The rumour mill has been buzzing since a couple of commenters here let slip about Matt McCarten’s run in the Mana by-election. Word around the traps is the campaign will be used to launch a new Left Party with McCarten, Hone Harawira, Sue Bradford and others. It’s an exciting possibility.
It seems that in American elections there is an almost perfect correspondence between some candidates’ opinion polling and their current search volume on Google. Can we do away with political opinion polls? Sounds interesting doesn’t it. A quick check shows that the relative frequency of searches for “National party” and “Labour party” predicted the result of the 2008 election. What other tricks can we try?
In a press release last week Tariana Turia claimed that Labour’s new policy directions are all Maori Party policies. That puts the Maori Party in an interesting position after the next election. Will the major party that they support be dictated by their policies, Labour’s policies, as Turia claims? Or will their support be dictated by other, non-policy factors?
An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.
“The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone…”
Labour has, to date, failed to give the people who voted for it 3 of the last 4 elections a reason to come back. But that doesn’t mean all is lost. The Left is not just Labour. A 5% shift in the polls, the same scale as the shift that has already happened this past year, would be all it takes to get those numbers even and make the Maori Party – or maybe Winston – kingmaker.
Chris Carter is wrong. Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff. The objective conditions make it possible, and there is […]
National’s promises aren’t worth the paper that they’re printed on. They’ve broken plenty and downgraded most of the rest to “aspirational goals”. Now John Key’s current anti-worker employment policies add a whole new chapter to the list of broken election promises.
Pundit writer and legal academic Andrew Geddis has been doing some important work on electoral law, including contributions to the select committee that is looking at the 2011 referendum on MMP and the reform of campaign funding practices. You should head on over to Pundit and have a look.
First term governments don’t usually go early but this isn’t your average first term government.
Will the tories go early to lock in a second term?
And if they do will we get a blitzkrieg policy run if they win?
Labour’s lineup for the next election is emerging, the usual balance between continuity and new talent. There will be some interesting electorate selections coming up. Such personality politics is always very popular of course, but more important than the people is the policy…
National are still cruising in the polls, and no doubt feeling pretty confident about the next election. But ticking the blue box is easy – how firm is that support? We’re seeing big protests against this government. Is there any significant National policy that isn’t attracting popular protest, criticism from the experts, or both?
The post-Budget bump for National in the Roy Morgan polls was there but was small and it’s already evaporating. Fundamentally, National’s policies just aren’t popular,as the poll showing 80% opposition to asset sales proves. National is still pursuing privatisation by stealth (whanua ora, PEDA, water etc), giving the Left an opportunity make public assets the big issue of 2011.
Of the political parties in Parliament, only the Greens are likely to oppose the ‘new’ foreshore and seabed law. So, the Greens will be the only place for disaffected Maori Party voters to turn to. And why not? Their values are very similar. I expect that the Greens will make a strong play for the party votes in the Maori seats, winning over a lot of people who feel betrayed by the Maori Party.
National really, really wants to sell assets – it’ll be worth a fortune to their rich mates who can’t seem to generate any success on their own without a government hand out. But the public is firmly against asset sales. It would be an election losing campaign issue. So, National will play a game of ambiguous promises and confusing financial moves to sell without appearing to sell.
Two Electoral Reform bills are currently accepting submissions, and each contain one particularly large flaw. Firstly, as I commented on the Electoral (Finance […]
One thing that the election in Britain brought home to me, was how much I’m grateful for having Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) representation here. I didn’t start that way. Over time, I’ve grown to appreciate the gradual progress and stability offered by MMP. However the people at the Campaign for MMP could do with a little help in the Internet age. They’re operating like it was 1993.
Bill English is trying to assuage National Party member who are concerned that the Party is betraying its principles (ha!) and giving too much to the Maori Party saying “all those decisions are being made in the context of the longer-term view, reaching our objectives over the next four or five years” – winning a second term trumps principle. It’s about power for its own sake.
The choices between Labour and National are becoming clearer by the day. Next election the public is going to be offered two very different futures for New Zealand. Not between Labour and a dissembling “Labour Lite”, but between Labour and the true National agenda exposed.
In politics nothing lasts forever. That is it seems, except the Rt Hon Winston Peters. The latest Roy Morgan poll has NZ First at 3%, just below the 5% threshold (Nats 49%, Lab 33%). With Peters once again creeping back into the media spotlight, you’ve got to wonder: Will Rodney Hide’s nightmare come true with the return of Winston Peters to Parliament in 2011?
The Electoral (Administration) Amendment Bill would allow Simon Power to appoint a new Chief Electoral Officer and new Electoral Commissioners for the 2011 election. This is wrong. These officials must be completely independent, they must not be or be seen to be political appointees.
I don’t recall the date or anything, but I remember the exact moment I decided to get politically active. Rob Muldoon was called […]
It’s obvious to anyone with a brain that a government that spends half its time on holiday and the rest on PR stunts […]
I’ve been talking with some people about when John Key will call the next election. Two common points emerge: 1) it will be […]
