MartyG raises some very important points in his latest post here. Transport is Auckland’s biggest issue right now. By dying in a ditch over roads with only 18 per cent support for not having rail to the Shore and 79 per cent for, NACT would hand Auckland to a re-energised opposition on a plate.
With news now that a starving boy was found eating cockroaches, and that impoverished elderly are eating catfood, the plight of the underclass is getting nothing but worse. Is this the “brighter future” that National promised?…
Judith Tizard won’t take Labour’s vacant seat in Parliament. It’s the right thing to do. It’s only a quirk that we should be looking back to a list written in 2008 to fill a seat for 6 months now. Tizard and the next four on the 2008 list aren’t on the 2011 list. Their lives have moved on. Better for the seat to go to someone with a Parliamentary future – Louisa Wall.
In Sunday’s Baden-Württemburg state election, the Green party was the highest polling party. Their leader will become the first Green ‘Minister President’ in Germany. Regular guest poster ChrisH takes inspiration from this victory for New Zealand, and sees a formula for a Left victory this year.
John Armstrong’s contacts in National are telling him that Working for Families and student loans are the targets for cuts in this year’s budget. He also reveals the real reason for National opposing the widely-supported earthquake levy: putting on a tax would be an admission that tax cuts for the rich were a mistake in the first place.
“The worldwide recession is not your fault… You are being softened up for cuts in social spending… It’s easy to see the people this government is looking after. If you are a bank boss on $5.6million, helping cause a recession, you get an extra five thousand a week. If you are on the minimum wage – you get an extra 25 cents an hour.”
So, how are you enjoying your brighter future? Not too flash, eh? GST up. Wages down. No jobs. More crime. Earthquakes. Oil and food shocks. No bloody cycleway. Discretionary income (after tax, housing, food, transport) is down about 15%. No wonder Kiwis don’t believe Key and National can deliver on their promises.
Labour leader Phil Goff has ruled out working with Hone Harawira even if Mr Harawira heads a party of several MPs. I think it’s a foolish decision and I think the reasons don’t stack up. Instead of ruling out Hariwria, Labour should rise to the challenge.
The man tipped to be National’s next leader, Simon Power, has announced he will not be standing at the next election. The reasons are obvious. As a decent man and an old fashioned caring Tory, Power has no heart for the direction National want to take New Zealand. His resignation is a sign that within the party, the dry right have finally taken total control the idealogical reigns and there is no longer a place for liberal wets like Power.
It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?
To avoid another three years of backhanders to the rich, falling wages, rising unemployment, and asset sales, we have nine months to chip away at National’s support. As in 2008, The Standard will be running a campaign offering flyers etc for your to print off and deliver around your neighbourhood. Privatisation is an obvious first target.
OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
John Key has been less cunning than some thought he would be. Going for a November election, he thinks, will let him leverage off the World Cup mini-boom, and enhance running Michael Jones and Inga Tuigamala as candidates. But it means 5 months for the Budget cuts to hurt and gives us 5 more months to work. So, what are we going to do?
So John Key has flip flopped and decided to rule out working with Winston Peters again. He’s trying to portray that as a principled decision, about running an “aspirational” government. So why did he need to spend so many months working out what his principles are? No, it’s a political decision. Key thinks he can squeeze a little more milage out of flogging the dead horse that is Winston Peters.
The PM has called a surprise press conference for 12:45 today, and is tipped to announce a November 26th election date. A further “major announcement” is also expected.
Update: Election date November 26 confirmed.
We face a stark choice this year: a Labour-led government, which will create fairer tax and invest in jobs and innovation, or National-led government, which will govern for the kleptocracy, giving them tax cuts, then selling our assets and slashing our public services to pay for them. So why is the Goffice doing such a bad job making the case?
While we’re all eagerly awaiting Tracy Waktins et al’s reviews of John Key’s controversial decision to wear a mauve tie in his state of the nation speech, I thought I would look at some of the reasons why asset sales are such a stupid idea.
