Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.
We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll continues to show Labour are the favourites to lead the next Government.
The October TV One/Colmar Brunton poll is out. Like yesterday’s devastating TV3 poll result showing National not waving, but drowning, today’s poll confirms that NZ is still heading toward an historic Labour/Green Government, despite the Tories flirting with numbers in the high fifties.
UPDATE: Some weirdness with the numbers: they add up to 101% and 47% does not actually give National 60 seats, so the ‘Poll Says National Can Govern’ headlines are a wee bit optimistic. TRP.
The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion. What will they show?
The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.
Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
National slump in the latest poll; Judith Collins is up in the preferred PM race.
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.
Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.
Labour and Greens could govern alone.
The 3 News poll was a rogue.
Tonight’s TVNZ Poll shows Labour opening a 4 point lead over National.
National drop below 40% (well deserved).
Labour has polled ahead of National for the first time in 12 years. It is only one poll and others may differ, but it has shattered a huge psychological barrier. We’re in a new political world. Time to go hard.
What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.
With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.
1 News: “The gap between National and the centre left block of Labour and the Greens has tightened in the wake of John Key’s departure as leader, according to the first major poll since his shock resignation.”
A modest bump for the Labour Green block in the latest Colmar Brunton. And what appears to be a shift from NZF to Labour after the MOU announcement. That might wipe the smile off Winston’s dial.
With overall confidence dropping and Labour being all over the headlines for the past week, Labour’s support…
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out. National drop one to 47%, Labour gain that point to lift to 32% , the Greens rise to 13% and NZ First are steady on 7 %. Consumer confidence plummets 9% points to just 36%.
I’ll cautiously call the previous Roy Morgan, which caused so much angst, an outlier.
No significant changes in yesterdays TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll, with National unchanged on 49%, Labour unchanged on 31%, and all changes within the margin of error.
National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.
Two new polls are out and the Government has enjoyed a post budget bounce. But when the post budget glow wears off and the inevitable seepage of support starts what will National do then?
Two new polls are out suggesting National’s support is in the range of 46%. Given that its support is historically over reported this is potentially cause for concern …
The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?
Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?
The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!
