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Open Mike 15/09/2026
53 comments on “Open Mike 15/09/2026”
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https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361032911/its-warzone-man-has-aneursym-hospital-toilet
Staff begging for help well dragging people out of the toilets to try revive them .
The Freshwater poll today looks far more credible than the Taxpayers’ Union poll:
Lab 28 Gre 14 TPM 2 =44
Nat 27 NZF 13 ACT 9 =49
Opp 6
Who forms a government depends which way Opp swings, though they are perilously close to being a wasted vote. The Greens are polling well averaging 13.1 over the last 5 polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
National at 27% could mean no list MPs at all.
Their problem (and it's a big one) is that MPs in marginal electorates will fight desperately to hold their seats, against the overall swing. Nobody is going to sacrifice their own jobs for the good of the party (Luxon didn't, so why should his backbenchers be more selfless than their leader?).
They will almost certainly end up with MPs they don't really want, and lose list MPs they do want.
I'm not sure what's happening around the country Obs, but here in the Waitaki, National's Miles Anderson faces a battle because he is up against Michael Laws and Damian O'Connor.
With some tactical voting by the Greens (for Damian obviously) there is a reasonable chance that Damian will sneak through the middle as the Right's vote is split.
That would be karma as Damien lost his West Coast Tasman seat last election when Maureen Pugh snuck through the middle as a Bathurst mining backed candidate split the vote.
Maureen Pugh is one of those MPs that Luxon should be asked about, if the snoozing press gallery ever wake up.
Do National want her instead of Nicola Willis? Of course not. But will they say so? Also no.
The candidate question and Party? This election reminds me of Hooray for Captain Spalding from Animal Crackers – Groucho Marx and Brothers are the sort of men we need I think.
And so it goes…
For many elections, the 'special relationship ' between National and ACT for Epsom has suited both.
With ACT at 9% and no longer needing a hand up to get into parliament, and Goldschmidt looking marginal on the list, it might be National that needs the helping hand from ACT for this election.
If it goes that way, the rest of the country won't be too happy to witness the dirty politics, methinks.
Labour, Green, here’s your chance to take advantage of the split vote between those who stay with the old arrangement and those who don’t.
Love to see Epsom go Labour!!
Hipkins has a 45-35% lead as preferred PM.
This should influence TOP in negotiations.
On the numbers Bishop and Willis are gone.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361079350/historic-major-party-slump-deepens-labour-edges-national-new-poll
I thought Hipkins was pretty good on Morning Report today. I still think he will out-debate Luxon if given the chance.
That is a big if.
Chris Hipkins came across really well on TVNZ's Breakfast this morning – clear, assertive and matter-of-fact, as was Vanushi Walters last week opposite Nicola Willis on Breakfast and Morning Report. Willis became defensive and angry, while Walters remained calm and factual.
It's great that Hipkins and other Labour MPs are calling out National's repeated lies about Labour's policies.
I notice Chris Penk has written an opinion piece (on Stuff below) yesterday on the Opportunity Party. His intention is to sink Opportunity below the 5% threshhold as according to the Freshwater poll Labour/Greens/TPM need their 6% to form a government.
An interesting ploy with Penk is that he has framed his argument as Opportunity being a threat to the Centre-Left. The opinion piece is titled "The Opportunity Party could be disastrous for the centre-left".
It seems to me that he is going after the Opportunity Party's ability to be the ultimate king maker by pointing out to Centre-Right voters that gaining the threshold would threaten the National/ACT/NZF 49% and to the Centre -Left that Opportunity would "be disastrous" to them. Consequently, he's no doubt hoping that both will ditch Opportunity.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361032147/one-thing-five-million-kiwis-can-still-agree
His argument is that Opportunity will ruin Labour's chances to form a Coalition by insisting on taxes and thereby doubling down on National's attack on Labour as being a party of taxation in a coalition seeking new taxes.
Now I don't believe that Penk is in here hoping to help the Centre-Left. It is, I argue, an attack on Opportunity framed in such a way to persuade both sides not to support their king-maker role.
The only thing Stuff should be asking from Chris Penk is the truth about the failed caucus coup and Luxon lying about it.
It is astonishing that they think he should be given a platform for propaganda instead.
Don’t click on it, don’t read it, don’t share it, don’t waste your time on it, because there are better ways to spend your time and you’ll never get it back, IMO.
Penk is fearful TOP is a gateway to a better funded Labour led government.
The Tory 2024 strategy involved cutting NI contributions by employees to place budget pressure on the incoming Labour government.
The irony is his own party is facing rising debt costs because of their economic mismanagement.
A Maori Party overhang could be the decider if Opportunity decides to back Labour.
