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Daily review 15/09/2026
13 comments on “Daily review 15/09/2026”
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Could someone tell me how the New Lynn Labour campaign is going?
Really freakin well. We have scores of volunteers, many people out doorknocking, a really good candidate, a large amount of cash raised and a weak opponent. I would predict that we should win the seat by 5,000 votes.
But it is all about the party vote …
Heartwarming thankyou. Sounds like days of old.
An Israeli newspaper really did suggest using Americans up to their necks in debt to invade Iran….fff
/
AUGUST 30, 2026 11:59
The Pentagon reportedly asked outside analysts this month for creative ideas on Iran. That request itself is worth paying attention to. Over 180 days into a war that produced the most intensive American air campaign since Iraq in 2003, the CIA has now confirmed what the strike data was already reflecting.
[…]
Recruitment numbers are running below what a ground invasion of Iran would require. Estimates for a successful ground campaign against Iran's 31 provincial commands and its Mosaic Defense Doctrine run between 750 thousand and 1.5 million American troops. The current active US Army stands at roughly 452 thousand. The math does not work, obviously.
Based on American history, however, there is a path forward. Not conscription or a draft in a world war-era sense, but enlistment through a “debt forgiveness program.”
The average American aged 18 to 34 carries more than $40 thousand in non-mortgage debt across student loans, credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans, with some estimates go as high as $100 thousand.
This is the cohort the Pentagon needs. A federally administered debt-forgiveness enlistment program that fully discharges student loan, credit card, and loan balances after 24 or 36 months of service, and extends the GI Bill, would produce voluntary enlistment at scale.
This is not theoretical.
https://web.archive.org/web/20260830080414/https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-906985
In 2023, 159,043 party votes (5.58% of all votes) were cast for parties that did not make it into Parliament.
In my opinion, these were not wasted votes. Rather, a wasted vote is one that isn’t cast at all.
https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/
Talbot Mills, now known as Anacta, poll tonight:
Lab 31 Gre 12 TPM 2 =45
Nat 30 NZF 10 ACT 8 =48
Opp 7
So similar to the Freshwater poll from earlier today. It all depends on Opp.
But assuming Opp would negotiate first with the largest party (and btw the largest support party-the Greens) the Left would have a working majority; 52-48. In fact Lab/Gre/Opp could form a government on their own.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-slumps-in-another-poll-but-still-ahead-of-national/HDUVF4SBJJHK3LYLGXLVLG3F7U/
I love Thomas Coughlan's desperate attempt to paint this as good news for National, saying it is a Labour "slump". The Nats had an 11.2% lead over Labour at the 2023 election….Labour has now turned this around to a lead of 1%.
Again a poll which tells you nothing. All of the differences are within the margin of error.
But the question needs to be asked: considering how bloody awful this CoC is, why isn't Labour's lead in double digits?
Agree totally Veitchy.
The reason is at least partly explained by the fact that racist/anti-immigrant parties such as Afd, Reform, One Nation and their NZ cousin NZF are all polling well.
Although one doesn't need to be racist to find resisting/limiting migration and economic nationalism attractive.
That might explain why National is doing badly. But do you really think that potential Labour voters are choosing NZF?
I think that most of the floating vote is moving towards TOP – especially younger voters, who don't really see Labour as offering them anything.
NZF are interesting – traditionally the party of the Boomers – but their anti-immigration policies are really resonating with younger people. Wiley Winston, seeing a niche and exploiting it.
Tony, at what point will you actually be satisfied?
Labour was behind. Then level. Now they're narrowly ahead, and apparently the problem is that they're not ahead by enough.
What result would make you say, “Yep, Labour is doing well”?
Yes, you and I might think the CoC is awful. But a fairly large chunk of the electorate clearly doesn't. Labour still has to persuade those people to vote for it.
When a coalition of Labour, Greens and TPM has a good majority in the house, with the Greens in such a strong position that LINO has to listen to them.
Therein lies the problem!