It’s only one poll, but it’s broadly in line with other recent polls, except for Act vs NZF, which I’m a bit doubtful about. Key observations…
- The combined vote for the two main parties is at an all-time low and slipping. This is in line with trends in the UK, Australia and elsewhere. It’s tragic when the two main parties don’t recognise this and/or accept the reasons for it and try to behave as though it’s business as usual, which is what’s happening here, as elsewhere.
- National have flooded the zone with a tsunami of lies and fear, crowding out rational discussion, secure in the knowledge that most people don’t see the rebuttals. It’s worked for them before. In fact, I’d say that’s how they win elections.*
- Labour has not been particularly effective in countering the deluge of lies and misinformation, but that’s been the story of the past few decades. It’s true that it’s hard to do that when the press are mostly hostile or outright enemies. But …
- A charismatic leader who can speak directly to voters in plain language in an authoritative way can do that. Nice Labour, as is its wont, declined to install such a leader. For reference, look up or think back to Bill Rowling. (This is not to say that Chippie isn’t impressive in person, with a great grasp of the issues and well-reasoned arguments; and this might make the difference in debates. But National know this.)
- This situation (two less than popular main parties, no charismatic leaders, a disillusioned electorate) provides space for third parties. Here TOP are the main beneficiaries, and if this poll is accurate, the Greens are also benefitting now. Act and NZF have been feeding off National’s rotting carcass for some time. It’s no different from elsewhere (Reform UK, One Nation in Oz …) Chlöe Swarbrick is also doing well, as her polished, highly informed and logical arguments impress.
In conclusion, if this poll is indicative of trends the results really shouldn’t surprise anyone. For the record, I’ll be voting Labour.
* Social democratic parties have been winning elections in recent times only when the right becomes unelectable (Australia, the UK, various European countries). Maybe soon in NZ and the USA too. But it won’t be because of any great fondness for the centre left. It will be because in power the right has become a shitshow.
Guest Post
lprent: inserting the poll image here.
Going to be a very interesting election result, I haven't got my head around how it might affect the result but seems increasingly likely the Nat's generate an overhang if they get 28ish on the night but keep say 36 of their 44 electorate seats. Usually the electorate seats follow the surge of towards either Labour or National but it at the moment at least it seems that won't happen this time. If TPM also generate an overhang we could end up with 125 seat parliament?
Opp have slipped in the last few polls….on this trend 4.9% is on the cards, and irrelevance.
The Greens' polling is trending steadily upwards….16% is stellar. I think that this is a reaction to a government that is bent on trashing the environment and the planet.
Well, while I am absolutely FOR our Environment, I think there is more to this Green wave than just that. I think their plan on Wealth (and how to address same), Health, and just generally the whole NZ Fair Future …is striking a chord.
Particularly for our Young NZers…..
if top don’t get over 5% there is no possibility of a left wing govt in any scenario.
The polling numbers don't support that claim.
With TPM and an overhang, if the TOP vote is wasted (in effect, redistributed) then the 2 blocs come out roughly even. The details would be crucial (how big an overhang? how many TPM electorates?). It certainly would not be an ideal outcome, a wafer thin majority either way. And of course a serious exclusion of many thousands of voters, bad for democracy.
But to say it's Opportunity or bust is not true.
do you know how polling companies are deciding on how to report TPM given the seats and overhang?
I don't know overall but Jack Tame did a decent job with this poll, offering 2 different scenarios.
With these poll results, there would be an overhang in Parliament of four extra seats above the standard 120. That is calculated on the basis that Te Pāti Māori holds on to its four electorate seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi holds the seat of Te Tai Tokerau.
An alternative calculation of the Māori seats gives Te Pāti Māori just one seat, Te Tai Tokerau none and leaves all other parties unchanged with no overhang and a total of 120 MPs in Parliament. The left bloc remains able to form a coalition under this scenario.
If they say anything, they usually assume that TPM will retain at least one electorate seat and therefore get their list seats as usual. If the projected seats add up to more than 120, the polling company (or reporting of the poll) has assumed electorate seats beyond the list vote (which is the case for this poll).
Not sure how they decide to do any of that, since they tend not to give rationale for why they project TPM to retain electorate seats, but from a forecasting standpoint, would be easiest just to do seat projections based on each possible scenario since there aren't that many and they aren't that hard to work out.
Opportunity announce 5 "bottom lines". Note that some policies which Lab/Green voters were questioning are NOT in there. (As previously suggested, some kind of working group/cross-party review should be enough on the overall tax issues.)
Health, supermarkets and political lobbying among Opportunity Party's bottom lines | RNZ
Lab/Greens can find plenty of common ground there.
But the biggest boost for the opposition is this one –
Recommitting to Paris Agreement emissions reduction obligations and protecting the Climate Change Commission's independence. "We will not support a government that walks away from our international obligations or undermines the independent Climate Change Commission," Wong said.
None of the coalition threesome will like that, but ACT will be furious.
No word on land tax or ubi. In the bottom lines.
Sensible as anyone know at 6-8% it'll be just getting the discussion started on them .
Agree. When Luxon ruled out working with the Opp Party he said:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/814942/christopher-luxon-says-ruling-out-working-with-opportunity-party-not-a-surprise
He also said:
However, there's enough wriggle room re the land tax and taxes generally for Nats to back-track on not doing a deal with Opp. post election. How that would sit with NZF & ACT is another issue. Plus the bottom line on climate could be a Nats deal-breaker.
I'm not sure how wedded the Nats are to ignoring climate change.
Tactically if Top got 9% the Nats may be able to dump one of their other support parties and change which peg they have on their collective noses.
The Farmer Force is strong with this Coalition.
I'm Fed up with farmers.
Thanks to their strong
lobbyingpleading, they receive special treatment from Governments, especially when Mummy & Daddy farmer (aka National Party) are in charge.Feds don't plead, they push, shove, whine and grizzle – their words are blunt and their minds are blank.
Every issue is a fence-post – if you can't dig it out with a spade, smash it out with a tractor! That post must come out!!
If it pleads, it leads.
The lobbyist motto.
They are not a party of high taxes unless those "high taxes" are coupled with a UBI. National, though they must be aware of the UBI, haven't alluded to it. So basically they are being dishonest.
"National … are being dishonest."
Would TOP then, mikesh, rule out going into coalition with "dishonest" National?
If reaching out to Opp proves to be the only way to retain the Treasury benches, then the Nats will pivot on a dime and do exactly that.
That sounds workable if TOP get above the line. If they don't, and their <5% vote gets wasted, then we're still looking at a very very tight election.
That vote has to go somewhere.
Luxon though, is a dork.
Let us not forget.
The five bottom line statement added a sixth bottom line in expressi g support for te Tiriti.
The last paragraph in the statement is
But they are not the full scope of our principles or ambition on other critical issues, particularly around honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi in any government we support. Upholding Te Tiriti partnership cannot be achieved in a single policy, but it is an approach we will bring to the negotiation table.
This result, like every other one this year is too close to call – with the left/right split within the margin of error.
It puts TOP in the kingmaker role – but very insecurely, as they are flirting with the 5% threshold.