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- Date published:
8:46 am, March 6th, 2026 - 65 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, national, nicola willis, polls, same old national -
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It has been a hell of a week for Christopher Luxon.
He has clearly been under immense pressure. His response to the US invasion of Iran has been inept. His position, that New Zealand did not support the invasion but would not go into the legality of the US action and leave it up to them was inept.
His monday morning interview with Corin Dann on Radio New Zealand was a train wreck as was his afternoon post cabinet press conference. His performance in Parliament was poor and he was obliged to correct an incorrect answer to a question that he made.
The reporters clearly could sense blood.
And then this morning’s news that National had slumped under 30% in the Taxpayer’s Union poll would have been devastating.
From the Herald:
The Taxpayers’ Union is set to release a poll tipped to show the National Party only a couple of points above its disastrous 2020 wipeout.
The poll is done by Curia, which also does internal polls for the National Party. It is likely to be released this morning.
The Herald understands that the poll is the worst in the series since Judith Collins led the National Party, with a rounded figure of 28% circulating among MPs.
That would be about two-and-a-half points above the party’s performance in the 2020 election (25.58%) and lower than the last 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll recorded prior to Simon Bridges losing the leadership. National scored 38.06% at the last election.
Chris Bishop will be licking his lips. And this time Nicola Willis may change her view and withdraw support for Luxon. Because on these figures her return to Parliament would not be certain.
Interesting times …
Our Prime Gibberisher Christopher Luxon – in response to a question during the Press Briefing:
"We obviously understand… we’re not saying that…what we’re saying that…what we’re saying… we’re… we understand there’s…I don’t know how I can any be clearer, guys…"
Can you provide a link to this?
I took it down, to the best of my ability, frequently stopping and replaying, of video clips from the press conference.
Do your own research (as you frequently urge others to do, as recently as yesterday) – the video is readily available.
For instance, you could try BHN – now that might shake your foundations!
" the video is readily available."
What video? Saying " the Press Briefing:" doesn't identify it. Luxon would have at least one of these every day I would think.
All I am asking for is a link to the video you are appearing to quote from.
This video: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/588406/watch-new-zealand-not-asking-questions-about-us-israel-attacks
At around 15:30
Thank you.
He did quite well as long as he could read what he was saying. When he had to come up with his own words of course he was terrible. Unfortunately that is what we pay him to (try) and do (badly)
Very happy to help.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/03/luxon-flounders-on-iran-as-opposition-pushes-for-principled-response/
That was just astonishing to watch. Would NZ support repeating in Iran what happened to Hamburg, Dresden Tokyo etc in WW2? It's a question with a very obvious answer, mate! How could you stand there completely flabbergasted? This was right up there with Chris Hipkins floundering in complete uncertainty when asked 'What is a woman?' They're simple questions, you imbeciles, not trick ones.
Cripes, Hooten has the knives out.
Ah yes the man who was cheerleader for Todd Muller from his herald soapbox then departed to work for him, only to return when it all fell apart.
Bishop's got skeletons aplenty should he take the top role, bring it on. Voters will smell the desperation IMO.
Chris Bishop has gone to India for the cricket final.
It would be very funny if there was a coup while he's away. Come on Erica, seize the moment!
Link?
Can’t find it on The Herald.
https://archive.li/ToGpl
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/luxons-incompetence-is-a-threat-to-national-security-opinion/premium/6BIXT7G24NHLZNJEGQPXSAXCPM/
National: 28.4%
RNZ "National falls into the 20s in latest poll as pressure mounts on Christopher Luxon"
"Labour is up slightly on 34.4, while the Greens, ACT, and Te Pati Maori are all up on 10.5, 7.5, and 3.2 respectively."
"National is ahead on the economy and spending, while Labour led on health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing, environment, and not increasing taxes."
I find that the Curia polls tend to tell me more about certain factions desire for leadership change in National, than any accurate accounting of the country’s mood.
That said sadly or hopefully polls in the NZ media tend to not be analysed
(how many undecided voters were there? Were they significant? How accurate has this poll been in the past? Does it tend to overstate and particularly parties support? Can this be tied to its methodology? )
and then these potentially very slight changes in actual numbers of polled preferences are used to create a narrative. And often the polls have 3-4 completely different narratives running. And sometimes these are self fulfilling, as they tend to determine coverage and particular tone when covering various parties.
