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- Date published:
4:33 pm, March 19th, 2026 - 46 comments
Categories: energy, national, nicola willis, polycrisis -
Tags: oil crisis, resiliency
Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon did a press conference this afternoon on the deepening oil crisis, RNZ replay below. The quote in the post title is Willis’ first words.
My initial impressions:
The government has shifted position and is now directly talking about the need to plan and prepare for a potential crisis, including the worst case scenario.
The messaging here is good: this is serious, the war could go on for sometime, supply chains are already affected, we have enough fuel at the moment and we still need to plan around what might change soon (8 – 12wk window). That this is an unfolding situation, and they’re not being alarmist. At this stage there will be bi-weekly updates on fuel supplies and the situation.
I’m relieved, it looks to me like they understand the nature of the problem and that action is needed.
There’s an issue here for the left. We can and should critique what the government is doing. But we also need to not unnecessarily undermine confidence in the government when they are getting things right. This is an opportunity for the left to talk about what we can do as a country, not simply slag off everything National do. It’s a challenge, we still need a change of government in November. Key here is the left presenting better futures, even, or especially, during times of crisis. That requires a shift in strategy. I’m talking extra-parliamentary left as much as anything.
I don’t think the government are doing enough, we should be conserving fuel and moving to a rationing system. But I don’t have to take the economy into account when I say that, nor do I have a good understanding of the logistics and necessary timeframes of everything involved.
I have little confidence that National will shift from their fundamental positions of around managing the economy, nor that the targeted support will help those most in need, I hope they prove me wrong. Again, an opportunity here for the left to say ‘this is what should be happening’ and why.
Of interest is MSM framing. Compare RNZ and Stuff (NZH had nothing on the front page when I was writing this).
RNZ,
And Stuff,
What we really need right now are narratives that our short, medium and long term security lies in collectively building national resiliency. The cost of living crisis matters and we should talk about that as well, but we can no longer afford to put off the hard conversations around the polycrisis because we think our immediate problems are the most pressing.
One would want a plan whereby 30 days supply would last 60.
Where the last 10 days supply lasted 30 days.
Before then working from home would help.
So would car pooling.
Carpooling is not an option for the main users of diesel in NZ nor is working from home or taking PT. Jet fuel is similar in that sense.
because the main users are commercial?
Yes, essentially. Different types of fuel, different usages, different users. These factors require different approaches and strategies in a national plan. In any case, lowest-income earners will be financially constrained before there are physical constraints such as rationing. This could happen when prices at the pump keep going higher – the wheels come off the cheapest cars first.
Jet fuel is managed by the few companies involved cancelling flights (and having fewer ones that are full).
Diesel involves more players and would reach 30 days first. And is the most acute as per government planning.
The government could avoid messing with the many of the public by resort to more voluntary measures first – encouraging (incentivising) car pooling and work from home.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360972558/pre-conflict-report-warned-diesel-stocks-might-not-be-sufficient
Except that it was published a year earlier, in 2025.
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/30476-fuel-security-study-pdf
That’s some sloppy reporting there!
Bottom line is that the Coalition Government has been sitting on the report for over a year now and on their hands for even longer.
We would all like to know, what the government has learnt about this (if anything).
I’d say ‘nothing’. They’ve added another week of minimum storage for diesel (effective in 2028, I think) from 21 to 28 days. That was already on the cards before the study was commissioned and based on Shane’s gut feeling (‘so, let’s just slap another week on it’).
All their obsession seems to have been directed at the closure of Marsden Point Refinery and more/larger storage tanks for diesel and jet fuel. Everything else is too hard for them.
"… we should be conserving fuel and moving to a rationing system."
I agree, but MPs in a Nat-led government will be hearing plenty of advice from libertarians (not least from a certain coalition partner) that price increases effectively are a rationing and conservation mechanism, so just let the market take care of it. They may not care that it's a highly inequitable rationing system, but hopefully they'll be smart enough to figure out that it's also a voter-repelling rationing system.
I've haven't used my car for over a week – walking and using public transport more.
If more people shift to using public transport, will Auckland's buses and trains cope?
Also, I've stocked up on extra protein foods that have a reasonably long shelf life – eg lentils, cans of fish & beans.
Right now our sole car in Invercargill is getting panel beaten. The other one is still up in Auckland. I ride e-bike regularly in the nice flat (albeit chilly) for a bit of shopping and exercise when I get up from my coding throne. My partner still has a phobia of biking because of going to school in Invercargill winters on one, so she gets lifts to where she is working. But I’m kicking myself for leaving the other e-bike in Auckland – it’d be great to have a reason for her to ride…
We never use much petrol. Right now we aren’t directly paying for any at all. Just from what comes in the cost of services and goods.
We need a post on what other countries have already put in place – and they all have bigger fuel reserves than us.
Well overdue this Government had a proper external test. Ardern's government had more than one a year.
I guess we'll now get to see the UK Tory approach to crisis management up close, given how much this government loves to ape the 2010-2022 UK government.
