Open mike 29/09/2022

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68 comments on “Open mike 29/09/2022”

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  3. 3

    Ian threatens to become worst hurricane to hit Tampa in century

    Brian K. Sullivan, Bloomberg News

    ….Ian will ride up Florida’s west coast, dragging its most powerful side along the coastline before making landfall by the end of the week. The state will very likely see widespread surge, wave and rain impacts no matter where it hits, Ryan Truchelut, president of WeatherTiger, said in an email.

    ….. Hurricane Ian could be the worst storm to hit Tampa in 101 years, according to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. The area has had many close calls in recent years, but the last devastating strike on the Tampa-St. Petersburg area was a 1921 storm that would have caused US$30 billion today.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ian-threatens-to-become-worst-hurricane-to-hit-tampa-in-century-1.1824307#:~:text=Hurricane%20Ian%20is%20gaining%20power%20as%20it%20nears,Center%20said%20in%20an%20advisory%20at%202%20a.m.

    I wonder how long will it be, before 'disaster modelers' are describing the ‘worst storm’ to hit a community, as the worst storm in a millennium?

    And what will that storm be like?

    1. 4.1

      the long gilt depreciation removed 1 trillion in value from pension funds and Insurance companies.

      It was an own goal by the gang of 4 as the financial markets did not like the mini budget.

      1. 4.1.1

        I know I should have sympathy those who'll suffer the losses but part of me says nah, let it burn. And then perhaps the pain caused will be enough to see the end of the low tax, hands off magic peddled by these clowns.

        1. 4.1.1.1

          Your Kiwi Saver will have exposure to the Gilts,as does the life insurance underwriters,As does the NZ super fund.

          Robertson went to the UK to make arrangements for NZ Gilts to be listed on the UK FTSE, in November,a position that does not need to be exercised at the moment.

    3. 4.3

      That Robert Peston thread starts to go wrong where it claims tax payers are ultimately paying for this. The BoE may even believe it but will never the less be able to make the same intervention as necessary to raise bond prices and regardless of any loss recorded on their balance sheet, as they just did.

  5. 5

    Given the debacle now unfolding in the UK, our MSM is strangley uncurious as to the link between Chris Luxon and the "highly opaque" extreme neoliberal UK think tank the Policy Exchange:

    Liz Truss "…then became head of economic and social policy at Policy Exchange, which was also listed by Transparify as “highly opaque”. Policy Exchange is the group that (after Porter left) called for a new law against Extinction Rebellion, which became, in former home secretary Priti Patel’s hands, the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act. We later discovered it had received $30,000 from the US oil company Exxon…"

    IMHO, it no coincidence that Luxon came back from the UK, where he was a "keynote speaker" at the policy exchange, spouting an incredibly hardline and extreme neoliberal policy agenda. The intellectual influence on Luxon since his return from the UK are clear, and the media owe it to NZ voters to inform them of the sort of faith based, neoliberal double down, policies the Policy Exchange advocates and appear to have been taken up bu the LOTO – and by extension, the National party.

    Make no mistake – the economic magical thinking that is tanking the UK at the moment is EXACTLY what Luxon has been proposing to anyone who will listen since his return from the UK – which isn't surprising, given the company he chose to keep while he was there.

    1. 5.1

      "Given the debacle now unfolding in the UK, our MSM is strangley uncurious as to the link between Chris Luxon and the "highly opaque" extreme neoliberal UK think tank the Policy Exchange:"….my thoughts exactly..
      ..but then our MSM, and without the slightest hesitation, would like all it's consumers to turn off any and all critical thinking capacity that they might have, and believe that the Russians have just sabotaged their own Nord Stream pipe lines….the only good thing about the way they torture logic so brutally, is that the screams of it on the rack, most days on the morning radio, makes getting out of bed very easy for me.

      1. 5.1.1

        It is amazing that theres been next to no discussion in our msm of the possibility that the sabotage was done to remove negotiations based on renewed gas flows from the table.

          1. 5.1.1.1.1

            because it is uninformed speculation, that's why.

            The only half-decent reason I have read so far for this sabotage is the Russians are demonstrating their ability to attack underwater energy pipelines to and from Norway and the UK to mainland Europe to up the ante. Remember, Putin has the unshakeable belief common to all Fascists that the west is weak and it will eventually cave if he makes life hard enough. This also chimes with recent reports from Norway of all sorts of odd shenanagins occurring around their oil and facilities in the North Sea. They've upped the protection of their facilities, and you can have zero doubt that Russian surface and sub-surface activity is now under close watch by NATO submarines and other forces.