That said, I’ll take what I can get in very gloomy times.
Lab 34.4 Gre 10.5 TPM 2.7=47.6
Nat 28.4 NZF 9.7 ACT 7.5=45.6
Assuming TPM win at least one seat the Left has it. Luxon is toast.
6.8% wasted vote in this poll is high.
TOP is getting close to 4% in the polls. This could be the year they get 5%.
We know what will happen, and anyone who's paid attention has known it for 2 years at least.
It's not right v left, it's competent or incompetent. Key and English were up to the job, Clark and Ardern were up to the job. Very different characters and priorities, but all had the minimum skill level required (such as, occasionally managing to utter a coherent sentence that is vaguely on topic and doesn't insult your intelligence).
Luxon doesn't have it, and never will, and only a deluded fool can't see it.
National will get rid of him before the voters have a chance to.
So, in that analysis, the big question is does Hipkins have 'it'?
He got comprehensively ditched at the last election – so was clearly perceived as 'incompetent' at that point. Have things changed? Or is it only in comparison to Luxon that he shines?
Is it better Cluxon gets rolled, or, is it better he stays in place with the periodic speculation he is to be rolled. I am almost in favour of the latter, a leader who many voters have already hung up on and speculation that further undermines and weakens his leadership
Labour should support a loser-Luxon should stay as leader campaign.
Problem is that competent is soon going to be competent at voter suppression and media control.
That’s going to be another wrinkle.
How can you judge competence if you’re getting poor information?
How can you judge competence if you’re getting poor information?
Same way as always. Go to the source, unfiltered.
I don't need a reporter or editor to tell me how Luxon performs in his Monday press conference or Tues & Wed questions in the House. I can listen to his Monday morning interviews and that's Luxon speaking (blustering). And so on.
It's not the 20th century any more.
Finally we have a proper crisis for this government to deal with, after the Ardern one had at least one every year to deal with.
And this crisis – a proper oil+gas crisis and Middle East trade and NZ travel crisis, has the ability to be at least as bad as COVID.
But this time there is zero international cooepration potential to help us.
Even if Luxon went down and someone else took up as Prime Minister, would the new leader form a plan to help us through this?
Can this government front up to a crisis and form a plan, as the Labour government did so well?
New Zealand as a whole has a lot riding on that question.
Not really. It wasn't the overseas crisis, or even the trade implications of the Covid crisis that Ardern was judged on, it was the internal aspects – the pain of repeated lockdowns – especially in Auckland.
As I have said repeatedly this week, it is the impending economic shock upon New Zealand in energy and trade that this government needs to show it is up to leading us through.
Willis has already signalled that this will likely derail their economic recovery plan such as it was, and of course has a material impact on the 2026 budget and upon inflation which will have a mortgage interest rate impact.
You will start to see this play out in Parliament next week. But more materially there will be very hard questions asked about the pre-budget announcements that they already have diarised.
Or, it may give them a get out of jail free card.
If the economy/budget was already munted (which has been extensively argued on this site) – then this gives them the perfect excuse.
'Sorry, it would all have been fine, except for the Iran war. Can't blame us for that!'
Nations coming out of COVID had to manage out of their debt growth, while facing the global cost of living rise. The governments still got blamed.
I'm confident Labour would welcome Luxon and Willis making a case of their utter powerlessness to voters this year.
Ummm – there is a difference between being reasonably prepared and making decent decisions, and the flailing around of incompetents who haven't prepared at all.
NZ has 23 days of diesel left;
Strait of Hormuz still closed 3 months later. Middle East war widens; and trucks and tractors are no longer running. The price of airfares inside NZ have risen by 12% per day fro 20 days before stabilising. Ford Rangers are now a liability while BYD and Tesla drivers still travelling….
Government still trying to extract guaranteed promised 60 days of fuel from US and Australia…
The difference was that Labour executed a modified epidemic isolation and economic preparedness plan based on the reports after the 2018 flu epidemic, updated in the 1950s and in 2006.
