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Who’s in trouble in the USA?

Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, October 30th, 2017 - 73 comments

More trouble for Donald Trump as it is expected someone in his camp will shortly be charged with offences by the special prosecutor Robert Mueller.

The repeal of the Hobbit law

Written By: - Date published: 12:24 pm, October 29th, 2017 - 70 comments

Labour has indicated that as a priority it wishes to repeal the Hobbit law, a clumsy attempt in breach of International Law to prevent workers in the film industry from organising collectively and to divert attention from the fact that the National Government had been played by Warner Brothers.

Why is James Shaw our new Minister for Statistics?

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, October 29th, 2017 - 124 comments

Why statistics? Some speculation as to how this fits together with James Shaw’s other portfolios, and what the motivations and goals were taking up what is seemingly a minor ministerial position as part of a confidence and supply agreement.

The new Green Ministers and Undersecretary

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 am, October 28th, 2017 - 60 comments

An outline of the Green Party positions in the new government, and which Green MPs hold them.

Spare a thought for Steven Joyce

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, October 26th, 2017 - 36 comments

Steven Joyce had a bad day yesterday. His claim that National’s use of one of Eminem’s song was “pretty legal” was shown to be anything but. And he stuck to his claim that there was a $11 billion dollar hole in Labour’s budget, casting doubt either on his honesty or on his competence.

National loses itself

Written By: - Date published: 3:46 pm, October 25th, 2017 - 86 comments

It seems that National’s use of Eminem’s song lose yourself was not so legal.

The new cabinet

Written By: - Date published: 8:03 am, October 24th, 2017 - 78 comments

Details about how the next Cabinet may be made up are emerging. Winston Peters may regain the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs as well as being Deputy Prime Minister.

This coming digital war

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 am, October 21st, 2017 - 68 comments

This is the first Labour Government of the digital age.  How progressives respond to social media attacks may be crucial to its success.

NZ First: We could and should be doing better

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, October 20th, 2017 - 15 comments

NZ First chose to be inside Cabinet in a full coalition. I’d rather expected that they would choose to be in a confidence and supply agreement as they did with Labour back in 2005. That they decided to take the risk despite their previous experience with National is a stunning level of trust. But they work well with Labour.

Jacinda Ardern’s speech

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, October 20th, 2017 - 25 comments

If you missed it last night – Jacinda Ardern’s first speech as PM elect is everything that we could want and expect. But the take-home line of the drama belongs to Winston Peters.

The next Prime Minister is …

Written By: - Date published: 6:58 pm, October 19th, 2017 - 416 comments

Winston Peters has announced that he will be going into coalition with Labour and Jacinda Ardern will be the next Prime Minister. Let the attacks from the right about how unfair it is that a minority party did not ascend into Government and how MMP needs to be reformed begin. For the rest of us – this is a time of hope…

Today is a win-win with Winston

Written By: - Date published: 8:48 am, October 19th, 2017 - 103 comments

It appears that Winston is about to announce the decision of the NZ First party about their coalition partner today. For those who seem to think that coalitions should be formed with rapidity, they simply shouldn’t. That is the path to making stupid decisions, and I am yet to hear a single good reason to do it.

A letter to my middle-class, well meaning, professional, liberal friends and family

Written By: - Date published: 10:24 am, October 18th, 2017 - 4 comments

A post about the responsibility to advocate for change in a visible way.

Peters’ greatest hits

Written By: - Date published: 9:10 am, October 18th, 2017 - 8 comments

Lloyd Burr at Newshub rounded up 23 of Peters’ most quotable attacks on the Nats and their failed government. Add them to the collection of issues that Peters will have to disown if he goes wrong and picks Right.

Another day

Written By: - Date published: 5:03 pm, October 17th, 2017 - 34 comments

Just watched the “waiting for Winston Peters”  live feed from Stuff. It sounds like the NZ First board know what they want and now there will be a bit more negotiation with both major parties to get closer to what the NZF board were after. They are heading back home leaving the politicians to finish up.
Updated: Winston in one-on-one talks with Bill and Jacinda last night. Looks like it is getting serious.