Opp will only swing one way, and that is to the left. All their policies are left leaning, they have ex-Labour people in the background such as Ian Lees-G, and National have already ruled out working with them as their policies are too far apart.
Swinging left or right – are you talking about politics with dancing in mind? It takes two to tango. The way that our politics are going we common folk who don't talk blithely in $millions, won't be go-ing anywhere. Don't leap to accept what Opp is proposing, their ideas are not viable, when time and study and experience are applied.
Don't leap to accept what Opp is proposing, their ideas are not viable, when time and study and experience are applied.
Can you produce any evidence that their ideas are "not viable". I doubt whether any concrete evidence exists, one sway or the other, but reason suggests that their ideas would be viable. Perhaps you should look at Guy Standing's literature on the subject of UBIs.
I agree that they will lean Labour if the numbers are even. But if the coalition is closer to a majority and/or National are the largest party (2 different things of course) then Luxon ruling them out means absolutely nothing.
Nobody seriously believes that National and the coalition parties would meekly move to the opposition benches instead of picking up the phone and having the conversation.
The script for Luxon writes itself: "I had to save the country from the Greens and TPM, so as my patriotic duty I reluctantly broke my promise …".
They've probably drafted the speech already.
Luxon will never admit breaking a promise; he’d say that his words were taken out of context and/or misunderstood.
Whatever any of the party leaders might be saying right now, once the election results are confirmed, each and every one of them is capable of spinning on a dime and going with whoever seems likeliest to provide them with a pathway into power.
Just 53 days to go.
And just 49 days until the US Senate, Congress and Governor races.
Yet another poll with the results within the margin of error.
There really is no point in reading the tea leaves from any them.
The only meaningful trend is the increase in support for the minor parties at the expense of both Labour and National – which has no impact on the left/right bloc. And whether TOP will get over 5% or be a wasted vote.
Lords of the Flies…..FFS how far have we come? Where are we going? The bullies, as ever….standing over the weak, IMO seems now increasingly.IMO particularly prevalent in the Justice (esp corrections !),MSD,and Health Systems (and FYI before the usual start up…my Link example is nothing anti Maori…I am and always have been anti bully which our present Society/Govt is enabling, if not encouraging to ever extreme levels)
I feel for this person. I remember from school the same kind of fckwits in the corridor turning the lights off. Teachers would not walk down it. Apart from one. I (obviously) still remember and respect him.
This kind of thing still goes on in corrections….where the guards…stand by. Law of..the jungle. No wonder people are scarred and…carry it downward. Many examples can be found by a simple search.
Forget the woke slurs..IMO We need an Empathetic Govt…leading to the same in Society
The CRL makes ego trips a lot easier and faster for many who like to jump on bandwagons.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-09-2026/exclusive-wayne-brown-has-nicked-off-with-the-ribbon-from-the-crl-opening
Real drivers of progress often remain unseen.
A fast-learner is somebody who goes where the wind blows when there’s something on the line.
The National Party is full of fickle fast-learners with firm opinions that are harder than concrete but more malleable than Luxon’s leadership skills.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/14/national-candidate-backtracks-on-climate-change-remarks/
"Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has refrained from directly criticising Lloyd Budd over the remarks, but said his candidate was right to confirm his position."
But he had already made his position clear earlier, arrived at after 43 years of living on planet Earth.
"Asked by Newsroom whether he believed in global warming, Budd responded: “I don’t think so, no.”
Hipkins comments in the article are excellent
There are so many things I could say about Luxon’s candidate, but I won’t. National needs better candidates in addition to needing better leadership.
Coalition Mark II would be so much worse than imagined, think Trump’s second term compared to his first.
We all know that a phone call from National Party leadership is all that it takes for a neophyte National candidate to reinterpret the evidence and come to a different conclusion.
Lloyd Budd is the anti-Galileo – someone forced by a higher authority to recant on fallacies, rather than on truth. Though it took the Catholic Church several hundred years to pardon Galileo's heresy, the National Party managed that overnight.
I wonder if National Party candidate selection processes ask potential candidates about climate change. Surely the Party knows that their Party does attract weird CC deniers and should really be trying to filter them out?
Luxon should be stamping on the CC deniers. Of course he doesn't which is excellent as it makes National look like nutters.
I believe being a real-estate agent automatically qualifies for a position on the National Party list.
On Friday our cost of debt went above 5%.
The TPU is not happy – noting deficits and debt is on a worse trend than 3 years ago.
No PM presiding over low growth and negative real wages can escape consequences.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361080409/christopher-luxon-claims-nz-leading-fiscal-consolidation-says-debt-must-be-paid-back
The mask has more than slipped with this…….next it will be unfreeze child chimney sweeps………
ACT pledges to freeze adult minimum wage, lower youth training rate | Stuff
This is significant, while only 5% get the MW, so many more in are its orbit – thus if put into effect would impact c10% of workers.