They did it well and had awesome results in containment until vaccines went into widespread distribution. Sure it helps that we live on islands far from anywhere else. But the reality is that didn't help in 1918 because the government of the time were about as ignorant and self-entitled as our tory born-to-rule dimwits in government are now.
That a minority of fools felt themselves too privileged to either read the history, nor understand the science and instead spent all of their time whining about it on social media.. Well who really who cares about the lazy.
We'll have at least 5 to 10 more epidemics of unknown diseases over the remainder of this century, all of which will spread extremely fast. That is based on what has been happening over the last 30 years. It really only takes one of those to fail to be dealt with a governmental level to really munt us.
Can you see National, Act or NZ First being capable of defending against those? Having worked themselves into a political corners while scraping for the votes of the disinterested and rather lazy loudmouths.
Nah – they will do what National did after 1979, with the Maui gas field. Flog it off for nothing much as they had failed to prepare for oil shocks and fail to realise any significiant economic advantage from it. They managed to use most of it producing the worlds most expensive petrol on a gas to gasoline project, just as the world prices for oil dropped like a stone.
The 'lazy' still vote. And (presumably) contributed to tossing out the Labour government in 2023. So, actually we all care about their opinions.
No doubt Labour and the Greens can make your points to the electorate. But they do have to sell their narrative (even if it is the 'right' one).
A repeat of the lockdown in Auckland while the rest of the country got vaccinated (for repeated lockdowns there were more in Europe and Melbourne).
She was indeed judged on it, and the verdict was 50% and a landslide.
The crisis didn't go away after that, it (like the virus) mutated and that cost her. But it was never bigger and deadlier than in 2020, when there was no vaccine. A fact often forgotten as history gets rewritten by her opponents.
Yep, initial response positive – and she did indeed win a landslide in 2020.
Didn't go so well after that. Tanking approval ratings in 21 and 22, and by 23 she didn't want to play anymore.
It seems to be very widely accepted that the '23 election result was a Covid referendum, and the result was a heavy loss for Labour (including Hipkins who was an integral part of Ardern's Covid-management cabinet)
So – high levels of approval for the 2020 initial crisis management – when there was indeed no vaccine; low levels of approval for the management from 2021 onwards.
Just been reading up on our fuel issues since seeing Hickey's "Three weeks of diesel left" at The Kākā.
There are probably a number of ships in the pipeline. But
Petrol and jet fuel look like they are in the same order – 28 days and 26 days.
MBIE Fuel Security Study from February 2025. Page 20. Jeffrey Halley for RNZ: NZ has ‘healthy stock levels’ of fuel – MBIE
Jeffrey Halley for RNZ: NZ has ‘healthy stock levels’ of fuel – MBIE
We get most of our fuels from Asia, from, memory, mostly around the refineries near to Singaporean. However most of the raw sources for those refineries come from the middle east – Saudi, Kuwait, UAE etc. Right in the conflict area.
The problem is that the supply to the refineries that we buy from gets disrupted. I'm also pretty sure that we just buy on market prices rather than having long-term deals.
Since the whole fuels market runs on expectations of future prices, I'd expect any disruption causing massive price spiking – which is what we're seeing. But also we'll be getting countries and organisations securing deliveries as far into the future as they think that they need to, and planning to store as much as they can in their own storage and on shipping coming to them. Effectively constraining the supply further.
It isn't just going to be a matter of prices jumping (12% up on Jet fuel overnight in something I read this morning), it will be trying to get a continuity of supply.
The US is talking about 4-5 weeks of conflict. But since they have no apparent plan or any coherence beyond the dribble of 'but the Israelis were going to do it, so we followed their lead in the hopes that they knew what they were doing…'. I suspect more like 6-12 months of disruption in supply.
Hands up – anyone who thinks that either Willis or Luxon or anyone else in this pack of cockups in government will be able to handle this kind of economic shock.
The only thing that they seem to be good at is culture wars and tearing down anything that anyone else built without any analysis of reasoning. Probability of them being capable of doing anything constructive is completely fucking unlikely.
Just more whining that it was all the result of Labours policies. That appears to be about their extent of intellectual rigour.
I do expect the closure of Marsden Point to be raised.
I don't think it's relevant (if refined products aren't being shipped, oil won't be either).
