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11:52 am, March 14th, 2026 - 43 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, climate change, energy, International, Iran, jacinda ardern, nicola willis, peak oil, science, uncategorized, war -
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The Iranian war will severely test Christopher Luxon’s leadership capabilities and so far he has been very quiet.
Apart from bungling New Zealand’s response to the illegality of the US and Israel attacks on Iran Luxon has been missing.
And this made me wonder. How would Jacinda Ardern have responded to a similar crisis?
Which brought me back to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022.
Immediately after it happened Ardern made a Prime Minister’s statement and said this:
New Zealand joins our international partners in the condemnation of this attack and have immediately taken a range of measures against the Russian Government.
By choosing to pursue this entirely avoidable path, an unthinkable number of innocent lives could be lost because of Russia’s decision. New Zealand calls on Russia to do what is right and immediately cease military operations in Ukraine and permanently withdraw to avoid a catastrophic and pointless loss of innocent life.
The statement was clear and concise and to the point. I still marvel at Jacinda’s clarity of communication. Especially in contrast to Luxon’s muddled utterances.
Then Energy Minister Megan Wood contributed and assured the country that our fuel supply was not threatened.
She advised that the invasion would not affect our fuel supply, that we did not purchase any oil or oil products from Russia and would not be directly affected if Russian oil supply is curtailed.
She also noted that the International Energy Agency has assessed that world oil production capacity is more than sufficient to meet demand due to any disruption that may arise from the situation in the Ukraine.
The communication was immediate and to the point. And people were or should have been reassured.
Fast forward to current events and the first point to make is that the potential effects this time for Aotearoa are much more dire.
From the Guardian:
Oil markets are facing the “largest supply disruption in history” as the war in Iran continues to block tankers from shipping millions of barrels of crude each day, the world energy watchdog has warned.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the supply shock ignited by Iran’s effective blockade of the strait of Hormuz meant the world faced a deeper crisis than after the Yom Kippur war of 1973 and the 2022 outbreak of war in Ukraine.
The warning came as Iran issued a statement that was said to be the first from its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to call for the vital trade artery to “remain closed”, in a blow to hopes of a resolution to the crisis.
In response, global oil prices passed $100 (£75) a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.
Much of New Zealand’s oil comes from the Middle East.
The only public statement from the Government that I can discover on point is this one announcing the setting up of a committee.
The purpose of the committee is to “provide strategic direction during any potential disruptions, enabling swift, evidence-based decisions to protect essential services, support industry, and maintain public confidence”.
You can bet that in the background extensive work is being done on fuel rationing and that big companies and farming organisations are knocking on Ministerial doors seeking preference.
These events accentuate the stupidity of policy changes that this Government has made. Including these:
These deliberate policy decisions not only compromise the country’s emissions response. They also directly increase our dependance on imported oil at a time when we need to reduce this dependency.
And there is a lot they could be doing immediately to reduce fuel consumption. Public transport subsidies and more working from home to name just two measures could be implemented quickly.
Luxon and Willis and co contintinuously blamed the last Labour Government for the disruptions caused by the Ukraine war as well as Covid even though the cause was clearly international. And they promised to fix things.
They must be very worried. Because the Iranian war has the potential of completely trashing the green shoot recovery they claim is taking place. And voters will find it difficult to accept that Labour should be blamed for an Internationally sourced crisis but National should not.
This has the potential of getting very ugly. And people will again miss the calm principled and decisive leadership that Jacinda Ardern brought our nation.
At this point, the Hon Nicola Willis (the slimmed down version facing some of the worst conditions for an election year budget for a while) opines
The conflation of our COVID era spending level with cost of living is invalid, given one was domestic (including 2 local floods in 2 NI horticulture areas*, the change in egg production rules and no SI supply of food* because of ferry problems) and the other was international (COVID disruption to labour and global distribution and the Ukraine war).
But it is indicative of the approach that might occur and how they will try and play the incumbency continuance as security card.
That is their only signal so far.
As you note
That National realised a decline in the CPI to 3% no faster than forecast by Orr when Labour was in government back in 2023 is the fact of note. And debt is higher than forecast by Treasury, is the other.
They will try being calm, not so sure about the principled part.
One would presume that Ardern would
1.focus on the well-being of people, thus some assistance to those who needed it and some plan to afford this.
2.have a temporary management arrangement.
3.a plan that reduces future risk.
Jacinda would most likely do what she did when covid first struck….come on national TV and advise the nation what the situation for the country is and what plan the govt had to manage it……..
