Voter transitions 2011 2014
Peter Ellis from Peter’s Stats Stuff
zzero use
election 2011
Polity: The ENV debate: Some more data
Rob Salmond presents the David Farrar / Steven Joyce / John Key argument that 2011 non voters are a National-leaning bunch. Then he shows that a better look at their own data undermines their claim. This matters because it helps us understand which bloc has more to gain from voter mobilization efforts in 2014. This means the left has a lot more to gain than the right from mobilization in 2014.
Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns
At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.
It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.
NRT: The police are still ignoring electoral crime
The Electoral Commission is saying nothing about apparent police inaction on breaches of the electoral law. Information provided by the Commission reveals that since the beginning of 2011 there have been 113 breaches of the Electoral Act that it’s referred to police for investigation. Not one has resulted in a prosecution. In November, then the prosecution time-limit will kick in, and people will escape justice.
Bias in election coverage?
Like everyone else, I find you can get better political analysis from chicken entrails than from Claire Robinson. But it seems she can count and use a ruler and what she discovered is interesting. In last year’s election campaign, the four biggest newspapers featured 138 pictures of Key to 80 of Goff, and Key’s were twice as large on average.
Government in turmoil over spending cap
Conflict between support parties. The government without the majority needed for legislation. The Nats’ economic plans in turmoil. Thank goodness the country is in such safe, steady hands.
About that mandate
The Right would have us believe that the election was a referendum on asset sales and nothing else. Well, let’s take a closer look at the results of that ‘referendum’. Yeah, there’s no mandate there.
The fateful tea party – a footnote
So much of what shapes the current political landscape traces its roots back to the fateful tea party. But at the personal level, there was some welcome news for cameraman Bradley Ambrose recently.
Another MMP rort?
The media are doing a good job investigating John Banks’ donation history. The Police are presumably also doing theirs, and it seems clear that the matter must end up in Court and the issue of who is telling the truth will be decided by a judge. Some in the media have dismissed the question of any threat to National’s majority. Short-term maybe, long-term I’m not so sure.
National’s big win
Such was the magnitude of the Nat’s “big win” in 2011 that Key has to wake up every morning and do the numbers. His government hangs by a rotten thread. That rotten thread is John Banks.
Firewalls up in smoke
David Cameron’s defence of embattled Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been called a “firewall” that’s failing to hold.
Cameron needs Hunt to stay or else Cameron is the next to go. It is the same for John Key.
As the stench of corruption around John Banks grows, he desperately needs him to stay or else all he loses legitimacy for asset sales and potentially his majority on the issue as well.
No charge for “teapot” cameraman
In breaking news 3News reports that there will be no charge against “teapot” cameraman Bradley Ambrose.
Villain or hero
The Nats have announced their asset sales legislation. Mum and dad aren’t at the front of the queue. No provisions to ensure 85-90% stays in Kiwi hands. Nothing to stop the companies being sliced up and sold after partial privatisation. No real way to stop one company owning more than 10%. There’s 1 vote that can stop this. It’s all down to Dunne now. Will he be the hero or the villain?
The biggest party are non-voters.
The option that most eligible voters in NZ supported in 2011 was “don’t vote”. Nearly 7% didn’t enroll, and if enrolled then more than 25% didn’t vote. Of the eligible voters from the 2006 census, over 30% didn’t vote at all. And since 2006 the voting population has almost certainly increased. It means that National’s large vote is probably less than the biggest “party”. Not a particularly good mandate unless you’re as deluded as John Key.
Nats’ Crafar Farm kickback
On November 30th, after the election, National received a $55,000 donation from Oravida, a company formerly owned by Terry Lee, director of Pengxin’s Crafar Farms vehicle, Milk New Zealand. In light of National’s illegal decision to let Pengxin buy the farms despite a lack of real benefits to New Zealand, maybe we ought to examine that donation a little more closely.
Key involved in Radio Live show
Watch Grant Robertson’s question to Key today Robertson to Key on Radio Live Key didn’t know his office was deeply involved in the show that breached the Broadcasting Act? Even though he personally chose the guests? It was a matter solely between the Electoral Commission and the broadcaster? Judge for yourself.
Armed police storm Key mansion
Armed Police assisted by the Eagle helicopter, the counter-terrorism unit, customs officials, and the police launch towed on its trailer have raided Prime Minister John Key’s Parnell mansion, executing warrants relating to the illegal ‘DJ Key’ election ad. Simultaneously, a joint Police-SAS taskforce has stormed RadioLive, deploying teargas and tasering all present.