But it's an 'easy' cane to use on the last Labour government.
Perhaps sucking up to Trump may pay dividends in oil supply from the US?
It doesn't seem likely that the Asian supplies will be heading NZ's way any time soon.
Asian supplies had better keep coming or we will really be in trouble,
New Zealand get about 90% of its supplies from refineries in four countries in SE Asia. In order they are South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan. They of course get most of their crude supplies from the ME.
All of the Iranian oil supply goes to China. That seems highly likely to come to a screeching halt over the next few weeks (after whatever is already in transit is delivered). I seriously doubt that NZ can outbid China for supply within Asia…..
lprent (who I’m absolutely willing to admit knows more about this than I do) – is predicting NZ is in serious trouble over oil
Yep National have been merciless in attacking Labour for Covid/Ukraine war induced inflation and supply chain crises.
Now they have new crises to deal with.
They promised New Zealand Nirvana and teddy bears and cheaper everything.
Blaming Labour is no longer going to work.
National will have to explain why they have failed to lead us properly.
Sadly it must be noted that Labour @ 34% us down to Luxon's performance not Labour's
Just stand back and watch your political enemy burn their house down.
Yep. It isn't like Labour has had to release policy and election commitments early when Nat/Act and NZF have been screwing up so badly.
And those parties started with such a basically good economy when they came into power.
Inflation was dropping like a stone. Overinflated house prices were staring to drop. Employment was very low.
But now National is running increases in government debt levels in one term that are higher than Labour did over a freaking pandemic and lockdowns. Mostly because their taxation collection is dropping like a stone because there isn't any profit to tax, and under-employment is sky high.
It appears that they haven't figured out something as basic as doing rapid screwing around dropping taxes and cutting expenditure doesn't increase productivity in the short term or even the medium.
It just depresses the economy faster, and fundamentally reduces tax revenues. They did exactly the same thing in 1990-1992, 1998, 2009-2011 and like religious fanatics they are busy trying to do the equivalent of legislation that Pi should be a nice short number – rather than a never ending value that just happens to be built into the structure of the current universe.
The Indiana Pi Bill: Often misremembered as an attempt to legally define as pi = 3, the 1897 Indiana Pi Bill actually proposed a mathematical "proof" that would have implied various incorrect values, most notably pi=3.2
"Inflation was dropping like a stone."
Really? The quarterly inflation rates from the December 2022 numbers to September 2023 were 1.4%, 1.2%, 1.1% and 1.8%. Thus the highest value during the last year of the Labour Government was in the period immediately prior to the election which took place two weeks after the end of the September quarter, on October 14, 2023.
In the lead up to the election you can only talk about "falling like a stone" if you mean a stone in a bucket of mercury which is still being filled.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-inflation-by-country-2020-2025/
"Dropping like a stone" is hyperbole but inflation was dropping, here & elsewhere.
Luxon is an obvious cause. But the few times lately I've listened to Hipkins, he's been good. Twitter videos, rather than direct MSM coverage.
By good I don't mean Labour have had a sudden lurch to the common good. I mean he comes across as caring and competent and relatable. That's good stuff in election year.
TBF, it is only through MSM mainly RNZ/Stuff and the TV news once or twice a week when visiting Mum I see politics.
It's a heavy heart that see us going the same way as the UK, the Tories are so shit that Labour look good. That isn't panning out so well over there.
I was somewhat heartened by watching Hipkins, I will post here next tiem I see one.
I also despair to see the path NZ is on. I don't think it's set in stone.
Summary
National is being hurt by the poor rating of the performance of the coalition to deliver results. That falling on them.
ACT has only held its own partisan support. And is happy with things as they are.
NACT only governs for about a third of the electorate and their total recognises that.
NZ First has gained some, more because it is seen as able to be an alternative to Labour in opposition to NACT.
There is a little of the Sports Post era about NZ First. So conservative it has a fag in the mouth, bets at race meetings, attends Heartland rugby games or NPC games, drives around in a petrol engine vehicle and thinks the economy revolves around exploiting land and resources land assets (Think Big era thinking).
Though they are better on wages, infrastructure and regions than their current partners.
One of many reasons why Luxon is finished is the non-response today. He disappears.
