Curia and TPU, which I’ve consistently said has reasonable public comparable, political polling data, despite its history, shows:
- Labour gaining 12 seats
- National lose 10 seats
- Greens lose 2 seats
- NZ First gaining 5 seats
- ACT lose 1 seat
- TPM lose 2 seats
That makes for a 61 to 59 majority for the left.
But if you factor in National’s voter disenfranchisement laws1, that have consistently seen National lose 2-3 seats from, and could now be reversed, that makes it tenuous.
Victoria Director Consulting’s Smith also notes that Labour and Greens alone are closing ranks on the Coalition.
We would want to see the Green Party extend their voter base if possible here.
We are also looking for consistent trends and most polls are still waivering on the line.
To date, we’ve seen consistency in NZ First gaining popularity, TPM support not recovering after their internal implosion, and Labour methodically gaining ground.
Comparable to the IPSOS poll, Curia/TPU have Labour ahead on 8 out of 10 major issues, including inflation, taxes and health.
The former two are the ones National and ACT have been hitting Labour the hardest on too.
In this version of the poll, and in contrast to IPSOS, National are seen as better on the economy (IPSOS had Labour beating National on the economy last time, and on equal footing this month)
TPU also have an odd category called spending which they say National is better at, which is TPU’s primary agenda and talking point so can be in my view ignored – the related angles are already covered in economy and taxes.
Minor party polling trends
This poll shows why NZ First strategists have been trying to take votes from ACT. ACT is weak/stagnant and on the left, the Green Party could see more momentum.
Most important things to remember right now:
- It’s still 8 months out from the election
- Many Kiwis are finding themselves de-registered on the Electoral roll. Make sure you and your friends are enrolled to vote and double check it.
- Don’t under-estimate the pure unadultered fire power and resources of the right, that typically outnumber the left 10 to 1.
- In the 2023 election, a number of American / anonymous organisations registered to run attack ads against Labour and the Green Party – expect more this time.
- The voter disenfranchisement law, passed under urgency, is significant to the odds of National winning
- Stay active in your communities and play whichever role you find drawn to if you’re engaged in politics.
That the current govt is regarded as better managers of the economy shows just how absurd and disconnected from reality some polls can get……….
" That the current govt is regarded as better managers of the economy shows just how absurd and disconnected from reality some polls can get………."
Its those same drongo's that voted for this regime in the first place that are agreeing with that question and some others who have swallowed the decades long propaganda by the MSM.
Remember to check your'e enrolled, as CoC will bend rules as far as they are able.
What a picture to choose to illustrate the story.
Put a couple of the ghosts from Shakespeare's play Richard III in the picture to show us what we had from this lot before the last election. Surely Parker and Wood are not going to be reincarnated to torment us, and their former party, again?
"Out damned spot! Out I say!"
Why should we even pay attention to your trollish dumplings here?
Michael Wood is the Mt Roskill candidate: https://thestandard.nz/daily-review-21-11-2025/#comment-2051986.
It was in the media in November and here’s his announcement: https://www.facebook.com/mwoodnz/posts/my-full-statement-announcing-my-candidacy/1219851716630719/.
Has he made up with Hipkins, and will he be allowed a reasonable position on the list? He was dumped down to very near the bottom after his misbehavior with the shares he owned but didn't declare in 2023 wasn't he?
He might need the list to have any chance of a return to Wellington.
Idle speculation is the best you can do. Are you so desperate to score a point here?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-03-2026/horror-poll-for-national-and-luxon-which-big-beasts-would-be-out-of-a-job
Apparently the is another COVID variation on the way and it seems it may be a nasty one. If it hits us in a big way before November we will get to see how National handles it, and given the parlous state of our hospitals I think we may be in for a rather rough ride. How would that affect the election.
Stratus doesn't look any more lethal than current strains, but it is more transmissible.
1 News article on it from July last year.
The current situation in the US re-Stratus.
We are in the middle of an upsurge in Covid cases in NZ.
The country's problems run deeper than Luxon's unpopularity.
" What has gone wrong is not mysterious. The government’s programme—an austerity agenda paired with policies that overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest—was always going to collide with the lived reality of most New Zealanders. The promise that money funnelled upward would somehow 'trickle down' has never been more than an article of neoliberal faith, and the results are now visible: job losses across multiple sectors, rising poverty, and widening inequality. The government’s response has been to double down, insisting that pain is temporary and discipline is necessary. But for many people, the pain is not temporary—it is their daily life.
" Labour’s response has been to accuse National of being 'out of touch,' and on the surface that is true enough. Yet what Labour does not say—because it cannot—is that the country has had enough with the neoliberal economic model that both major parties have treated as unquestionable for nearly four decades. Labour criticises National’s management but not the underlying framework, because Labour has no intention of abandoning it. The party that once promised to transform the economy now promises only to administer it more gently "
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-countrys-problems-run-far-deeper.html