National must be worried about its prospects in this year’s election. Because its budget did not have the normal hard right policies that we have come to expect of it and it is trying to lessen the attraction of some of Labour’s announced policies.
Earlier this week I predicted the Budget would be Labour-lite. I was right, but only in part. By far the biggest disappointment is in housing. The government signalled help for home buyers would be a highlight in the Budget. A few pathetic morsels isn’t a highlight. This will make next to no difference to the housing affordability crisis. First home buyers aren’t $3,500 short of a house. They are hundreds of thousands short, because there aren’t nearly enough homes.
The real story of the coming election is what was revealed in Bill English’s reported pre-budget speech to the National Party’s Southern Region conference at the weekend. He signalled an intention to reduce the proportion of government spending to 26% of GDP over the next 6 to 7 years. The current level at 30% already places NZ in the lowest quartile of OECD countries, having fallen from 35% of GDP in 2008. Most developed nations spend a significantly higher proportion of GDP on government goods and services.
No Right Turn shows that John Key has no real understanding of the economic and political history of this country. Probably because the last time another economic illiterate from National said that the prospect of reducing unemployment in NZ to below 6% was “a hoax”, John Key wasn’t here. He probably heard it from that illiterate, who once again is our minister of finance. Unemployment under Labour was as low as 3.3%
Genesis Energy’s shares have been sold at a price well below their value. And despite considerable demand from local mum and dad investors one in four of the shares has been sold to overseas institutions.
All inequality measures are not equal. The GINI Coefficient is widely used but it doesn’t show the impact of vast increases in inequality between the richest and poorest Kiwis; it doesn’t show increasing experiences of hardship: it can mask vast inequalities in wealth & asset ownership.
Local bodies points out a couple more of the National government’s sad-sacks. For some strange (but obvious) reason a warmish market for milk powder doesn’t do much for NZ apart from destroying our environment. English’s taxcuts for his wealthy mates have destroyed the fiscal base of the government and done nothing to cause any investment in the productive and employable parts of our economy. Tim Groser has also made an artform of making NZ worse off.
Tracy Whatshite, Cadet Reporter, attended the “Bellies” (held at Bellamy’s) and found out who the winners were in this year’s competition for the Best Political Song of 2014. She spoke with the judge Frankie Stevens.
“Competition was particularly intense this year and the top entries included some old favourites, but also some surprizing new comers,” he said.
Rob at Polity points out National’s intensely unstrategic view about investments and asset sales. In a down market where all the indications said “buy,” National sold our assets for a pittance, and refused to invest in the Super Fund. The Super Fund has been making returns of 21%, far exceeding the Crown’s cost of borrowing. And National will only start investing in the Super Fund when equities are expensive again. It is almost as if they wanted to waste taxpayers funds eh?
There is danger of reading too much into polls months out from an election. Commentators were claiming that National was too strong to lose the next election based on a rogue poll. Few looked at multiple polls, accounted for the margin of error nor the trends over past months. The last fortnight has seen a National with the latest Roy Morgan Poll plummeting from the Colmar Brunton result of 51% to 45.5%. And it is based on a lack of ministerial performance…
The Government is continuing with the Genesis share float. Shares with an anticipated yield of 15% are being sold to pay off debt on which interest at 5% is being charged. What sort of economic lunacy is this?
What do you call someone who knowingly relies on false information to defend his case?
Bill English.
The Government has effectively conceded that the Genesis share float will not meet expectations and is softening New Zealand up to the prospect that only 30% of the shares may be sold. It makes you wonder why they are still going a head with the sale.
Tracey recounts the rise and fall of the `financial genius` John Key’s pet financial hub for NZ to emulate the paragon economies that tried it. Like Ireland – the home of the jobless and deserted housing projects.
Fortunately he was somehow prevented from stuffing NZ in this way. However he did put in some legislation of dubious value to allow NZ to be used as a haven for hot money fleeing taxes…
Rob Salmond at Polity has been having a look at Bill English’s “neutral” tax change in 2010…
Bill English recently heralded his tax switch as making net tax more progressive. He lied. It actually made net tax at least $500 million more regressive.