It’s always so wonderful to load up Granny Herald and see some wealthy late middle-aged grump (I’m picking this one is John Roughan) taking a swipe at the poor in the editorial. Today, Granny says we can’t afford to give mums more paid leave or more Working for Families for young kids. Hmm. But we can still afford those tax cuts for the rich?
Will New Zealand First get back into Parliament after the election? If they do, it changes everything. A range of new governing coalitions become possible – both National and Labour-led. Can the Left trust Winston Peters to side with Labour over National? Could a Left+NZF government work? Jenny looks at the issues.
Wow. The first edition of Hone Harawira’s new opinion column in the Sunday Star Times is a jaw-dropping read. He frankly states the party has sold out it values for cabinet seats – put coalition before kaupapa. It’s a brazen attack on Tariana Turia, and confirmation he intends to stay with the Maori Party and, some day, lead it back to its roots.
The Herald today has an article that serves as a stalking-horse for privatisation of public assets. Privatisation is a core part of National’s agenda- it will have to push for it in some form at the election. Articles like this one are all about softening us up for that campaign.
Recently, I did a post on how Labour should be focused on creating an over-arching narrative that embodies its broad set of policies. […]
A strange little article in the Sunday-Star Times praises National’s ‘rejuvenation’ project. Well, excuse me but 3 MPs out of 53 announcing their retirement and 2 quitting under clouds of corruption during a term hardly equals rejuvenation. In fact, National faces the same problem that Labour did – too little turnover.
Our guest poster writes about a letter he had published in the Herald recently. A clever wee missive, it started ‘helpful’ in tone but had a sting in the tail on the inaction of Key’s do nothing government in the face of recession, unemployment, and peak oil. The Herald cut off the sting leaving a ‘pro-Key’ letter. What are they up to?
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.
The Sunday Star-Times has produced an interesting article on the role of emotion in people’s voter choices leading into this year’s General Election. […]
Farrar and Slater are trying to knee-cap a poll in the SST tomorrow. They know the numbers because Key’s office told them. Obviously jittered. Slater says it has NZF at 8.9%. Movement of ipredict stocks suggest its bad news for Nats and Labour. If Nats are in mid-40s then they’re in danger territory. Very hard for them to find a majority.
Following Key’s ‘I’ll have a hissy fit and quit if you don’t re-elect me’ interview yesterday, the Herald has an interview with Phil Goff. The contrast is stark between smile and wave’s self-centred answers and Goff’s focus on delivering real results for NZ.
I’ve been traveling around for Christmas/New Year’s. It hadn’t hit me until I drove about 1000kms around NZ just how much more expensive petrol has become. The extra cost is a shock when you fill up and it hurts the economy. I got wondering what the political impact is. The numbers suggest it matters a lot.
Having a read of Fairfax’s 2011 political predictions, and their self-grading of their 2010 predictions, two things jumped out. The first is that Fairfax’s political staff have now wedded their reputations as political analysts to a National victory. The second is that they ignore the impact of the economy, and petrol prices in particular, on politics.
Phil Twyford is selected as the new Labour candidate for Te Atatu from a strong field.
Phil Twyford is a formidable campaigner, as I know from past experience. I almost pity whatever sacrificial lamb that National put up in that electorate.
Goff has given several excellent policy speeches this year, and the last one was no exception. Squarely targeted at a middle New Zealand that saw little of National’s tax cuts and far more of their job losses and rising prices. Pointing out the obvious, that National has failed to deliver on the economy, and has no viable plan to do so. In short, a great platform for election year.
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
They’ve already been dubbed NZ’s David and Ed Milliband.
Brothers David and Ben Clark will both be standing for Labour in the 2011 general election. David is standing for the safe Dunedin North seat, while Ben will be taking on Wayne Mapp on the North Shore.
Both would do well as MPs.
Matt McCarten is doing the dance of the seven veils on the issue of a new Left Party. He and the other players have been denying they have anything planned but, at the same time, have spoken of the need for such a party, as Labour paddles around in circles, and said they might join were such a party to eventuate. I say go for it.
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
