One can understand why John Key is ‘speed dating” to form a one-seat majority in Parliament. His honeymoon is likely to be a lot shorter in the next term of government. It is quite different for Labour. The caucus would be wise not to rush to decide who leads Labour into the next election.
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
The Greens can be very proud of their achievement this election. With 13, probably to become 14, seats, they have achieved the second-best ever result for a minor party under MMP. They have succeeded in becoming credible to mainstream New Zealand. What they do next carries big risks and big potential rewards.
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The specials are going to be crucial in a number of seats, and to determine whether National can form a majority without needing the Maori Party. National could easily lose 2 seats on specials, leaving 58. Banks and Dunne bring 1 each, which equals 60 out of 121, not enough to pass legislation without at least tacit support from elsewhere.
I’m just back from cleaning up our election day HQ after last night’s party. With apologies to lefties who aren’t feeling too flash today, and with particular sympathies to Labour MPs who didn’t make it back, I had a good election night.
I agree with Anthony Hubbard in today’s SST “Turning the spin around” – not yet on-line. The most outrageous piece of spin in the election was Chief Ombudsman Beverley Wakem’s justification for allowing the Treasury to refuse to release documents relating to asset sales as requested by TV1, the Greens and Labour. Hubbard calls it a cop-out and a cave-in – he’s right.
It’s been a funny kind of election and there’s a lot to ruminate on over the next few days.
Here’s a handful of random thoughts on the matter…
Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to […]
Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to […]
We will try to keep updated with the results of the election as they come through. And we hope that you will do […]
We’re not posting posts and not allowing comments from 2359 tonight to 1900 tomorrow after the polls close.
Thanks everyone….
Regardless of who you decide to vote for, it’s really important that you do exercise your democratic duty to vote. Here’s a link […]
76% of Kiwis are against National’s plan to sell our assets. We know it just doesn’t make sense. We know privatisation leads to higher prices, under-investment, asset-stripping, and profits going overseas rather than into public services. Make no mistake: the only way to stop asset sales is to vote Green, Mana, Labour, or New Zealand First.
Over at norightturn idiot savant has declared his voting intentions. And let’s face it, in a representative democracy how you vote is where the rubber hits the road.
With that in mind Standard authors who feel comfortable with the concept are declaring the who and why of their democratic activities this Saturday. Commenters are free to join in.
If you’re still undecided, www.onthefence.co.nz is a cool little website that will help. You choose three issues that matter to you and how much you agree with two opposing statements on each those three issues – and it’s done with cute sheep graphics. The website then matches your priorities and the three parties that best fit them.
In the end its pretty simple for me. I’m asking you to vote for the Left this election, for 100,000 reasons.
Both Labour and The Greens have policies that will lift 100,000 children out of poverty.
For the sake of your neighbors in Auckland and your extended family throughout New Zealand, could the voters of Epsom please terminate the twitching corpse of the Act party. Once they may have had a purpose. Now they just have John Banks and that other failed politician. Let us look forward into the sunset without this zombie party being maintained by the misplaced charity of the voters of Epsom.
We’ve been getting links to this song for a week or two. Wish I’d gotten round to posting it earlier. Just fantastic.
Hiding in his mansion/While half the population flies across the Tasman/The other half try to act like it’s not happening
There’s no depression in New Zealan’/ Just a slow sinking feelin’
It’s been a costly election for Key. After the teapot tape fiasco and the subsequent police raids on media, his political capital with the media (except for die-hard fans) is spent.
This post originally appeared on the Hand Mirror and we reproduce it with their permission. It is an account of a National Party meeting in the Wairarapa, and a stark reminder of the dark heart of the Right that hates and fears anything different, which wants a New Zealand built for a rich, Pakeha, male, straight business-owning elite.
Key and Collins say police training next year hasn’t been cancelled. They say fewer new cops are needed because fewer are leaving. All lies. The attrition rate is rising, not falling. There is 1 training wing booked next year, not 4. Cause is cuts. 5% nominal to the training college, 15% nominal to Police HQ. Meanwhile, Key is wasting Police time over the tea tapes.
We’ve been getting emails and comments from people getting robo-calls from John Key. These pre-recorded calls are notoriously bad campaign tools. Invite lots of backlash. Odd National is introducing them (they used them last election but only on election day as a get out the vote tool, not to campaign). Shows they know this election is tighter than it looks.
The parties’ closing addresses screen tonight on TV1 at 7:30pm. Here’s Labour’s – a strong finish to a strong campaign.
This election is a referendum on Asset Sales – will you vote to save our Assets?
Posting this early so that it leaves the afternoon schedule free for election related posts.
Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to […]
Keeping up brand Key means keeping the help in line.
Just pity the poor buggers that have to help hold that facade up.
Another of those pictures that is worth a thousand words.
The old timers say never trust a Tory. Can see why. Exclusive Brethren. Hollow Men. Tranzrail shares. Secret agenda tapes. Teapot tapes. Suppressed asset sales advice. Climate change ‘hocus pocus’. Police hiring freeze. We keep on discovering their secret agendas. If you care about integrity, if you’ve got enough pride not to put up with being lied to, you won’t be voting National. Only chumps tick Tory.
I don’t think I can recall an election in NZ conducted under such a cloud of extraordinary and dubious circumstances as this one. Media raids, suppressed information, lies, and apparently even discussing the weather could get you in to trouble.
John Key said last night the Nats has boosted Police numbers by 600. In fact, 2008, Police numbers have grown by only 442, 5.4%, barely more than population growth. All but 80 of those extra cops came in the 2008/09 year – under Labour’s last budget. Cops per capita has fallen in the last two years. No wonder there are more unsolved crimes.
Last election we had a choice between competent economic management and a bunch of hollow promises. We made a poor choice then, and the record shows that we have wasted three years as a result. Coming up to this election we don’t need more tired Nat excuses, we need solutions. Bring back Labour!
I see that the Nats in drag anti-MMP campaign have brought space on our banner. Now I know the mood of the authors on this subject. They’d like MMP with tweaks – which will happen in 2014.
I looked at the anti’s pathetic ad, and decided that it was more effective to take their money, counter it (like the Standards enhanced logo?) and comment on it.
