The Latest One News Verian Poll

It’s only one poll, but it’s broadly in line with other recent polls, except for Act vs NZF, which I’m a bit doubtful about. Key observations…

1. The combined vote for the two main parties is at an all-time low and slipping. This is in line with trends in the UK, Australia and elsewhere. It’s tragic when the two main parties don’t recognise this and/or accept the reasons for it and try to behave as though it’s business as usual, which is what’s happening here, as elsewhere.
2. National have flooded the zone with a tsunami of lies and fear, crowding out rational discussion, secure in the knowledge that most people don’t see the rebuttals. It’s worked for them before. In fact, I’d say that’s how they win elections.*
3. Labour has not been particularly effective in countering the deluge of lies and misinformation, but that’s been the story of the past few decades. It’s true that it’s hard to do that when the press are mostly hostile or outright enemies. But …
4. A charismatic leader who can speak directly to voters in plain language in an authoritative way can do that. Nice Labour, as is its wont, declined to install such a leader. For reference, look up or think back to Bill Rowling. (This is not to say that Chippie isn’t impressive in person, with a great grasp of the issues and well-reasoned arguments; and this might make the difference in debates. But National know this.)
5. This situation (two less than popular main parties, no charismatic leaders, a disillusioned electorate) provides space for third parties. Here TOP are the main beneficiaries, and if this poll is accurate, the Greens are also benefitting now. Act and NZF have been feeding off National’s rotting carcass for some time. It’s no different from elsewhere (Reform UK, One Nation in Oz …) Chlöe Swarbrick is also doing well, as her polished, highly informed and logical arguments impress.

In conclusion, if this poll is indicative of trends the results really shouldn’t surprise anyone. For the record, I’ll be voting Labour.

* Social democratic parties have been winning elections in recent times only when the right becomes unelectable (Australia, the UK, various European countries). Maybe soon in NZ and the USA too. But it won’t be because of any great fondness for the centre left. It will be because in power the right has become a shitshow.

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