfmb/comment/pd3xehi/?utm_source=app_first_navigation&mweb_loid=t2_2nx3iiqtg1&ext-referrer=EXTERNAL

        Makes you think. Another issue is outsourcing overseas all the ai data manipulation and model training. The NZ government could do it here to develop and use NZ expertise, plus retain data and model sovereignty. Currently ai services are being sold at a loss. Betcha the price of delivery changes once the ink is on the contract.

        The comments on this topic everywhere I read emphasise that dumb managers who don't understand their own businesses glom onto ai hyped to them, not as a productivity improver, but as a wage-bill cutter. Luxon is one of those dummies. And he is in charge of a country, not a company.

        Reply
      2. 11.1.2

        Health, education, welfare and NZ Superannuation are the biggest areas of government spending coming from core Crown expenses.

        It also covers the spending on Law and Order, Finance Costs, Transport, Economic, and Defence Services.

        https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2026/at-a-glance/taxpayers-money.htm

        The Taxpayers Union want that spending cut to 25% of GDP. See vid below. About 11.50 in

        And this is what Bernard Hickey has to say about core Crown expenses and the 30-30 rule

        Reply
      3. 11.1.3

        For example, Health NZ is not included in core Crown Expenses.

        While it is uncertain how much funding the Government will approve for Health NZ cost pressures, based on past funding amounts and the indicative funding track it is likely to represent a significant portion of the Government’s current Budget operating allowances.

        https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/prefu26.pdf [numbered page 69]

        Perhaps Simeon Brown will hire another 50-odd nurses, if he gets a second term as Butcher of Health and that’ll blow the budget.

        Reply
  12. 12

    Thinking about fuel taxes. There was an advertisement about roads and driving long distances. But it is a whine about there not being enough good places handy for failing and demented old people. One coloured full page ad in local paper this week. Who paid for it, and what is its desired reaction? Looking at the numerous relevant headings on Google, it is a mass marketing dump. (Searched: 'News advert from aged care association about long drives)

    Headed Aged Care Association NZ, picturing lined old man with worried look behind wheel of vehicle. The text 'Peter drives 239 kms each day to see his wife. He shouldn't have to.' It is ostensibly about more local aged residential care needed, and has address at bottom thelongdrive.co.nz.

    I'm confused. There are young people dying homeless and comfortless. Old people are living longer and have been refused the right to decide when to take their own lives with anyone who does being labelled as suicide, thus hurting family. Anyone who helps can face charges and have been imprisoned. The hospital and medical bills for keeping old people alive to last breath grows apace. The papers are full of ads showing nice little units in residential care with people laughing and toasting each other with wine glasses.

    Sickening how we can't get a system that helps younger people who can't afford housing at the inflated prices government has encouraged. But virtually farms old people to profit from their savings. We need government that enables people's good lives with certain freedoms instead of rigidity. Unreasonable fines and punishment can result for anything as any person gets about. For the elderly, or even those dying, the strict rules are OTT. The medical class may want to help but must be wary when people are just getting old or possibly demented. (As an old person I cause a lot of waste, I could build cute little dolls houses out of empty pill tubes, and sell them as fundraisers for needy people perhaps?)

    Meanwhile all roads lead to Rome? Or the palaces of the wealthy who blast us with advertising aimed at where we are weak and vulnerable, and can be stripped of every penny we possess, We sink from dignity and morale into debility and madness, and stress or impoverish our children to provide suitable care, and sadly leave them no viable future in a community respecting all.

    Interesting – a number of NZ newspapers and sites are carrying this long-drive message. There is also a UK site which refers to Chemistry and Trending Now. Apparently it's set up by AI power. I got it on this search: https://www.marketing-now.co.uk/article/337202/a-239-km-drive-each-day-just-to-see-his-wife.-chemistry-highlights-the-plight-of-nzs-aged-care-sector-with-the-long-drive-campaign

    In partnership with The Aged Care Association and Anthem, Chemistry has delivered another powerful campaign to try and bring about change for our aged care sector.

    Our mission: The top trending news all in one place, for free Trending Now has the vision of becoming the largest B2B newsletter-first business and the leading AI-powered newsletter business.

    <

    p style=”text-align:left”>With a growing portfolio of newsletters and an engaged subscriber base, Trending Now also provides readers with websites that are easy to navigate, each delivering rolling news 24/7 and enabling brands to submit press releases to appear in newsletters and also on websites.'…

    Reply
    1. 12.1

      Aged Care Association: 'The services our members provide include rest home, hospital, dementia, psychogeriatric care, and short-term care.' Ie, the private aged care sector, with Anthem the PR company who created the 'long drive' campaign.

      At a guess, I would say this campaign is lobbying for government subsidies for this private sector, much as the corporate daycare sector sops up heaps of subsidy dosh for Early Childhood Care.

      Searched using duckduckgo engine and query: what is ‘Aged Care Association’ nz, and same for Anthem.

      Reply
  13. 13

    The asymmetric society – aged care can have so many helpers and the young, poor and with health problems without financial promise, so few. And this AI program seems cross-nation. I don't see it as being wholely virtuous.

    Reply
  14. 14

    This in Scoop about bikes on footpaths. The law has just come in, but there have been cyclists etc down my road for ages. But the scooters, the motorised scooters, the cycles with teenagers on them – are they adults? – the cycles with motors on them, and me when I use my mobility scooter, also the opening of a new 'walkway' along a scenic route, all will be affected. (Is it appropriate to call new paths walkways now?) How much relaxed ambling can anyone do?

    And the blind, and deaf, how can they cope. And for hearing, warnings of bells or hooters that others are coming, that's insolent, when the paths are there for walkers use primarily. They shouldn't have to shrink to the sides for the lordly machines. And adults are only allowed to ride if they are accompanying children. Who is going to argue with a lone adult or teenager? Is there a code of behaviour, particularly when someone is struck, maybe knocked over? Do they pay ACC?

    What a disgrace it all is. Cycling is in and walking and walkers are out. People wanting to ride on footpaths, walkways should be licensed, annually, with little plates attached front and rear.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2609/S00984/new-rule-will-put-pedestrians-at-risk.htm A new rule that allows bikes to be ridden on the footpath will put pedestrians at risk. This rule permits children up to 12 years of age and adults accompanying them to ride bikes on the footpath, and is part of a package of transport changes that will come into effect on 1 October…

    Reply

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