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12:13 pm, April 2nd, 2026 - 31 comments
Categories: 2026 oil crisis, Christopher Luxon, Economy, energy, national, nicola willis, same old national, the praiseworthy and the pitiful -
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The oil crisis is entering an interesting stage.
It seems inevitable that the country will enter into a fuel crunch in about three weeks time as the ripple effect of the Iranian war fans out. We are currently still receiving tankers that were launched some time ago but their frequency will lessen. This appears to be inevitable and the only variable will be how long this will last for.
The Government has been missing. They keep pretending that things are ok and that we don’t have to worry. But their faith is misplaced.
It keeps making me wonder how Jacinda Ardern would handle it.
Her starting points would be that we have to look after each other and be kind to each other and make sure that no one was left behind.
She was on many occasions a centrist politician but her emotial responses to crises were always spot on.
But we have a right wing Government in power.
Their priorities and their thought processes are different.
Nicola Willis recently gave it away by describing an active Government as being “communist”. At the post Cabinet Press Conference she said:
The idea of communism in which the Government divides up the goods isn’t something that appeals to me, which is why I’m pretty determined to avoid us getting to phases three and four.”
Clearly she would prefer to leave it up to the market to fix matters. Sky high petrol prices will solve the issue seems to be what she believes.
But her optimism, that the market will see us through, is severely misplaced.
Trump’s war has resulted in about 10% of the world’s oil supply being disrupted. And the chances of this increasing as the State of Hormuz becomes more unstable are pretty high.
The current Government’s response is really underwhelming. Their lack of urgency is jarring.
And you get the feeling that they are going to be forced to eat humble pie.
Because during the last fuel related crisis, caused by the Ukraine war and exacerbated by Covid, they insisted blaming Labour for inflation, even though it was clearly caused by international events.
In 2022 Nicola Willis claimed that the Government “can’t simply blame these issues on overseas factors. It needs to front up and do its bit”.
And David Seymour is going to have to do the same. Back then he said:
The government has tried every avoidance measure in the book. They said ‘there’s no crisis,’ ‘there is a crisis but it’s happening to other countries too,’ ‘it’s happening to other countries and it’s transient.’ We clearly have a permanent and to some extent domestic inflationary problem”.
Meanwhile Labour Governments in other nations are highlighting how dire the situation is.
In Australia Anthony Albanese has addressed the Nation and he said this:
Now, it’s the Australian way that people want to do their bit – and there are simple ways that you can. You should go about your business and your life as normal. Enjoy your Easter. If you’re hitting the road, don’t take more fuel than you need – just fill up like you normally would. Think of others in your community, in the bush and in critical industries.
And over the coming weeks, if you can switch to catching the train, bus or tram to work, do so. That builds our reserves, and it saves fuel for people who have no choice but to drive. Farmers and miners and tradies who need diesel, every single day. And all those shift workers and nurses, who do so much for our country.
The months ahead may not be easy. I want to be upfront about that.
No government can promise to eliminate the pressures that this war is causing. I can promise we will do everything we can to protect Australia from the worst of it.
The Australian Government has announced that fuel excise duty would be halved for the next three months.
And in the United Kingdom Keir Starmer has said this:
The conflict in the Middle East has now entered a second month.
And while we are working at pace for de-escalation and peace, it is now clear that the impact of this war will affect the future of our country.
So today, I want to reassure the British people that no matter how fierce this storm [is] we are well-placed to weather it and that we have a long-term plan to emerge from it a stronger and more secure nation.
He then said this:
We have a five-point plan for the immediate crisis.
We’re cutting energy bills by over £100 per household today.
We’ve extended the cut in fuel duty until September, and we are monitoring that situation daily.
We’re supporting people exposed to heating oil rises – setting aside £53 million for that.
We’re taking back control of our energy security, by investing in clean British energy.
Because that is the only way we get your bills off the rollercoaster that is controlled by Putin and the Iranian regime.
And frankly, I am sick and tired of your energy bills fluctuating up and down because we are on the International Market…
…when if we took control of our energy and had home grown renewables, we could stabilise your bills.
And finally as I say, we continue to push for de-escalation in the Middle East.
Meanwhile Christopher Luxon is missing. No addressing of the nation, no policies to decrease fuel consumption and only limited assistance for working families and none for those relying on benefits.
There is no sense of crisis. The Government look like deer caught in the headlights. And their reluctance to do anything is going to cause them and the country a whole lot of angst in the near future.
+1000
And the thing I really like about the previous Labour government is that almost none of them had experience about crises including in the public service, and all of them when encouraged by good and generous leadership got a plan together that worked for the entire country … and were electorally rewarded for that in 2020.
Agreed. Labour had natural leaders lucky for us. Coalition is largely sponsored individuals doing the tasks they've been set crashing into each other on occasion.