I was listening to the "Rest is Politics" podcast and our media has given us zero flavour of the size of this war, relying instead on the censors of the Middle East and the self-censors of the US MSM for it's feeds. the UAE alone has had over 2000 drones and missles fired at them, an astonishing number.
Meanwhile, Trump's unstable mind and the incompetence of the craven henchmen he has surrounded himself with means he has no advisors able to give him good advice and he is incapable taking such advice anyway. He lives in an imaginary society where he baths in the company of those (like Putin) he has elevated to fantasy status to feed his need for narcisstic supply. That means Trumps impulse to escalate when in a corner is virtually unchecked.
This war has a long way to run, unless someone can persuade Trump to take the humiliation of backing down.
NZ had the most severe fuel rationing in WW2 of any Anglosphere nation, and it went on for a long time, for the same reasons why things are looking ropey now. So expect serious fuel shortages in months, if not weeks.
Some European countries are taking action against price gouging by fuel companies.
It includes caps on how much can be charged on the forecourt; inspectors going around petrol stations, and taxes on companies profiteering from wholesale prices of oil.
Also the EU had already brought in measures to respond to energy problems from the war in Ukraine.
That included building up reserves, focus on renewables, reducing use of electricity, "capping electricity producers' revenues", "securing a solidarity contribution from fossil fuel businesses".
There was a whiff of panic about Luxon and Willis in that presser – I hope our 'on the water' shipments haven't been cancelled by South Korea/Singapore invoking force majeure as has been warned.
….. or maybe they're panicking about having to implement an alert level system after all the fuss they all made laying into Labour over the recent Covid Inquiry report.
There was comment in BHN last night that they can't suggest working from home is a good idea because they made such a big deal about it being terrible that Labour did that. That's a problem of National, but also how our political discourse goes. We need politicians to be able to change their minds, especially over something this important.
Also Willis has suggested motorists drive more slowly if they are worried, after her government reversed speed limit reductions around the country in the name of productivity.
Aggressively accelerating, braking late & hard, driving on the motorway with a roof-rack because you were too lazy to take it down, are all sure ways of wasting extra fuel. Big hairy arms hanging out of car windows are a real drag.
big mouth Simeon Brown. problem for big mouths like Simeon is that words come back to haunt him
As I see it, the issue right now is to conserve our stocks of fuels – in case this war drags on longer than a couple of weeks – which seems likely.
Measures to conserve that fuel could be
None of these relatively easily implemented options are palatable to the CoC – because Labour done them, and were criticised for doing them. That would be like admitting Labour was right!
So, I expect we'll get plenty of talk about 'monitoring' the situation and the meetings of a committee – but nothing will happen until we're down to say about 10 days supply – then PANIC!
talking about needing to prepare v having a plan. 2 different things and the COC is full of talk about needing to prepare but extremely light on a plan. More than that, if they get held to account on the basis what they have said/promised in times past I have no problem with that, if you say it be prepared to walk it or keep your mouth shut. so if the coc cocs it up, no sympathy from me
if we want things to change for the better, we have to let the right change their position and direction. The issues isn't what they deserve, it's what we need and the best options for getting that.
Nothing stopping the Right from changing their mindsor direction on something, I doubt a few Lefties on blog with bother them. If & when they do something right most here acknowledge it. Being Centrist means doing nothing.
yes and let the right change their position from the opposition benches after being given a good position changing message by the electorate. 20 plus years of national party doing sfa about climate change so yes, lets hope they change their position and lets hope it's a strong kick up the arse out of office.
I hope we get a change of government too. But we might not, so I want them to change now.
We are so close now to the start of the 1973 scenario.
If anyone can remember, that's when the Arab oil embargo imposed on Israel’s allies sent the US economy into the deepest downturn since the Depression.
World oil prices tripled and New Zealand’s terms of trade fell 38% in 1974, to the lowest level for 40 years.
Inflation of nearly 18% in 1976 fuelled spiralling wage demands.
Share prices fell about 47% in real terms and the cumulative loss of GDP during the 1976–78 recession was about 18%.
That was when Muldoon got Bill Birch to do a proper national mobilisation of New Zealand using every lever Government then had.
Return of the oil shock: lessons from a crisis New Zealand has seen before | RNZ News
During the 1978 election campaign National campaigned that New Zealand would be made as self-sufficient as possible in transport fuels.
These days leaders are of course saying don't panic. I would prefer they say Do Plan, and We Are Planning As Well.
Anyone recall the last national mobilisation we had? 4 years ago?
I think we're up for it. Leastways I am.
nice one. Do a post!
Our New Zealand boss just put out the word to everyone: "All flights cancelled. Do Teams unless absolutely critical".
All MPs should now do the same. Fully in the Speakers' powers, and within the powers of all Party leaders.
Is that a WFH (Working From Home) directive or only a DNF (Do Not Fly) one?
Working From Home won't get any bridges or tunnels built or windfarms built, so no we won't be working from home.
that's impressive.
I was about to resurrect an old post on stopping flying. Lots we can do without waiting for this government to lead, and they absolutely should be, all of parliament
The linked article by the prof of Energy Economics is highly critical of Muldoon's interventions as it resulted in some long term, unexpected deficits.