But would we get told the truth?
Or would she tell us that we were at the head of the queue for supplies? But we weren't.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-national-questions-front-of-queue-claim-after-revealing-first-pfizer-order-just-54000-doses/OBVQ22LAZOPFTROFBEWVI4BCAU/
You are a typical disingenuous troll alwyn……..if not then you are just a plain ignoramus……On the outbreak of covid 19 Jacinda went to the nation on March 25 2020 and informed the country of the situation….are you suggesting that was not the truth…….no you are commenting on a govt announcement over a year later in July 2021……why don't you do everyone a favour and stop being a David Seymour clone……or maybe you are Seymour……..
Did you not consider that a nation with a border wall wanted those vaccines for those at the border?
I agree SPC. Vaccines were among the earliest issues discussed internationally, and New Zealand was right there in encouraging companies to see Covid as an opportunity to make profit from urgent research and production. So we were early in the countries that looked for vaccines, but by the time they became available it was clear that New Zealand's actions had already given us lower infection and death rates than other countries, and that the poor response by the USA gave them the world results internationally – so not surprisingly vaccines when developed did at least initially go to countries that were already losing lives at a much higher rate than New Zealand.
Yup. We could only claim urgent need for those at the border (as the general population was safe as).
If the Government had actually done what they told us they had done, and actually ordered the vaccine they could have done a number of they things.
They could have, after finding that the severity of Covid was decreasing, passed them on to people with a greater need. If the severity of Covid had increased we would have been up shit creek because we had never ordered the stuff and I doubt that those wiser countries would have let us jump the queue.
Alternatively we could have used the vaccine and not have shut down Auckland the second time. We only had to do that because of Chippy et al had never done what they told us they had done. ie They never ordered the bloody stuff. If we were doing so well without the vaccine why did we have a second shutdown at all?
[This is trolling at its best: re-writing history with made-up facts. Obviously, the Government had ordered the vaccine otherwise it would never have arrived here. I’ll give you an opportunity to clarify, or retract & apologise, which is to find any information in the Main Reports of the Covid-19 Royal Commission that could corroborate your claims such as “ie They never ordered the bloody stuff” [sic] and “[i]f the Government had actually done what they told us they had done, and actually ordered the vaccine”. Don’t waste this opportunity with more trolling, as wasting Moderator time is a self-martyrdom offence on TS (https://thestandard.nz/policy/#banning), I’d like to remind you that you already were on your last warning (https://thestandard.nz/open-mike-17-02-2026/#comment-2056313) – Incognito]
Alwyn are you aware
*the whole country had access to vaccines by the end of 2021 (they came in various amounts during the year)
*we operated border barriers in tandem with Oz and vaccinated in tandem with Oz in 2021 (they had a Liberal government then)
*COVID was still dangerous to (some of) the unvaccinated in 2021 – delta era, thus we vaccinated up before opening borders.
*omicron the less dangerous variant arrived here in 2022, but got around the vaccine. So we hare flu + with us.
*Melbourne had more time in lockdown than Auckland.
https://www.platinumaccounting.com.au/blog/melbourne-lockdown-dates
Mod note
You are quite right. I greatly exaggerated the delays that occurred in our vaccine procurement from Pfizer. They did order vaccines. It was just very, very slow to get underway.
Unfortunately they were so slow to do so that any chance at all of being near the front of the queue, as Hipkins promised us, had no possibility of occurring.
Hipkins made his announcement on 16 November 2020.
""Without going into detail I think we're in a very good place to ensure that as vaccines start to come to market New Zealand will be at the front of the queue to be getting vaccines," he said."
https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/11/16/new-zealand-will-be-at-the-front-of-the-queue-chris-hipkins-says-nation-well-placed-for-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out/
That was two and a half months after his announcement about our position in the queue. A proper order, for 8.5 million doses was finally made about three weeks later, about a week into March 2021. Thus we finally got a place in the queue nearly four months after we could have.
"On January 29, days before Pfizer's jab was given provisional Medsafe approval, the Government made a purchase order for 56 trays of the vaccine, amounting to 54,600 doses. As it transpired, those trays stretched to 65,520 doses, when it was discovered six doses could be extracted from a single vial, rather than five."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-national-questions-front-of-queue-claim-after-revealing-first-pfizer-order-just-54000-doses/OBVQ22LAZOPFTROFBEWVI4BCAU/
"The initial batch of Pfizer vaccines (65,520 doses) arrived in New Zealand on 15 February 2021. Around three weeks later, the Government announced it had purchased another 8.5 million doses, to be delivered in the second half of 2021."
https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/main-report/part-two/7-2-what-happened
Unfortunately for us other countries were not nearly so slow. For example.