We're so screwed with this mob at the helm. Can we get more Rimmer on camera please, ram the message home to those who voted for this shower.
Grannys doing her bit with a cabinet re-shuffle and other 'look over there' material.
COC Leaders influenced by brown envelopes !!!
Generally Left Wing Governments care for the Lower Socio-Economic Groups, Jacinda was criticised for being too caring and philanthropic during the Covid Crisis. This COC Government is only concerned with looking after the top 5-10% at the Top End of Town.
God Bless the ALP.
At this stage of my life watching successive anti worker governments. I'm now firmly in the camp of us joining the Commonwealth of Australia.
If for no other reason that the right inside nz labour have been in control for too long, and they hide within the parties frame work, which personally, is bloody dishonest.
Meaning unlike Labor in Australia, were there is transparency. And we know who is in the left and right faction. It creates a culture of standards, open discussion and development of talent.
Hell, I even liked and respected the leader of the right wing faction of the ALP – Bill Shorten, and thought he would have been a bloody fine PM. A mile ahead of Scomo. But all that billionaire money really did a job on the Honorable Mr Shorten.
Given we probably pay for most of her and luxons fuel ,and subsidized the ceos teslas, I guess they are well insulated as usual
Let the market do the work.
The fantasy that somehow 'the left' does better in a 'crisis' (a much over-used word) was surely put to bed once and for all by covid. The disastrous policies adopted then (reacting to a supply shock as though it were a demand shock) have pushed NZ into near-second-world status. And for naught, given that we're now in the top half of covid death rates, a remarkable (as in bad) performance for a small island thousands of miles from anywhere.
By contrast, the current government's response to fuel supply stress has been pretty much exemplary. They're not panicking and, unlike their Australian counterparts, they're not doing stupid things.
This article is chicken little nonsense.
[“… given that we’re now in the top half of covid death rates…”
You will need to provide a reliable reference for that claim – weka]
The pandemic was a health crisis.
NZ isn't near second world status, it just looks like that because we're so neoliberalised. Housing crisis, poverty rates, gaps between wealthy and everyone else, lack of maintenance and development of essential infrastructure including health care (because of the neoliberal ideas around market and privatisation).
None of that is on the Ardern government (although they remained wedded to neoliberalism and thus contributed like all the other governments). NZ is a very wealthy and well resourced nation. We have a problem with our ideas of politics and government.
mo
The claim is actually supported by the number on the website
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
which reports us as being number 94 of about 224 countries and territories they report. However they have a disclaimer that –
"As of April 13, 2024, the Coronavirus Tracker is no longer being updated due to the unfeasibility of providing statistically valid global totals, as the majority of countries have now stopped reporting. Historical data remain accessible. "
I have no idea about the current accuracy of the results they report, but I personally feel that a lot of them are doubtful.
The website I list was considered to have been the best source during the height of the pandemic. What they have today may no longer be meaningful. It certainly surprised me to see we were below the figure for the whole world with us at 1163 deaths/million and the world figure being 899.
is that per million people or per million infections?
That was deaths/million population.
There are different sources, and different numbers, between the two sources which we are quoting. I have no idea which are more accurate as things like "deaths from Covid" aren't easy to decide.
The sources are Worldometer and Our World in Data.
My Stats training was long ago and not at the level required to pick between them. I am not surprised that, in both cases, the more developed and richer countries have higher numbers. They probably put a great deal more effort into getting it right than a very poor country will try and do. The idea that non-first world countries did better is possibly a function of the fact that they may not have bothered to spend time getting accurate stats.
Correct, and for this and other reasons, the Worldometer ranking table was useless.
"the Worldometer ranking table was useless.".
That's a very definite statement. Can I suggest that Our World in Data may be equally likely to be wrong?
Do you have some evidence for the claim you make that is not true for the figures in the alternative set? Are you willing to share your knowledge with us? I wait with bated breath.
Sigh
Nothing good comes from trolls such as the one who started this thread with unsupported & unsubstantiated BS; at best, they’ll get ignored (DNFTT), or they’ll waste our time. In most cases, we’ll never see or hear from them again here, because they’re dim-witted trolls.
Unfortunately, you decided to feed the troll and piled more horse shit onto it. You didn’t know about the accuracy of the results and personally ‘felt’ “that a lot of them are doubtful”. You stated that your website “was considered to have been the best source during the height of the pandemic” without any support for that claim. For example, best in what, compared to what, by who, etc?
@ 5.3.1.1, you already gave two reasons why the Worldometer ranking table was useless. Since you’ve had Stats training, you’ll be familiar with GIGO, which is one of the reasons you mentioned. For example, China is ranked 221/224. Sadly, though, you still quoted your selected numbers from that table, noting your surprise (with considerable irony?), thereby repeating the BS claim made by the troll.
Nonsensical; I used the word “useless”, i.e., a meaningless stupid ranking based on misleading data that don’t tell us anything useful or informative – I cannot be blunter.
