We live in strange times.
Normally I would completely ignore the seat of Tamaki. Based in East Auckland it is one of the wealthiest areas of the city.
And normally elections inevitably result in right wing candidates winning.
The candidates on the right are at least superficially impressive. Act’s James Christmas is a lawyer who was previously highly placed on National’s list and who just missed out on Parliament last term. This goes to show how interchangable the candidates are.
National’s Mahesh Muralidhar is from a tech backgound and has strong business credentials.
In normal times one of these candidates would win.
But the seat offers an interesting juxtaposition to Mt Albert and if there is a chance of Melissa Lee winning Mt Albert because of splits on the left there is also a chance of Labour’s Max Harris winning Tamaki because of splits on the right. Act and National are competing head to head and if they split the vote well enough then a modest share of the electorate vote could win.
I understand that it is heresy to suggest that Labour could win the bluest of blue urban seats.
But there are a few forces in play.
The teal movement in Australia shows how much the right wing culture war crap is despised in inner city suburbs. These are areas full of intelligent people. Suggesting that climate change is some sort of left wing conspiracy or that immigrants should be feared or that “traditional” family values should be preferred do not go down with large parts of the local population, particulary with immigrants who comprise a fairly significant part of the electorate and more importantly with women who comprise half of the electorate.
Your climate change denying anti diversity anti intellectual anti woman lines are a turn off for many.
And when the wind is blowing strongly these seats are vulnerable.
In 1987 I remember watching with astonishment how Judith Tizard almost won Remuera. Admittedly this was the time of Rogernomics of which the wealthy approved wholeheartedly but it shows that people will vote on perceptions and principles, whatever they are.
And our previous candidate, someone who I know and someone who is an utterly decent human being, did not have the cut through that Max is achieving.
Last time the National candidate, the odious and catholically challenged Simon O’Connor scored 33.5% of the vote, Van Velden scored 43.6% and the Labour candidate achieved 21.9% of the vote. It does not take much imagination to see how an increase of the Labour vote and a split of the right wing vote could result in a quite unusal occurrance, the winning of Rob Muldoon’s seat by a left winger.
In 2020 I went out on a limb and predicted that Vanushi Walters had a fighting chance of winning Upper Harbour. In part because I was getting leaks of information from the right castigating their candidate and in part because I thought she was a great candidate. I claim bragging rights for the result.
And it should be noted that Max is running a really, really, really strong campaign.
Max is a great candidate. I have known him since he was a student activist and member of the legendary Princess Street branch of the Labour Party. He has matured into a really talented and dedicated lawyer. He is willing to give intellectual grunt and effort to causes that will not necessarily be popular but just because he believes in justice. He speaks well. He is campaigning out of his skin. His events attract huge crowds, he has a really energised team and he has had donations flood in.
He should make it to Parliament on the list. He is part of the next generation of Labour leaders that we have to get over the line and into Parliament so we can reinvigorate and reenergise the Caucus.
But the Tamaki result might be a boilover.
So watch Tamaki. There is the outside chance of a big surprise.
Well telling all those immigrants that a vote for national is also a vote for nzf the xenophobic race baiting wing of the government might help. !!
I voted in Tamaki once.
It was the late 1970's and Muldoon was the MP.
I did not know the Labour candidate so that election (and only that election) I voted something other than Labour.
Bill Andersen always stood in Tamaki for the SUP. I voted for Bill.
"If" I was in Tamaki, Max would get my vote ! A Lefty from the heart..and head : )
Onya Max. All the Best !
PLA Why do you put up such long spacey comments? Can't you manipulate them to make them shorter and more concise? At present they seem to be a lot of hot-air-space which I know isn't the case But reading them takes precious time to sort out the gist, just try differently. will you?
Troll someone else, Aye?
An in depth conversation by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart in The Rest is Politics where they are talking about Brit Gen z and informative poll, might say something applicable to NZAO.
If you go to 27mins you get a bit on corruption worldwide Trump etc which is interesting and then around 29-30m they talk to Vicky Sprat who fronts a presentation called Gen Z, looking at things relating to those aged 14-29. There was a poll done by Ipsos? early in 2026? from Feb-April. (This vid was put up May/26.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s568yek7m8s | It's named question? If Donald Trump is the Most Corrupt President ever. I just caught part of this about Farage and Brit and young people rating Brit politics and thought it would interest you close watchers here. I have to do something else presently so will leave it in your hands – might be helpful to guy in Tamaki. I know what my approach would be to young voters, everyone has their own! So from a distance the Brits might come up with something different.
Looking again at the image I would suggest that Max wears a coloured shirt, light green or with dark stripes in green, would be appropriate along with his suit, and I am being serious here. Go for a look that would encourage the right and make him look with-it, not an idealistic academic which is how they might judge him personally, from the image above.
This is another of the "Vote Nat to dump a Nat" seats. I'm not suggesting that most voters will or should play that game, but it is an option.
If National gain the seat that is one more electorate and one fewer Cabinet Minister off the list. A very possible outcome.
Nothing like being a Labour supporter in a solid blue seat.
Leave it all in the ring Max.
Is this a game of two halves? I don't quite understand the maneuvres, but the left has some practised performers like the Going brothers, with good feints etc. I feel that there aficionados here who know as much or more than the combatants.
Yes – Max Harris is a great candidate but should get in on the list anyway.
I'm more worried about two other excellent candidates who are way down on the list and require Labour to get 40% of the party vote to get in – Gary Payinda (Whangarei) at 49 and Craig Rennie (Wellington Bays) at 51. I know the Labour Party will have internal rules and conventions requiring people to show their talents and take their turn, which I guess is fair enough. But we don't get many heterodox, non-right wing economists like Rennie being available on the left, and when so much of politics is reduced to competing arguments about 'the economy', I would have thought they are like gold. Payinda would in time make an excellent understudy to Verrall, and his only hope at the moment is to come through the middle if Nats (Budd) and NZF (Cocurillo) split the right wing vote.
Interesting how we have to be nimble, yet firmly based, keep to the rules, yet bend them as required. We live in interesting times calling for ironic, enigmatic sayings. In a fast-changing, deteriorating era (now measuring perhaps two decade only) we have to look at the reasons and methods of proceeding in line with the rules.
I find that often the rules are agreed right by all but when questioned as to how applied, people have no idea, don't want to examine their understandings, waste of time. Everyone knows surely, is the response. I found empirically that each individual can have different views; like a prism, same light, same dangling ornament but throws different hues around the room. Rules too, even guidelines, ethics, can be dangling ornaments.
A group I was in high-minded and thoughtful had these as bulleted Values: 'Ethical, Inclusive, Fair, Ecologically Sound, Be the Change.' When I asked for examples of how we would apply each in a real-world situation, they thought it was a waste of time. There were Objectives also which were more detailed. But in the end, part of the group had a different idea, tried to take over the Board, and undermined the project.
The original worthy and forward-looking community objective has died. And that has happened with many things in Kiwiland. Good ideas have to be thought through, worked at, and checked regularly for results, which may indicate experimental methods to trial, be protected from rodents to the body politic, watching for the malaises they can start festering. Primitives and innocents, (including wilful ignorants), can't survive too much confusion, mental 'fog' and narrow academic or technical views which presented with authority, can overtake good methods and mediation about disagreements.