Tracy Watkins admits today’s Fairfax poll is pretty out of whack but there’s no denying the trend has turned against Labour in the past few months. People back the policy. That’s not the problem. Labour will still be hoping to close up 5% or so in the campaign. On the positive side: what a result for the Greens!
Rijab looks at how social media can be a useful tool for political parties but how it also needs to be used carefully, lest it come back to hurt you. Red Alert and Frogblog are very free, with MPs writing what they want and relatively loose moderation, whereas NationalMPs is insipid and tightly controlled – who has taken the smarter course?
A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National. When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?
According to one poll 56 percent of Labour voters say Labour won’t win. Good on them I say.
Today Part 2 of The Herald’s profile of Phil Goff is out, and once again it’s a very interesting read. It debunks some of the spin surrounding Goff’s ideology and the Lange / Douglas government.
An interesting opinion piece by Tim Watkins can be found on TVNZ; he offers a stark reminder to the public that National are toying with our democratic ideals, and suggests that voters would be wise to remember the consequences of a returned National Government. He discusses the impact of the World Cup on our democratic process
A few weeks back, I wrote that Labour’s policies are popular but it hasn’t secured the trust it needs to sway swing voters, partly people don’t feel they really know Phil Goff. Today’s Herald piece, reminiscent of one on Key in 2008 (except we get a lot more of the substance of Goff, not just carefully targeted anecdotes), should go a long way to fixing that.
I’ve just been playing Ben Clark’s asset sale game on his campaign website. (Ben is a fellow author here and Labour’s candidate for North Shore). In the game, you have to try to suck up the shares that John Key throws out before the big foreign buyers suck them up – it’s great fun and a little frustrating when they get the shares before you!
Like the American debt limit deal, I always thought that Mana and Maori would find some kind of bloody compromise at the eleventh hour. But they’ve passed the point of no return now.
National pollster David Farrar wants scientists to debate a fake Lord climate change denier saying “Why should anyone listen to people unwilling to debate?”. Well, David, next time you’re giving your polling report to the Kitchen Cabinet, tell them that. Because National is refusing to participate in coming debate on their asset sales policy.
It’s gotcha season in Parliament. First Labour was pulled up for a couple of election ads not having authorisation statements or not having big enough ones. Then Labour responded with unauthorised ads from National. Now, The Jackel has been told an unauthorised letter sent by Key to every pensioner is an electoral ad.
It looks like the race for Epsom is about to get a whole lot more exciting. Former ACT funder Colin Craig seems set to throw his hat into the ring against ACT’s John Banks, National’s Paul Goldsmith, and Labour’s David Parker. It only needs Winnie to join in to make a real party of it. Can Parker slip through the middle and win?
What does Colin Craig’s new Conservative Party expect to accomplish, other than to siphon off and waste a tiny percentage of right wing vote?
Key has refused to include the leaders of minor parties in TV3 debates, and Goff has agreed to debate one on one. Another step towards “presidential” style politics that does not serve our country well.
The PSA is launching its election campaign this evening. Our big challenge is to break through the government’s narrative (now reaching mythic proportions) […]
There’s been a lot of coverage of Winston Peters lately. Most of his announcements have been perfectly predictable, but for me there have been two real surprises.
The polls show that New Zealanders, quite rightly, prefer the policies of the Left, such as capital gains tax, over National/ACT’s ‘plan’ to hock off our assets. But the majority still seem to favour returning a Key-led (and Key’s the, um, key) government, even if they won’t like what it does. What the Left needs is Goff to build personal trust with the people.
On paper Labour is doing everything right, but they are not yet getting traction in the polls. Labour needs to get voters’ attention again, and then their trust. So how to “reconnect with the public”? What should Labour be doing differently?
Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour. But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…
What to make of Epsom? I haven’t so far had a strong opinion on the topic, but I’m starting to come down on the side of “if you can’t beat them, join them”.
