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8:33 am, April 21st, 2026 - 19 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, mark mitchell, national, nicola willis, same old national, simeon brown -
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Big day today.
Christopher Luxon is floundering and the thought that he may lead the country through the impending fuel crisis fills me with dread. Although a change of leader will not assuage that feeling.
Polling is tight and a change in Government is possible but not guaranteed. This Government’s law changes that will prevent up to 100,000 kiwis from voting may be a game changer. But a change is possible.
National MPs must be nervous. In a recent letter to subscribers Richard Harman has cited research and suggested that National may lose Nelson, Hutt South, Banks Peninsula, West Coast Tasman, Wairarapa, East Cape, Kapiti, Mt Roskill, Maungakiekie, Wigram, Northland, Whanganui, New Plymouth and Hamilton East. He did not mention Waitakere which is somewhat startling. I can confidently predict that Labour will win the new seat of Waitakere which is predominately the old New Lynn seat won by National at the last election.
And the sense of entitlement amongst the contenders is strong.
However none of them engender excitement among the public. Chris Bishop has most support but at 2% support for him being the Prime Minister it is within the margin of error.
Factional battles within National will probably prevent change occurring. The conservative christian section will not support Bishop and prefer to stick with the status quo.
Luxon should survive. Unless and until he loses at the next election at which time he will be removed. He will then get a knighthood and he will remain wealthy and be completely sorted.
And Mike Smith may be right about the prospects of a snap election and this may affect deliberations today. National must be privately concerned at what a full blown fuel crisis could look like and it may be better to go now than wait until November. And a leadership change may provide a pretext.
Stay tuned …
Willis now has too much private baggage to get to number 1.
Luxon should be dignified and stay with his ship.
And the Captain…goes down with his ship : )
The CEO goes down with his canoe.
The CEO goes down with his Cook Strait Ferry.
The Right are despairing
"…it’s pretty clear Luxon is going to be rolled; and that in turn will lead to the Nats losing big time…as such a change in election year has done forever…excluding Ardern taking over from Little, which was the sole exception in the last 50 years…"
(snippet from Farrar's blog)
No one, outside of National/ACT, wants a cigarette salesman to become Prime Minister.
So they propose the 4(four) times married Dog Handler/Mercenary.
Yeah, leave Luxon there but bring forward the election.
If the National Party caucus meeting goes ahead today, the focus will be on…
…exterminating those pernicious leakers!! Highest priority!!
I think the next leader of the National Party will be Pāora Goldsmith. He’s brash and gives even Brooke van Velden a run for her ideological money. His pedigree is strong without lobby liability and he’s kept the National vote high in the RW bellwether seat of Epsom since 2011. He’s well connected with a good balance of nationalism and conservatism.
First Māori Prime Minister!
Pai kare!
Winston Peters will be seething that another bro pipped him to the post.
In this 2020 news item Paul Goldsmith explained his connection to Māori heritage and clarified the incorrect comments of the late Nikki Kaye:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/05/26/nationals-new-deputy-leader-incorrectly-describes-paul-goldsmith-as-maori/
…"And Paul Goldsmith is obviously Ngāti Porou," deputy Nikki Kaye said, adding that three women MPs were in the top four positions…
However, when asked, Mr Goldsmith said he is not Māori.
"The Goldsmith family have connections with Ngāti Porou. My great-great grandfather had European wives and Māori wives, so I’ve got lots of relatives across Ngāti Porou. I don’t claim to be Māori myself.
"I think they’re just making a broad statement about there’s a wide variety of backgrounds in this party," he said in reference to the leadership team…".
Presumably Goldsmith won't/can't now claim to have Māori ancestry.
Sure, but Goldie can claim Māori-adjacency, which is even better in/for National!
I remember that incident well. It caused me to write this …
On Tuesday of this week Tova O’Brien collated this news piece to review the events of the day which included National coming under fire because its front bench were all white, hurried discussions of which were the Maori MPs and where were they placed, the startling revelation that Paora Goldsmith was a member of Ngati Porou, his denial in real time, his explanation, Muller and Kaye doing stunned mullet impersonations at the revelation, Paula Bennett being asked about Goldsmith’s alleged Maori heritage and pulling this face …
… Nicola Willis thinking that Simon Bridges was still leader, Winston Peters and Shane Jones poking fun and then withering political analysis by Tova.
The film is a piece of art, high drama merged with the Thick of It. This film review by Hayden Donnell at the Spinoff is blisteringly funny. He describes the film in these terms:
…
Good times …
Yes, those were Goldies’ days, when we could still have a laugh about National and the same actors who’d 6 years later feature again a dystopian comedy with an A-lister parachuted in the main role but who recently couldn’t remember the name of the Māori cast member. History does repeat itself in weird ways.
Like +100% following in the footsteps of his tipuna Apirana Ngata and James Carroll East Coast.
Simon’s Wilson’s pick is Simeon Brown.
https://substack.com/@simonbwilson/note/c-246540894?
“Who’s the senior MP who articulates best the ideas National Party members believe the country wants to hear: in transport, energy, housing, health …? Who’s the MP with a “reputation for getting things done”? Who would command media attention and doesn’t come with disloyalty baggage? Who can match NZF and Act for anti-wokeness? Who “represents” Auckland and is proud to be a “suburbanist”? Who does the party faithful love? Keep an eye on Simeon Brown y’all”
The Bank Teller who is now Minister Of Health.
The famous 5 factions within the caucus is a continuing series.