When Clark was opposition leader and had terrible poll numbers (worse than Luxon's) she stared everyone down, including her caucus, and made it very clear she wasn't going anywhere. Called their bluff, in effect.
Luxon could do what various leaders have done (in several countries) and do the old "back me or sack me". Dismiss the poll, tell the media he's fighting to win, demand a blood oath of loyalty, sack any waverers … you know how it goes. Turn the narrative on its head.
But he has never had to scrap for anything in politics (gifted an electorate, gifted the leadership, even gifted the election to some extent). And it shows.
+100 Obs.
I think he is fairly materialistic and selfish which doesn’t work as PM….he is probably thinking about the fat pay packet he would get if he chucked this gig.
I doubt that he is thinking about the money. Don't forget, he took a big pay cut when he came in to parliament, and even as prime minister is earning far less than he could or used to.
I heard bulletins about the PM's interview with Heather Duplicity-Allen this afternoon. One report was that Luxon said internal polling didn't reflect the Tax-dodger's Union Curia poll.
But it's the same polling company, FFS. So how does a publicly released poll differ so much from private party polling by the same corrupt pollster?
Answer: That corrupt pollster is lying either to the public, or to the National party.
Stupidity-Allen, as a broadcaster of note, could have asked the PM about this simple conflict of stats…
…but of course she didn't.
Also, that same corrupt pollster is now taking the extraordinary step of dismissing his own poll on his partisan political blog.
Why do journalists and broadcasters continue to entertain this known fraud?
Toby Manhire at The Spinoff aligns with my own comments made here on TS, but with much better wording and context, that Luxon is most likely the preferred dogsbody by the two tails, out of self-interest, of course.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-03-2026/if-national-mps-want-to-roll-luxon-there-is-one-big-hurdle-in-the-way
Manhire is superb. I had forgotten that angle…..so I retract my "Luxon is toast” comment above. He is safe, the upshot being that the Left can be confident of victory.
Yes, Manhire is good and The Spinoff has been growing on me lately.
I find that Lyric Waiwiri-Smith write good reads too.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-03-2026/as-national-hits-28-in-new-poll-is-christopher-luxons-leadership-at-risk
PS don’t forget the comments under those Spinoff pieces, as they sometimes contain good insights and real gems too.
What could Winston do, at this stage in the Electoral cycle?
If he decided to withdraw from the coalition then he would only have the choice between leaving them with Confidence and Supply or having a new, immediate, election. His party would lose all the Ministerial jobs they hold. I don't think his supporters would go along with a sudden flip of saying he would willingly support Hipkins as PM for the rest of this term given his absolute statement of refusal to go into power with Hipkins as the Labour leader. He can flip after another election but I don't think the public would go along with him doing it in a way that left him in Cabinet after a couple of weeks of jacking up his rewards for another 6 months of power.
To answer that, you have to think like Winston Peters, which you clearly don’t and neither do I. And you ask the question as if WP holds all the cards, which he doesn’t.
"WP holds all the cards"
Manhire's exposition certainly imply that he thinks that Winston holds enough cards to ensure that Luxon can't be rolled without his agreement.
You’re stating the same thing again, claiming that Manhire implied it too. Despite what you might think, I presume, politics is master skill of subtleties, nuance, and context. Peters has it, Manhire understands it, and you don’t.
"Peters has it, Manhire understands it". You were doing quite well up to this point in the sentence. Then you drifted of into some ill-informed speculation.
Elementary, my dear Alwyn.
In a desperate (losing) battle to keep his job, Luxon takes to social media and responds to his critics … how dare they say he is out of touch?
Instagram
You could not make this up.
After a weekend of (presumably) reflection and consultation, Luxon decides that the best way forward is … to keep saying exactly the same things, repeating the same cliches and pretending it's all fine.
(see his Mon AM interviews, RNZ etc)
Hipkins must be hugging himself with glee today. National's best option (the dignified resignation, "I have listened" etc) has gone. So it's on to the second option, the caucus tomorrow.
And if he's still there after that, and National MPs are all continuing to pretend publicly that there's no problem (while privately admitting the opposite) then the story will run and run, until the inevitable end.
Fools.