            Think about it – an attack by Russia on key underwater infrastructure would be difficult to prove (thus preventing NATO invoking Article 5) and would be calculated to upset the fine margins that Western European countried are working to to prevent major energy issues this northern winter.

            However, it is also upping the tension in what is becoming an increasingly tense just-short-of-war confrontation between NATO and Russia, where we are rapidly approaching a situation analogous to the situation between the supposedly neutral United States and Germany in the North Atlantic between April and December 1941 – a full on unofficial shooting war in all but name in a certain theatre. All pretence was dropped when Germany declared war on the United States in December 1941, which is where this war is heading – a full on NATO/Russia confrontation.

            1. 5.1.1.1.1.1

              I get that part, just the other side seems also plausible. Once winter hits in earnest and people really start to struggle to stay warm in the face of high energy costs there is potential for civil unrest which would put plenty of pressure on politicians to go back to the table (appeasement) to get gas flows moving. Refusal to do so creates space for more pro Russian political groups to gain support that potentially drives a great big wedge in Nato.

              A destroyed pipeline removes that possibility.

            2. 5.1.1.1.1.2

              “because it is uninformed speculation”…that is what the MSM is in the bussiness of doing…and on this very subject..today, as we speak.

              Why would anyone destroy their own infrastructure that they have just finishing spending the last few years building and not just take out someone else's pipe line…?

            3. 5.1.1.1.1.3

              Sanctuary – Could the following possibly help you in your ruminations?

              ABC News @ABC – 9:59pm · 7 Feb 2022

              Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
              Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany's control?"
              Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."
              abcn.ws/3B5SScx

              End of quote. Personally, I cannot remember Putin threatening specifically any action like this…

  6. 6

    Stern words from Monbiot in The Guardian, but the UK has more pressing concerns.

    Earth is under threat, yet you would scarcely know it [28 Sept 2022]

    What is salient is not important. What is important is not salient. Most of the time, most of the media obsess over issues of mind-numbing triviality. Much of the world’s political journalism is little more than court gossip: who’s in, who’s out, who said what to whom. At the same time, issues of immense, even existential importance are largely or entirely ignored.

    With the exception of all-out nuclear war, all the most important problems that confront us are environmental. None of our hopes, none of our dreams, none of our plans and expectations can survive the loss of a habitable planet. And there is scarcely an Earth system that is not now threatened with collapse.

    The challenges of life on spaceship Earth have become too big too quickly – examples of localised collapse occur daily now. Local action will be where it's at, trying to roll with the global warming punches; to adapt so that as many as possible are 'comfortable', for now.

    1. 6.1

      The challenges of life on spaceship Earth have become too big too quickly

      It tends to make Guy McPherson's 'all gone by 2026' frightening real!

    2. 6.2

      Space ship Earth….or as has been said, a Blue Marble..or I think, a precious Jewel 🌍 ..surrounded by deep black space.

      The early 1970s marked the beginning of an era of environmental activism in the US, and the blue marble Earth photo, being the first ever taken of an illuminated face of the entire planet, rapidly became a symbol of the movement.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3218853/

      90 Years ! And they still dont get the enormity of climate change.

      https://www.nasa.gov/feature/90-years-of-our-changing-views-of-earth

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blue_Marble

      That Blue Marble photo had an enormous impact on me. Maybe it should be again put up as a reminder. There is NO Planet B

  7. 7

    So things that don't work actually work.

    /

    https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1574922349345898496

    Results

    Average COVID-19 mortality per million was 288.54 in countries without face mask policies and 48.40 in countries with face mask policies. In no mask countries, adjusted average daily increase was 0.1553 − 0.0017 X (days since the first case) log deaths per million, compared with 0.0900 − 0.0009 X (days since the first case) log deaths per million in the countries with a mandate. A total of 60 days into the pandemic, countries without face mask mandates had an average daily increase of 0.0533 deaths per million, compared with the average daily increase of 0.0360 deaths per million for countries with face mask mandates.

    Conclusions

    This study's significant results show that face mask mandates were associated with lower COVID-19 deaths rates than the rates in countries without mandates. These findings support the use of face masks to prevent excess COVID-19 deaths and should be advised during airborne disease epidemics.

    https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(21)00557-2/fulltext#%20

    1. 7.1

      yes And pity the public health leaders (Bloomfield, Fauci et al.)