The combination with National's compulsory KiwiSaver contributions is an absurdity.
ACT truly are a heinous party.
Wage growth is already significantly behind inflation, particularly in food, fuel and power bills. Noone has any spare cash to spend in the economy.
This is basic economics- if the customers have empty pockets, how on earth can a business survive? Seymour is a nutjob.
Absolutely. A dangerous nutcase.
He would like nothing better than violence breaking out along racial lines. He is a genuine fascist such that reason and logic can not be applied to him.
https://substack.com/@drharpreetsingh/note/c-329436460
You've done something wrong, but I won't say what, but it's bad, you can trust me on this …
This is disgraceful by Mitchell, and by extension his boss too. Smear tactics are bad from anyone, but from the Police Minister it's even worse.
'Ongoing matter' relating to Labour’s top cop candidate Rakesh Naidoo – Police Minister | RNZ
When Whale Oil and his cousin Judith Collins celebrated Mark Mitchell, as 'one of us' it was evident he would be awful.
A number of nations allow citizenship to grandchildren of former citizens.
Shane Jones would not allow this for indigenous Maori, even if they were born here.
The great poet, orator and speaker of government prose apologises for himself here.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/1384905/they-re-not-coming-home-shane-jones-defends-denying-citizenship-to-australia-based-maori
He is selling an imported border security narrative created offshore (UKIP/Reform GOP/AFD Swedish Democrats/Rassemblement National), because he is such a visionary.
No none should have dual citizenship , ever ,why should some be allowed to game the system.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/1340334/act-and-nz-first-pitch-tighter-immigration-controls-others-warn-against-anti-immigration-policies
Tbh, I don't understand the recent rise in antipathy towards dual citizenship, nor the enthusiasm for abolishing the voting rights of permanent resident Kiwis.
Dual citizenship is not uncommon. Regressive changes would be curtains for NZ, imo.
Multiple nationality allowed without restriction
Multiple nationality restricted to specific cases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_citizenship
We would have to adopt the Philippines rule if we did so, to protect New Zealanders who became Australian citizens to access rights there.
The East and South Asian nation refusal to allow dual citizenship has some here remaining permanent residents, rather than applying for citizenship.
Thus it would appear to be the major target of NZFirst in proposing to denying voting rights to those that are permanent residents.
The antipithy is humans are meant to be equal under the law, not some getting a better deal because of a fluke been born to the right parents, I'd ad that to get nz citizenship should only come with the relinquishing of the other passport.
I prefer legislators who work towards equitable outcomes for humans – there are better places to start than changing Kiwi citizenship laws, imho. Personally, I’ve only ever had a New Zealand Aotearoa passport – it’s all this Kiwi ever needed.
https://yeehawtheboys.substack.com/p/evidence-based-passport-debate
https://www.annmilne.co.nz/blog/that-equity-image
2 passports isn't going to change inequality.
Agreed, and neither will one passport. What might the beneficial outcomes of a change from multiple to one passport be? I’m not sure what changing the order of words on the cover of NZ passports achieved.
Anyway, we can agree to disagree.
The specific issue raised here is that those born here, with grandparents born here, being denied New Zealand citizenship under NZF First Party policy.
Many nations Ireland, Italy, UK Spain, Germany etc allow pathways for grandchildren of former citizens to apply for citizenship (even if born overseas).
To end dual citizenship would harm New Zealanders in Australia (they have to become Oz citizens to access rights there).
Maybe the parents need to decide at birth which country their child is a citizen of
Not following you, here
I don't think that Jones is proposing to deny citizenship to Maori born in NZ.
Or are you seeing something I'm not?
Read the article.
We ended birthright citizenship in 2005.
Jones is arguing that where the grandparent went overseas and their child was born overseas. then that child cannot confer citizenship on their own child, even if that child was born here.
That seems like a really niche situation. The family has been resident in another country for at least one generation, but choose to come to NZ in order for the grandchild to be born here.
The more common scenario is that the grandparents went overseas. Their child was born overseas – but can choose to inherit the NZ parent's citizenship. However, it stops there. You don't get ongoing NZ citizenship because of a great, great grandparent who was a Kiwi (or Maori).
This doesn't seem like an unreasonable policy.
Apologies for this long copy paste (mod delete if it's beyond reasonable), this Q & A with Richard Denniss, of the the Australia Institute, is so on point, just substitute NZ for Australia, many of us have the exact same concerns. He explains it very clearly.
What's the point of Data Centres? | What's the Point?
https://youtu.be/IFjcUHBA7jA