The Prof's solution is let the market lead to people buying less fuel when prices rise. But, that ignores that it is the least well-off that suffer from such a laissez faire policy.
He does, however, favour government intervention of a less direct kind: ie by changing the underlying policy settings, including moving to more sustainable energy sources (I agree with the govt moving more urgently to renewable energy).
Surely, in a crisis, when some people, already on the breadline, will struggle to manage, surely some well-targeted direct intervention is needed.
Also, the underlying policy settings really needs to take electricity out of the hands of private business and re-nationalise it. Powercos have shown themselves to be unreliable in providing adequate electricity to all people regardless of income level.
Looks like my self-imposed exile didn't last very long!! I've decided that, regardless of what the trolls think, 30+ years working in a political environment still counts for something…
This is going to damage the government, come election time (who else is counting the days…). The coalition has been bad-mouthing Labour's handling of the covid crisis for all of this term, to the point where its review of how Labour handled it is due out a short time before the election. Why? Because it was safe ground. They could criticise anything about covid, knowing that they couldn't be found wanting themselves. What are the chances of two major crises happening in such a short space of time, right?
Now, people are going to have something to compare the two approaches. Labour's welfare strategy where the country's borrowing escalated, but not to levels beyond other countries, vs National's "inflation-first, people-second" strategy. How many people sitting at home in the dark, with prices of both essentials as well as luxuries having escalated beyond the average affordability, are going to side with National when they say that keeping inflation down is better than taking care of its people.
And, National has no choice but to go for that approach, because it doesn't want to be seen to be infighting with ACT and ACT knows where its support base aligns to.
I'm sure that National's critique of Labour's handling of the covid crisis will winkle out examples where a better approach could have been taken; it's always easy to do things differently with the benefit of hindsight. But now, every criticism they heap onto Hipkins can be deflected back to their scorched-earth approach that's no better and probably worse.
The past, present and future of farming, the farmers say, is diesel.
"We'd better change our superphosphate spreading, soil-turning, harvester-dragging ways immediately!" said no New Zealand farmer, ever.
Those aren't ploughed fields you see across rural New Zealand. They're furrowed brows.
Time to repeat the footage of the 2021 Groundswell tractor protest.
Groundswell’s defiant message to Government | Otago Daily Times Online News
Imagine if we'd had a government enabled to prepare us for an energy crisis, for the past 5 years.
I fear diesel fumes have a deleterious effect on imagination.
As does membership to the National Party.
"There’s an issue here for the left. We can and should critique what the government is doing. But we also need to not unnecessarily undermine confidence in the government when they are getting things right. This is an opportunity for the left to talk about what we can do as a country, not simply slag off everything National do."
Indeed. That should come later, after the crisis is over, and a new L-G-TPM govt can hold two or three commissions of inquiry.
In the meantime, we all recall how Simon Bridges and Judith Collins barked at ev ery passing car during covid and said some incredibly dumb things.
Collins' stirring, and political point-scoring resulted in Delta entering Auckland, and necessitating the three month lockdown.
https://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2021/10/06/the-virus-the-bubble-and-the-trap/
We can do better.
heh, hope you are joking about the Inquiries.
Would be good if we didn't bark at every passing car. I'm already seeing a fair bit of reactionary commentary, which inherently attacks National without thinking what might work instead. Removing the fuel tax being the most obvious example. What we should be doing is using less fuel, this should be the dominant narrative from the left and how to do that fairly and as transition to something resilient. Not simply reacting against Willis's every word.
Interesting live graphic. I get some of it but hoping someone can explain some of the percentages.
https://nzoilwatch.com/#/
Head of the Marsden storage facility: we're at the back of the queue.
Time for the short work week.
‘Demand destruction has begun’
https://archive.li/mtxfj (ft)
Being a SI farmer, I have had little use of public transport over the years, mainly because the nearest bus to us is all of 300 kms away but in the last 3 days visiting Auckland I did use the buses to get around and here’s where I have noticed a problem. If Auckland parks even 20% of its cars there is not the capacity to move any more people. We Traveled in off peak times but even then on the Ellerslie to Downtown route the buses were pretty much full to overflowing. I very much doubt that capacity can be increased by much at all. Also the myth of “ working from home” is that sitting on a computer does not make anything, it doesn’t put weetbix in a box or even stack a shelf, let alone staff an Emergency Department or an operating theatre. This is not 1972 and these are not easy problems to solve especially by the lack of ability in this current government. We may truly be in the shit. At least most of us thankfully own electric vehicles thanks to the last government’s policies…..oh, hang on….bugger.!
Yeah, people using their heads instead of their hands are just lazy day-dreamers who should get a real job in the real world.
I've seen discussion on twitter about the PT overcrowding issue as well.
There must be buses around the place that could be used. School buses for instance can be used during the day and evenings. What's happening to the diesel buses being replaces with e-buses?
Some people can rethink their timing to avoid peak times. Glide time.