A Herald poll this morning has Labour on 40% with many expressing concern with the asset sales programme. And John Key displays a disturbing lack of numeracy literacy.
In a surprising development, John Key has taken to bringing “a friend” with him to serious media interviews. Key was accompanied by Bill English. Key justified the new approach stating that their unique “chemistry was obvious to all in parliament” and he wanted the public to know, just how well they got on. When questioned whether this was relevant and important in the lives of ordinary Kiwis he said “…frankly its one of the key platforms we will be contesting the 2014 election on”.
The Government has announced that the sell down of Air New Zealand shares will occur over the next two days.
So far seven National MPs have announced they will not stand in next year’s general election and more announcements are rumoured to be in the pipeline. Is the writing on the wall for this Government and will it become the first two term National Government in history?
Why is Treasury providing the government with advice on spinning and disguising widespread changes to Education? In this way, NZ’s democracy is undermined, and changes are continually made that benefit the few and make life more difficult for the many. Government MO or renegade Treasury?
A charity is taking on the funding of the essential work on monitoring poverty, in the face of Paula Bennett, Bill English and John Key et al failing to do their job: a return to Dickensian & Edwardian times.
The Government has announced the results of the Meridian Share float and the results are all bad. The country will receive up to $1.1 billion less than the shares were worth in 2011 and overseas entities will own 13% of the shares. Remind me why we are selling the shares ?
At least one MP if not the whole of National’s caucus knew that the news concerning Len Brown and Bevan Chuang would break soon eight days before it did. Slater’s and Palino’s claims are becoming more and more difficult to believe. And in a comment yesterday Bad12 sums up why this is such bad news for National.
In a previous post at The Standard I did a wee bit of math and came to the conclusion that National has already […]
The Nats’ PR-managed conference stifled democratic debate & bright ideas, and diverted from significant issues. Armstrong attempts to talk it up, while exposing Key’s win-at-all-costs ruthlessness. Meanwhile: speakers announced for democratic meeting to Kill the GCSB Bill [Updated – Hagar also speaking]. [Update: Gordon Campbell – ‘Nanny National‘]
The Government is planning to spend up to $100 million from the sale of one SOE, Mighty River Power, to prop up another SOE, Solid Energy. And the Prime Minister thinks one day that it definitely isn’t and the next day it may but it probably won’t and it is all too complex. Confused?
The simmering leadership struggle in the National party doesn’t get a lot of attention in the mainstream media, but here’s an exception. Judith Collins will not be pleased.
The National Party are the good economic managers, right? So why are they spending money we don’t actually have yet?
Does food in schools show up a split in National between the hardline conservatives who would leave kids hungry in the name of parental responsibility, and pragmatists who will swallow a dead rat every now and again in an attempt to stay popular?
Yesterday’s budget is a sop to affordable housing & aims to privatise state housing. Penny Hulse says the government’s related “housing accord” Bill is at odds with the agreement her council has not yet ratified. It overrides local democracy & endangers the AKL “agreement”. [Update] Waitakere News analysis
Corin Dann interviewed Bill English very well on climate change and the drought yesterday on Q+A. It was clear that English has his head in the dust. Despite claiming that the government is leading on climate change, English would barely let the ‘cc’ words pass his lips and referred ‘dry cycles’, as if climate change is just temporary, so not really worth worrying about.
Some great work from Labour yesterday as they got the documents showing Bill English being advised about Solid Energy’s predicted lower profits from a lower coal price – and asking for a bigger dividend anyway.
John Armstrong thinks poor Bill English has got it tough with the current drought and its impact on the budget. You’re thinking too small John. Way too small.
Reprinted with permission from Frankly Speaking. Three ministers dropped in the Novopay mess by Steven Joyce. Three ministers parroting very similar lines…
Bill English’s priority in 2013 will be to “bed in” welfare reforms. Because that’s where the big fiscal savings lie. He’s hoping to […]