"December 23, 2020: Following the FDA's EUA issuance, the Trump administration purchased an additional 100 million doses."
"February 12, 2021: The Biden administration exercised an option to purchase an additional 100 million doses, bringing the total order to 300 million doses"
https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/article/2455698/trump-administration-purchases-additional-100-million-doses-of-covid-19-investi/
https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2501947/biden-administration-purchases-additional-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines-from-pfize/
The EU also got into the act. It had already ordered 200 million doses on 11 November 2020 and then it added 100 million more in December 2020.
"First Option Exercised (Dec 29, 2020): The European Commission exercised its option to purchase an additional 100 million doses, bringing the total order to 300 million doses."
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-receive-authorization-european-union
Those are only examples. I'm sure their were many others.
Yes, I was wrong. They did order the vaccines. Why did they take about four months to do it though so that, instead of being near the head of the queue we were way, way back in the line?
We were a long time after many other advanced countries in our vaccination program of course. At least 4 months behind for this random group. I have recorded number of individual vaccinations per 100 people.
On 1/4/21 we had Israel 111, UK 53, USA 52, Singapore 25, Canada 15 and New Zealand 1.
On 1/6/21 we had Israel 117, UK 96, USA 92, Singapore 72, Canada 63 and New Zealand 13.
On 1/8/21 we had Israel 124, UK 124, USA 104, Singapore 136, Canada 128 and New Zealand 38.
These were obtained from
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Think
1.nations with a border barrier were not those with the most urgent need.
2.as a nation with a border barrier, we first gave the vaccines to those working in that role.
3.compare us to Oz (under a Liberal Party government).
It is hilarious how the right wing (and their media) attack the Labour government here, when across the Tasman there was the same policy (and timetable as our own).
I believe that Australia decided to go it alone on a Covid 19 vaccine and that they intended to use it for all vaccinations.
Unfortunately it had problems and was scrapped in December 2020, which meant they had to decide on a new approach rather late in the piece.
Don't take the above as gospel though. I never followed what they were up to over there at all closely.
The US did things very well. Trump should really be praised for the US push which led to a vaccine so quickly. They ordered a 100 million doses of Pfizer in June 2020 to provide the funds for the firm to go ahead.
What was that Chines saying? "Let a thousand flowers bloom" or somesuch.
The idea that we didn't have to do anything about vaccines and we could let other countries is all b**s, an after the event excuse. If we really thought that we would have said so at the beginning, not claimed that we were leading the pack.
l.The closed border was an option few had and we adopted it, pre vaccine.
You correctly note.
2.Others would lead the way on vaccines – first in development financing, then in access.
There is nothing most of the world could do about that (apart from those that developed their own vaccine).
So when it was said in November 2020
This did not mean that they were then able to purchase. They had to wait for the Medsafe process –
And that first purchase was to provide for border staff.
3.At that point the issue became the queue.
Which nations had greater need is relevant.
In June 2020, a profoundly ignorant President Trump said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_of_the_Trump_administration_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic#June_16%E2%80%9330
Alwyn, you may "come here only in the wish to bring some enlightenment to the ignorant", but your June 2020 date is wrong – did you mean July?
Yeah, so I made another Typo. Do you ever do that?
July it is and a very sensible thing to do at that time. If countries like the US hadn't gone ahead with this sort of thing how long would it have been before we had developed a vaccine?
Slow down Hamsterman
How long indeed – care to enlighten me?
Hey, N is pretty close to L and E is near Y. At least they are if you are as bad a typist as I am.
My God. I would have thought your quoted comment from Pfizer was just a joke if you hadn't provided the link. I wonder what the old fool threatened them with if they hadn't hinted about a Nobel Prize? For him no doubt.
I think that the Nobel Committee that pick the medicine winner should give Pfizer, and a couple of the other vaccine producers a shared Medicine Prize. That would really drive the orange orangutang up a tree. Another case of somebody else stealing his prize. They already gave the 2023 prize to the discovers of the method though so perhaps it might be just a step too pointed.
If you say so – seems like a bit of a reach to me
"seems like a bit of a reach to me"
Ah hah.
Are you like The Donald and have very small hands? Marco Rubio said something about that. That was before he became Secretary of State and he probably wouldn't say it now of course.
Actually I don't always use a QWERT keyboard.
Just checking… ordinary, phew!