      ‘He has saved countless lives’: US scientists on Fauci leaving NIH role

      Politics Spread COVID: Developing a Public Health Response [22 Aug 2022]
      The circumstances leading to one million American deaths from COVID-19 are familiar to health educators: The pandemic was politicized from the outset; public health professionals were pushed aside and sometimes attacked; in many areas, compliance with public health recommendations was low, and vaccine uptake was much less than required to meet the threat; the public health community tied itself in knots trying to figure out how to cut through the plethora of misinformation; people in marginalized populations died in vastly disproportionate numbers in spite of years of preparation to prevent just that outcome. Cumulative mortality is equivalent to some of the “worst case” scenarios put forth by U.S. public health experts at the beginning of the pandemic even though we’ve worked so hard to prepare for this type of global pandemic, so what went wrong? Profound changes in American politics have led to a relationship between public health and swaths of society that is quite unlike what previously was assumed in the dominant models of public health; it was believed that public health experts would be treated as and listened to as the experts they are in the field. As the politicization of the pandemic and subsequent deaths show, these assumptions are no longer valid and we cannot assure the health of the public as we are required to do. The assumptions that we have operated under for so long in public health now must be deconstructed and revisited in order to move forward and prevent unnecessary future deaths. To do this, we must better understand the influence of American politics and we must more effectively engage in politics at all levels.

    2. 7.2

      It might be that not having mask policies was a sign that governments didn't give much of a sht in other ways as well. Not the masks per se?

  8. 8

    Kinda gob smacked that it's lunchtime and the fact Kelvin Davis told a Maori woman she ain't moari enough hasn't been discussed her, dude needs to go.

    1. 8.1

      This seems very uncharacteristic for Davis.

      Maybe worth looking at the latest Al Jazeera documentary discussing alleged systematic racism inside the UK Labour Party.

      Maybe this kind of attitude is more common than assumed.

        1. 8.1.1.1

          Its possible.

          Maybe the previous episode then. Many of the UK Labour party members expelled for Anti-Semitism are Jewish.

        2. 8.1.1.2

          I wouldn't call what Kelvin said racist, but it is ideologically driven ie if you are Maori (or even Pakeha) you have to think a certain way otherwise you are wrong.

          So Maori who don't go along with what the Maori Party or Labour are saying about colonization and culture don't have right think. They need to change their thinking.

          BTW apparently Te Party Moari have something on their website saying that Maori are genetically stronger than other races. Even the Race Relations Concilliator is calling this racist. I think if they have no scientific evidence for this it is just dumb and part of the elevating of one race above others.

          1. 8.1.1.2.1

            Even the Race Relations Concilliator is calling this racist.

            This claim isn't true at all. Here is a link to the ACT party press release that claims racism from TPM:

            “Te Pāti Māori has been engaging in racial discrimination on its website with claims of genetic superiority, but when notified, New Zealand’s Race Relations Commissioner Meng Foon refused to publicly stand up to it,” says ACT Leader David Seymour.

            https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2209/S00157/racial-discrimination-by-te-pati-maori-must-stop.htm

            1. 8.1.1.2.1.1

              https://theplatform.kiwi/podcasts/episode/meng-foon-calls-the-maori-party-racist

              Actually although he was slow to respond to Seymour, Meng Foon has stated he thinks it is racist.

              But these are now the silly scraps that focussing on race leads to us having.

              I don't think it racist, but its possibly incorrect which is dumb of Te Party Maori to make such as statement. It then becomes a race to the bottom.

              And by the way, who discovered and decoded our genetic make up? Western Science. Irony much.

              1. 8.1.1.2.1.1.1

                Thanks for providing a link.

                Yes, it's an incorrect statement as it doesn't actually mean anything scientific; genetic 'makeup' isn't 'strong' or 'weak,' it just is.

      1. 8.2.1

        I can't find anything linkable sorry, it was a opposition in the house , querying him about child welfate, (minds gone blank on the name) he told her she needed to cross the bridge in to maoridom and stop thinking vanilla!

        This is a Maori woman raised in tough conditions being attacked by a minister of government.

        My view is maori culture is becoming the dominant religion in this country and if ypu don't jump in line your out.

          1. 8.3.1.1.1

            Well the woke left will have us believe that a man can identify as a woman and therefore actually be a woman, so unless you are up in arms about this then you can't really complain about Judith identifying as a 27 year old Slovakian model

      2. 8.3.2

        The guys a real piece of work, he makes his comments then hides behind "Davis told her he did not intend to cause personal offence, but understands that his comments could have."

        COULD HAVE That is really taking responsibility and ownership for his words and that they were offensive not COULD HAVE !!! I wonder what internal ramifications there are ??? Not many here principled enough to call him out.

        So where is this test I can take to find out how Māori I or anyone else is ???