In the moderation note for you, which I still intend to follow-up and close, the reports of the Covid-19 Inquiry came up. So, I’ll refer you to those, again, for the knowledge you seem to thirst for. I won’t wait with bated breath because I’ve already wasted too much of it in that moderation of you and don’t intend to spend more time on what that fuckwit troll started here today.
Do you consider the Our World in Data site to also be "useless "
They have listings for Turkmenistan and North Kores which have had zero cases and zero deaths.
Do you think that there numbers are therefore useless? Is there any site that has, in your opinion, useful numbers? What is it?
Afaik that's per million. That does't mean no cases or deaths, it means the per million rate was so low it doesn't show.
You did see the other two columns I assume?
They claimed that they had zero cases and zero deaths. Those numbers are not per million.
https://www.healthnz.govt.nz/about-us/health-data/data-sets-and-collections/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-reporting
Virology is what it is – I've booked my next flu+COVID vaccines
https://www.healthnz.govt.nz/health-topics/immunisations/booking-a-vaccine
I like the world map format at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
NZ has a very low excess mortality count [100 cumulative deaths (from all causes) per 1 million Kiwis from Jan 2020 to Dec 2023 according to OurWorldInData, and ~200 deaths per million according to local expert analysis] that is at odds with the 'Freedum' narrative, and the WHO's data won't please all Winston First devotees.
Imho, this is one more sign that the CoC ('govt' by and for the sorted) is facilitating New Zealand Aotearoa's estrangement from rationality.
I can't see any way of deciding who, if anyone, is correct about Covid deaths. Even the Royal Commission seems to fudge the answer.
The World in Data, which claims to still be being updated, and which Weka linked to says we have had 4538 deaths. The Worldometer, as I quoted says that they stopped updating on 13/04/2024 when there had been 5697 deaths.
The Royal Commission came to the conclusion that, as of December 2023, the number was between 3925 and 5307 and say
"the total number of deaths from COVID-19 by the end of the 2023 is likely to have been between four and five thousand people, equating to around one in 1,000 New Zealanders."
The graph that follows the comment in their report still seems to have been rising rapidly at that cutoff date so the final numbers are probably significantly higher.
https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/covid-19-by-the-numbers/4-covid-19-arrives-in-new-zealand/4-4-mortality
Any of the quoted numbers could be right, or wrong.
For myself, it's enough to know that NZ's excess mortality rate (2020 – 2023) was one of the lowest in the world – an achievement (by the team of nearly five million) to be celebrated, imho.
Imho, that rejection of WHO changes is one more sign the CoC (‘govt’ by and for the sorted) is facilitating New Zealand Aotearoa’s slide into irrationality.
Here's the wikipedia, updated 12/3/26
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country#Table_of_total_cases,_deaths,_and_death_rates_by_country
New Zealand is at 119 out of 238 countries (rated by deaths per million cases), but if you look NZ is better than most first world countries. Lots of Asian, African and small island nations did better.
NZ's rate was 885 deaths per million cases. Sweded: 2,798. United Kingdom: 3,404. Australia: 963.
1,163 per million in 2024 and 885 per million in 2026?
Is that rate mentioned, dying OF Covid or WITH Covid?
I believe the rate is staggeringly different.
Given China was at 4 per million and India at 300 per million little wonder the average was c900.
Most of Europe over 2000 and UK and USA over 3000.
1000 and under were the best performers.
The low rates in Africa notable.
Excellent analysis Micky. Thank-you.
It might sound trite but the problem with these liberal conservatives – any conservatives – is they lack imagination. They truly can't see into a future that hasn't occurred on a relatively recent global scale before, so they have no comprehension how to handle them. Hence the dilly-dallying around. They don't know what to do! Luxon hasn't the faintest clue how to handle this crisis except to pretend he's in control when you know he isn't.
God forbid if they had been the government at the time of the Covid pandemic. They would have flailed around clueless during those precious early months, leaving NZ vulnerable to thousands of extra deaths.
We'll look back in a few months and recognize that the US military declining to send the F22s to Wanaka Warbirds because they needed the air fuel and air tanker, is a sign we all should have heeded let alone our government.
Starmer's approach is insane and I hope NZ's government doesn't emulate it. Lowering fuel excise duties removes the price signal to consumers that they should use less fuel, while doing nothing to mitigate the fact of a fuel shortage. It's a "good" policy if your aim is to create a much worse crisis by running out of fuel, but that isn't what a sane person would call "good."
Except so far we are experiencing more a fuel price crisis than a fuel supply crisis…….and with the current price gouging someone is making an obscene profit out of the existing fuel stocks purchased at the old price and already in storage in NZ……..
We should be grateful we're only experiencing high fuel prices – that's merely inconvenient. Running low on fuel, particularly diesel, would be a genuinely life-threatening crisis.