This is the day *

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, October 16th, 2017 - 120 comments

* but delays are possible.

Nats – lousy at government – “brilliant” at opposition

Written By: - Date published: 9:57 am, October 15th, 2017 - 102 comments

Peters has the opportunity to put an end to this useless government (and turn National into “the opposition from hell”). I think he’s going to ’96 us, but I’d be happy to be proved wrong

IMF: higher taxes for rich will cut inequality and won’t hurt growth

Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, October 14th, 2017 - 104 comments

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it now favours higher taxes on the rich and has demolished the myth this might adversely affect economic growth. The authoritative Washington-based think tank in its influential half-yearly monitor also argued for taxes on capital, suggesting a wealth and/or land taxes should be considered, something that will make Gareth […]

Into the Vortex of Confirmation Bias: why we won’t be able to figure out which way Winston will go…

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, October 14th, 2017 - 160 comments

Every morning, as the waiting for Winston to decide continues to fray my fragile psyche, I can look at myself in the mirror, contemplate my own frenzied speculative hopes for an Ardern Prime Ministership, and immediately think of a host of strong social-methodological reasons why all such speculation is futile.

The Nobel Peace Prize

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, October 13th, 2017 - 12 comments

Last week, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). This is a coalition of NGO’s from over 100 countries, which has led the charge to convince nations to outlaw nuclear weapons. The committee honored ICAN for “its work to draw attention to the catastrophic […]

Every body wants to rule the world

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, October 12th, 2017 - 195 comments

D day approaches. What will happen? Will we have a decaying toothless National Government moderated by coalition with New Zealand First or will we have something more exciting?

Last day of talks

Written By: - Date published: 7:40 am, October 12th, 2017 - 26 comments

It’s the last day of coalition talks (probably). Peters has certainly created big expectations of “change”, but what they will mean in practice is still anyone’s guess.

Politics or Policy?

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, October 9th, 2017 - 56 comments

Policy is everything, Winston Peters said today. This should not be a surprise. Before every election, he has refused to give any hint of Party support preference until after the vote. But he will have thought a lot about what he might want, as it has long been clear that his Party would decide the outcome. So what are his policies?

Prepare for four days of hot air

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, October 9th, 2017 - 40 comments

Expect to see agendas on display, and egos, and reckons, and the occasional gleaned factoid. But don’t expect predictions to be any better than chance.

Why Labour may form the next Government

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, October 8th, 2017 - 173 comments

The prospects of a Labour led Government have improved dramatically following the release of the final election results.

Young on coalition options – an edge to Labour

Written By: - Date published: 7:57 am, October 7th, 2017 - 21 comments

Audrey Young on the coalition dance: “Labour would probably have an advantage because of the greater policy overlap”, “Keeping deputy leader Paula Bennett out of the first pro-forma courtesy meeting was an appalling decision by English that simply says he was desperate to please Peters at any cost”.

Ten Reasons for National to do another term

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, October 5th, 2017 - 28 comments

A tongue in cheek list of reasons why it may be best for National to form the next Government.

Good call from Ardern

Written By: - Date published: 9:46 am, October 3rd, 2017 - 86 comments

I have very mixed feelings about a Labour Green NZF government. I certainly don’t think that Labour should “pay any price”. So I’m pleased to see Jacinda Ardern acknowledging the Greens.

National no friends

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, October 2nd, 2017 - 194 comments

In a sign of desperation Bill English rang Winston Peters on the weekend but the call was not answered.  Clearly National realises that waiting for the special votes to be released will significantly weaken its bargaining position.

The Herald doesn’t want Winston to go with Labour

Written By: - Date published: 11:58 am, October 1st, 2017 - 132 comments

The Herald has offered a number of opinions this weekend saying that Labour forming a coalition with New Zealand First would be a very bad thing.

English, Joyce, Bennett et al desperate to keep their power?

Written By: - Date published: 9:54 am, September 30th, 2017 - 60 comments

This might look like smart politics for National to draw the Greens in with National but a more primary motivation might be that English/Joyce and co. are desperate to form a coalition with anyone, otherwise as individuals, they’ll certainly lose their power within the party in the inevitable shakeup.