        1. 8.3.2.1

          Yeah, so I [Chhour] received a phone call just before 12, um, to apologise, um – he [Davis] was apologising for the statements he made and if I, if I felt personally upset by those statements, and I’ve accepted that apology as genuine, and I hope that we can have more constructive debates within the house from now on, um, without personal attacks.
          https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/middayreport/audio/2018860658/act-party-on-whakapapa-and-oranga-tamariki

          The guys [sic] a real piece of work…

          !!! ??? ??? Outrageous “piece of work“. Mind you, anyone can make a mistake wink

          'Ngāti Epsom': National MP Paul Goldsmith's true heritage revealed

          1. 8.3.2.1.1

            Davis was wrong to say it and he apologised, rightly so.

            ACT demanding apologies for offence caused is a surprising but welcome turn of events. They throw much worse insults around all the time, and anyone who suggests an apology is often dismissed. If Davis had called for the execution of an ACT MP, that would be fine with Seymour … apparently. Good to know ACT won't be doing that any more, right?

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/128699219/act-defend-tauranga-candidate-after-off-with-her-head-comment-aimed-at-tolley

            But to be fair, sometimes they do apologise for their nastiness …

            https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/11/act-mp-mark-cameron-regrets-flippant-remarks-about-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern.html

            There’s heaps more, we could do this all day.

        2. 8.3.2.2

          Its just part of the new ideology, if you don't agree with them, then they denigrate you. Thus Willie calling David Seymour a "uselss Maori"

            1. 8.3.2.2.1.1

              I am not sure I am advocating for Maori as such (even though my spouse is Maori).

              I am advocating for people being able to express their opinion. Because that is what Willie and Kelvin seem to be saying that you have to have a certain ideological perspective otherwise your thinking is wrong and if you are Maori and have "wrong think" then we wll patronize and demean you.

              Maori don't just have one perspective. Funny that.

              2. 8.3.2.2.1.1.2

                I am not sure I am advocating for Maori as such…

                Apologies if my inference was wrong, and/or you’re not comfortable with it.

  10. 10

    Pessimism from economist and Putin opponent Vladislav Inozemtsev.

    In recent years, all and sundry, with or without reason, have used the popular formula that "we woke up in another country." The resetting of the terms of the Kremlin usurper, the arrest of Alexei Navalny, the recognition of the "independence" of the DPR and LPR, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – all these events received the same similar response. Today, however, it is probably worth recognizing that none of them deserved such an assessment: the mobilization announced on September 21 became a milestone that truly divided modern Russian history into “before” and “after”, an event that began the final countdown of the Putin era.

    […]

    With his decision to mobilize (and not at all about a “special military operation”), Putin announced the termination of the existing contract with the country. Today it has become clear that, on the one hand, the population no longer has personal freedoms, which for more than twenty years the Kremlin has guaranteed with a reduction or even absence of political ones; and, on the other hand, slavish obedience to power and non-interference in politics does not provide any economic growth.

    It must be understood that the redistribution of national wealth through theft and corruption of the last twenty years cannot be compared with its destruction in the aggressive war waged by Russia today. The largest amount confiscated from an official or security official (the case of Colonel Zakharchenko), which once shocked Russia, corresponds to spending 6 hours, and the cost of “Putin’s palace” mentioned in Navalny’s investigation corresponds to 2 days of continuation of the Ukrainian adventure (which, as now Obviously, it will only get more expensive over time.

    Two years ago, I spoke of how the 2020s would be “a time of terror and pure authoritarianism” for Russian power, suggesting that such tools of dominance could help Putin rule throughout the decade. Today, this forecast has to be changed: madness has reached a scale that cannot be maintained even for several years.

    “The Russian economy,” I wrote in early March, “will die by winter ,” and now I think I was right…

    https://theins.ru/opinions/inozemtsev/255405?fbclid=IwAR0vn8qQpDdG5-gkETY5n-2kJ8Vwomu8XCf6ZkHDj6ZReEwVLICD7tXTupc

    google translate

  13. 13

    For the first time in years I stopped off online to ZB news. Never again.

    Saw this from Kate Hawkesby – the other half of the Hosk.

    Pot calling kettle black? You bet.

    I haven't been following the case of the Davis/Chhour row, so it may well be he went too far. But anyone who knows Kelvin or had a conversation with him will be able to tell you he is one straight-up guy. If he lost it you can be sure he had grounds for doing so:

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition/opinion/kate-hawkesby-kelvin-davis-how-maori-are-you-routine-yesterday-was-a-disturbing-trip-backwards/?dicbo=v2-23285ec58ee70d7a2d7b42daf6772842

    Nope. I haven't listened to the audio. That would be too stressful. I'm just going on the written word.

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