Associate Finance Minister Steven Joyce has dealt his government’s economic credibility a serious blow by attacking Labour’s costings of its fiscal plan and getting his own numbers wrong. David Cunliffe looks to be enjoying himself as he rips Joyce apart on Red Alert, in the Herald, and in the Dom. So much for Joyce’s dreams of succeeding English as Finance Minister.
The Nats can’t tell us how much their asset sales policy will cost in lost dividends and sales costs, yet they’ve magicked up some numbers with all kinds of dodgy assumptions that supposedly show Labour’s tax package doesn’t add up. Well, I suppose they would know something about borrowing for tax cuts but their attacks on Labour aren’t credible.
After two weeks of contradictory, panicked lines from National, the Right’s official critique of Labour’s CGT is “it’s a hodge-podge”. The Right, including Bill English and Don Brash, aren’t saying CGT is bad, they’re saying Labour’s CGT isn’t comprehensive enough. Why, then, don’t they campaign on a more comprehensive one? Maybe they were going to.
In a comment yesterday on Eddie’s post ‘CGT or asset sales? Which do you prefer?‘, Matthew Hooton wrote “Where do I tick “I want both”?” Except for Nat sycophants, most righties acknowledge the need for a CGT. What should they do? Well, a little game theory shows that such a rightie should vote for a Labour-led government, this one time.
The media have provided us with five people examples of people who will be affected in different ways by Labour’s tax package. Ordinary families win big and they know it. The vested interests moan and reveal the pure greed that underlies their worldview. Frankly, I think Labour will win support due to both who supports and who opposes its tax policy.
Voters will see Labour oppositions on both sides of the world in a completely new light after this week. Phil Goff and Ed Miliband both took the bold step of taking on hitherto untouchable third-rail issues; capital gains tax in New Zealand and Rupert Murdoch’s pernicious monopoly media influence in England. Both leaders have turned the political landscape upside down and given voters a clear choice between the interests of the many and of the few. Go here for all the details. New Zealand is not for sale – game on for November!
Generally, no-one likes taxes, but Labour’s polling shows Kiwis are surprisingly receptive to capital gains tax. Head to head with National asset sales plan, the choice was clear: 55% prefer CGT vs 32% privatisation. In a contest of economic plans, Labour wins hands down. Even John Whitehead agrees. All English can do is scaremonger about the 35% debt ceiling.
After coming to office, National cried ‘crisis at ACC’ as an excuse for raising levies, cutting cover, and privatisation. Suddenly, the ‘crisis’ has disappeared and good ol’ National is cutting your ACC levies, back to where they were before National raised them. Now, just forget who put them up in the first place, and tick the blue box in November.
There were two ways that the Mana vs Maori Party confrontation could have gone. Cooperation could have been could for both, competition will see both diminished. Guess which option the Maori party has chosen…
Labour have started setting out a bold, fair and plausible policy framework for the election. Rumours of their tax policy have generated more interest and excitement than anything the National government has done in the last three wasted years.
The buzz around the traps is that Labour will be announcing a capital gains tax next week. The journos are already calling it a bold move and John Key is ranting hysterically. That Labour’s winning the media battle is great but, more importantly, this is a much needed policy: it is fair, it is good for the economy, and it will pay for good policies.
The latest Herald poll shows Labour + Greens at 42.7%, with National + ACT at 53.1% – the gap is down to 10.4% from 16.9% in May. That confirms the trend we’re seeing in the Roy Morgans as well. Interesting to note that the gap is 17% this point before the last election. Continued progress and focus on the big issues will see victory for the Left.
According to Audrey Young: “National and Act, the parties that kicked up a stink in Opposition about Labour’s taxpayer-funded election advertising, are engaging in their own taxpayer-funded binge this month”…
Labour shouldn’t get distracted trying to stop a few votes going to Mana. (or racing benefit rorting bloggers, for that matter). If the worse thing post-election is needing Mana’s support to govern, Labour would be ecstatic. Concentrate on the real fight: getting back the 100K voters who voted Labour 3 times out of the last 4.
According to our Prime Minister democracy is simply an expensive waste of time. Not surprising as democracy isn’t exactly something this bully government gives a lot of thought to.