PM’s office cuts Radio Dead
An internal memo in the PM’s office after they received the Electoral Commission’s advice on the Radio Live’s PM Hour broadcast says: “So the Electoral Commission has replied, and basically said they can’t make a judgment on a radio show without seeing a transcript. But they have been pretty clear about putting the responsibility on the broadcaster, which is useful.” Key’s office knew they were skating close to the wind but were happy to cut Radio Live loose. Lesson here for media.
DJ Key broke the law
The Electoral Commission’s decision on the ‘DJ Key’ hour on RadioLive has been leaked. It shows that Key’s hour-long DJ spot was an election ad. It’s the only sensible decision. Key was clearly on the show to promote his brand to win votes. He made several political comments. RadioLive now faces a $100,000 fine for perverting our election. And Key’s reputation takes another hit.
Key and Banks on ACT: snap elections, coups & Isaac
The tea tapes contain a pivotal exchange where John Banks and John Key talk about “restructuring” ACT – including Banks confirming his orders from Key to make Catherine Isaac the new leader. We also learn that National advisors called Key in a panic during the Brash coup calling on him to stage a snap election. It’s an insight into the cynicism of National and Key, and also Key’s poor political judgement.
Teapot tattle
The Teapot Tapes have leaked on to the internet.
You can torrent it and listen past all of the noise.
Easy come, easy go
The judicial recount has given Waitakere back to Bennett. By 9 votes. Could swing back on a high court petition. Who knows who really has more support out west. Sepuloni and Bennett are essentially as popular as each other. Just shows the stupidity of winner take all electoral systems.
Auckland’s election result was not so bad
micky savage writes about Labour’s results in Auckland. There were some stunning results, particularly in South Auckland where Labour’s share of the vote increased by 10.2% in Mangere, 7.3% in Manukau East and 5.2% in Manurewa. And in Phil Goff’s Mount Roskill it increased by 1%. These were very good results in an election where the tide was going out.
Right-whiner: Paula Bennett
Paula Bennett did pretty well in 2008, she won a seat that gave more party votes to Lab+Greens than Nat+ACT. But she was a bad MP. The electorate swung away from Nat+ACT and Bennett lost. But does she take it with grace? No she whines that Labour used “nasty and vicious” tactics like “mobilising the left” and getting out the vote on election day.
Carmel wins, Nats down 1, MMP to stay
Official Election results are out. Carmel Sepuloni takes Waitakere back for Labour by 11 votes, and National loses one seat to the Greens. MMP wins by a mile. Well done Carmel – I’m really glad she stays in Parliament. I don’t think a recount will change anything – I scrutineered the official count last election and the people doing it were very very careful.
What gains for Nat support “parties”?
Coalition agreements are expected to be signed today, with Ministerial roles expected for both Dunne and Banks. But it is the details of the policy gains that will tell us the mettle of these two. Did they achieve anything significant with their negotiating power?
NRT on Democracy 101
No Right Turn takes Key to task on his perception of a “large majority”.
Old Masters on Election 2011
The Old Masters give us their verdict on the 2011 election.
Bugger the polls
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
Watching the specials
The specials are going to be crucial in a number of seats, and to determine whether National can form a majority without needing the Maori Party. National could easily lose 2 seats on specials, leaving 58. Banks and Dunne bring 1 each, which equals 60 out of 121, not enough to pass legislation without at least tacit support from elsewhere.
Skirmish, battle, war
I’m just back from cleaning up our election day HQ after last night’s party. With apologies to lefties who aren’t feeling too flash today, and with particular sympathies to Labour MPs who didn’t make it back, I had a good election night.
A few thoughts on election 2011
It’s been a funny kind of election and there’s a lot to ruminate on over the next few days.
Here’s a handful of random thoughts on the matter…
Election night roundup
We will try to keep updated with the results of the election as they come through. And we hope that you will do […]
Time – last chance for comments
We’re not posting posts and not allowing comments from 2359 tonight to 1900 tomorrow after the polls close.
Thanks everyone….
A vote for Key is a vote for asset sales
76% of Kiwis are against National’s plan to sell our assets. We know it just doesn’t make sense. We know privatisation leads to higher prices, under-investment, asset-stripping, and profits going overseas rather than into public services. Make no mistake: the only way to stop asset sales is to vote Green, Mana, Labour, or New Zealand First.
Who we’re voting for
Over at norightturn idiot savant has declared his voting intentions. And let’s face it, in a representative democracy how you vote is where the rubber hits the road.
With that in mind Standard authors who feel comfortable with the concept are declaring the who and why of their democratic activities this Saturday. Commenters are free to join in.