Reflections of a retired blogger
Time for me to step down as a writer here. A closing ramble, proceed at your own risk…
Anthony R0bins
The mess that the new government inherits
This post is too long to read. Its purpose is to serve as reference material, a “one stop” snapshot of where we are as a country. The mess that the new government inherits. The consequences of the nine long wasted years of National. The magnitude of the challenge ahead of us.
Labour Day
Extra sweet this year.
Turns out voters were pretty chill about it
Small on how it went down and Nats’ bidding war myth
Vernon Small has the best account of the events of “D-Day”. Nat supporters are trying to pedal the myth that English lost a baubles bidding war because of his principles (hah!), the fact is it was all about policy match.
Wellington Political Theatre’s Waiting for Godot – a review
Beckett’s classic Waiting for Godot by the city’s oldest company, the Wellington Political Theatre, is a triumph.
The first 100 days of a Labour led government
Maybe Peters learned from history and is not doomed to repeat it. If we get a Labour led government, what should be its top priorities in the first 100 days?
Nats – lousy at government – “brilliant” at opposition
Peters has the opportunity to put an end to this useless government (and turn National into “the opposition from hell”). I think he’s going to ’96 us, but I’d be happy to be proved wrong
Another term of Nats bad news for democracy
It’s starting to feel a lot like 1996 all over again. Another term of the Nats would be bad news for the institutions of democracy. We’ve had recent warnings on the state of the justice system, press freedom, and the public service.
Last day of talks
It’s the last day of coalition talks (probably). Peters has certainly created big expectations of “change”, but what they will mean in practice is still anyone’s guess.
Peters policy priorities
Peters’ policy priorities are clearly anathema to National. Depending on the details Labour may be more accommodating, but it’s a risky path given signs that “the economy” is already flatlining.
The education mess
The complete mess that National has made of our health system got plenty of airtime during the election campaign. While it received less coverage, the education system is a mess too.
Prepare for four days of hot air
Expect to see agendas on display, and egos, and reckons, and the occasional gleaned factoid. But don’t expect predictions to be any better than chance.
Young on coalition options – an edge to Labour
Audrey Young on the coalition dance: “Labour would probably have an advantage because of the greater policy overlap”, “Keeping deputy leader Paula Bennett out of the first pro-forma courtesy meeting was an appalling decision by English that simply says he was desperate to please Peters at any cost”.
Specials tomorrow
The special vote count should be out at 2pm tomorrow. The mathematically plausible scenarios are either good, or very good, for the left.
Good call from Ardern
I have very mixed feelings about a Labour Green NZF government. I certainly don’t think that Labour should “pay any price”. So I’m pleased to see Jacinda Ardern acknowledging the Greens.
Uncertainty doesn’t bother “the market” at all
There is no “strong and stable” government to “lead” us. Maximum uncertainty! No end in sight! According to received wisdom (and all those people in a self-interested rush to ordain the born-to-rule-party) the market should be panicking! In fact…
Cling to power vs the right thing to do
The Nats are desperate to make big concessions for a coalition with the Greens. The establishment is lining up in The Herald to beg for this to happen. Promises to strengthen environmental and social policies in order to cling to power – but not for the last nine long years when it was simply the right thing to do…
Nats fought a FPP campaign and blew it – Labour went with MMP…
You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign (hello creepy joggers). There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.
Why are we angry about tax and apathetic about low pay?
National’s one and only strategy this election was lying about Labour, specifically Labour’s budget and their tax policy. The $11.7bn hole lie just made the Nats look stupid, but the evidence suggests that the tax lie did real damage. Why are we so angry about tax and so apathetic about the much more important issue of low pay?
One obstacle to NZF + Labour removed
A significant and positive development late yesterday. Labour held firm on the Māori seats, and Peters has decided that a referendum is probably not a bottom line after all. This early progress bodes well for future negotiations.
Peters campaigned against the Nats – his party wants him to do the right thing
Peters campaigned hard against the Nats, and for a change in government (check out the speech and video). To keep faith with democracy and with his party members he has to go with Labour Green (check out the feedback and polls). If Peters goes the other way NZF will implode.
National paying the price for cannibalising the political right
National have maintained their own vote but killed off all their political friends. Which is why their only route to power is now in the hands of an enemy, and why that enemy should be very wary of hitching his wagon to their fading star.
Establishment hysteria and MMP
The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”
The vote for change
The Nats lost this election. It was a vote for change. NZF party members are calling on Peters to do the right thing.
Thank you Jacinda Ardern!
The fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago. Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard! Now it’s up to MMP…
The final ads
The final election pitches – Ardern inspires – English in a hole.
If you haven’t voted already – vote wisely tomorrow!
Today is the last day to enroll – and you should
Today is the last day you can enroll to vote in the election. Historically far too many people in the 18-24 age group have not enrolled. The same again would suit the Nats very well indeed.
Update: Newsroom: “A record turnout of early voters suggests a youthquake in action – and the polls might be wrong.”
Update: If you are trying to enrol and the queues are long, here are the other ways you can do it, including online!
Update: you can enrol up until midnight Friday online, and then vote at a polling station on Saturday. Details here.
An MMP government
On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.
Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?
Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?
Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly
Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?
Why I voted two ticks Labour
The Nats do not deserve to lead NZ so I voted for change. The electorate vote was simple. I struggled with the party vote.
Farm protest mad cows and climate change
The farmers’ protest in Morrinsville today unfortunately shows that we have made no progress in the 15 years since Bill English attacked the wrong PM with his “mad cow” insult. Meanwhile the effects of climate change have got worse, our options for dealing with it have got fewer, and the Nats don’t want you to know about $19bn of NZ property at risk.
When scaremongering becomes self-parody
According to English, in a revealing Q+A interview, Labour wants to “slaughter the dairy herd” and “depopulate the cities”. Why is he such a scared little man? Why doesn’t National have the confidence to run a positive campaign on its policies?
Get out the young vote!
If you can do one thing help New Zealand make the right choice for the future it is this – get out the young vote!
Polls – focus on the horse race misses the huge mood for change
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.