Strange factoid to drop this late in the convo – couldn't stretch to a 'Y'? Still, using keyboard layouts that decrease errors makes sense.
Alwyn, do you know 'The Last Coin', by James Blaylock? A fun read
I give up Officer. I used the word "Typo" wrongly. I'll plead guilty as charged.
Ray Bradbury's 1951 story The Pedestrian has become reality.
So hang me.
Hang in there, Alwyn, your wish might come true soon enough, figuratively.
15-minute cities have never looked better.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15-minute_city
But Alwyn – could you handle the truth? You are a bit mixed up and Jack Nicholson would have to sort you out – youtube from 'A Few Good Men' – You can't handle the truth! Oh for a few good men or women, at positions of NZAO leadership able to handle the wily ways met with from all sides when heading anything these days.
I presume you think you have something sensible to say.
I can't work out what it is though. and I don't think it is me that is the confused one here. I also fail to see what the associations of either Optometrists or Orthodontists has to do with anything we are discussing.
Would Ashley have lied.
Ardern would hold the perfect emotional-political note and play us like a black grand piano.
Whereas Clark would form whole enduring institutions to meet any future head on.
@Ad It sounds like a 'bum' note to you it seems.
As we all need to lift our spirits FTTT Peter Sellers demonstrates the debacle that can arise from such a note. He creates one as Pat O'Shaughnessy and his Men of Shamrock on google youtube. (I don't put the link as I tend overexuberance with those.)
Shame Jones was on Checkpoint on Friday (sorry I can't find it to link). He said we had so many days of petrol and diesel, but didn't appear to take into account the panic buying that was happenig. How many days do we have left now? Shouldn't rationing have been considered? He said that the high level ministerial committee they had set up was keeping a very close eye on it, He seemed to be fixated on how he could blame Labour for the problem as he made three claims. One that the shortage was caused by Labour closing the refinery, a private company. Does he consider Watties closing factories a CoC decision? He said that stopping exploration was another factor and Labour had made so many mistakes according to the Covid inquiry that his committee would be able to learn from them. I am not assured that this motley crew will be any use in a crisis, probably the opposite if they are trying to turn it into an election issue.
IF??
Good grief, they'll play politics with the issue for all it's worth, regardless of whether or not it's in the interest of the country as a whole. Getting themselves re-elected is all that's going to matter to them from now till November.
OK, yes, Luxon is no Ardern and his response even to everyday issues is woeful, never mind major disruptions like this. However, it's a bit unfair to use Ardern's response to the invasion of Ukraine as a comparison. That one was a no-brainer: unprovoked invasion of a neighbouring country for the purpose of imperial expansion, the response pretty much writes itself. If the USA were to invade Canada with the explicitly stated purpose of eradicating Canadian culture and annexing the country, I'm sure MFA would write something for Luxon similar to Ardern's response to Russia and he could wade his charisma-less way through it on a teleprompter. Reducing the Islamic Republic of Iran's ability to cause death and misery throughout the ME isn't a comparable situation and is less simple to respond to.
Yes. She couldn't really go wrong with respect to Ukraine: all she had to do was just spout the conventional wisdom.
A bit before Ardern's time but if we are bringing up the unprovoked invasion of a country then the creation of the state of Israel at the top in modern times.
It was and is a disaster for the security of the Middle East and we are again finding out Israel is a disaster for the global economy.
So true. The unprovoked invasion of Israel by multiple countries when it declared independence is one of the most shameful episodes of modern history.
You are still struggling with the blatant breach of international law by Israel and USA in attacking Iran, I see.
he's pointing out the differences in the two situations. If you want to argue that this is irrelevant because of breaches of international law, it's like to see that argument.
If you want to argue that there's no substantive difference between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israeli/US strikes on Iran, go ahead and best of luck to you – you'll need it.
Who cares what she would do?
Or Key, Muldoon, or Clark, all are long gone.
Key still has his pinkies in the pie.
This was my thought to, we don't have Ardern, or anyone from before, we only have what we have and they are rubbish so I can't really see what anybody was expecting bar Luxon being useless, Winnie making sure he comes across smart enough so his 8% vote for him and Seetwat just being himself… a twat. Welcome to NZ politics, always looking out for themselves
Not sure what Jacinda would do but the tv news interviewed Willis tonight and her response was "The longer it goes on, the more it will impact us,".
Wise words and setting the bar pretty low for any other politician to show some leadership.
Everything so far, reminds us how lucky we were to have actual adults in Government during covid.