One of the more interesting observations about this election campaign has been the effect of having the rugby world cup on the political process and therefore on our political blog stats. They were really crammed into the last two months and disrupted by big games.
Weekend social is for non political chat. What’s on for the weekend, gigs, film or book reviews, sports, or whatever. No politics, no […]
A lot has been written in the aftermath of the election. I want to quickly note two excellent pieces that you might have missed in the rush.
Well we have just moved out of the election month, and we’re now getting the gradual fall back of readership and posts. About the only growth around NZ at present is in political blogging.
I’m happy to say that we now appear to consistently be either level pegging with Kiwiblog or exceeding their totals for a number of months. Since we have been ‘advised’ many times that this would never happen, I’m finding that it is rather more satisfying than I expected.
Six weeks ago CMP workers were locked out for refusing to accept a 20% pay cut.
Tomorrow there will be fundraising protests around the country to support them.
In May, they were promising growth would be 4.2% in 2012. By October, it was 3.3%. November, 2.5%. December, 1.5% …. with ‘downside risks’ aplenty. Looks like we’re going to be waiting on that brighter future a while longer. Vernon Small points out there’s no way National’s going to keep its promise to get back into surplus in 2014. When will they tell the truth?
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David Parker has withdrawn from the leadership race of the Labour party according to Stuff. Predictably Kiwiblog, Stuff, and probably the other right-wing […]
It worries me that the media and right wing are trying to take control of the Labour Leadership contest. There’s no great hurry with Christmas around the corner (no new leader is going to get a lot of traction over the summer holidays), but the consequences of making a hasty decision will be disasterous for the party, and disasterous for New Zealand.
Ubiquitous Tory blonde #5 (Jo Goodhew?) was on Backbenches last night. At the factory where Nat backbenchers are stamped out, they’re programmed to say ‘John Key’ whenever possible. It went wrong, though, when Goodhew said she was proud to be a reelected member of the John Key Party. It was a slip that told the truth: National, and the Right, is now completely dependent on one man.
Law firm Chapman Tripp has taken it upon itself to summarise the business community’s expectations for National’s second term. Back to youth rates, and that’s just for starters.
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Labour would do well out of a long, positive leadership contest with all the contenders getting well-known by the country as they express their vision. If we can’t get Phil to stay, how about we have Annette hold the reigns as interim leader for the duration of the contest?
A Herald editorial today outlines some possible reasons for falling voter turnout. It left one important reason off the list…
In the Budget, we were told to expect 4.2% growth in 2012, which would make getting back into surplus and creating jobs possible. The Pre-election Update reduced it to 3%. Now, the OECD says ‘2.5%, providing Europe doesn’t go to crap .. oh, and Europe’s going to crap’. We’ve got to accept that economic growth won’t fall on us like manna from heaven anymore and work out how to build an actual brighter future.
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In what must be a record for broken promises, National have on Day 1 of government delivered a letter to Forest and Bird that they will renege on their promise of public consultation before allowing mining on public conservation land. Denniston will be mined, without the public having a say.
Have just received an email from Labour’s President Moira Coatsworth. Phil Goff and Annette King to resign Labour’s leadership effective December 13. Moira is urging all Party members to make their views known to their MPs about the new leadership.The caucus will make the decision but members will have their say. Good.
Nationals yapping poodles here were doing it during the election by calling Labour “nasty” in violation of any level of common sense. John Key and teabags. In the US similar supporters are calling Obama nasty for pointing out a lying political ad by Mitt Romney.
Don’t ya know the right are always the poor victims… I just tend to find them to be whining dickheads. But I am actually trying to be nasty.
No Right Turn takes Key to task on his perception of a “large majority”.
I’m calling it right now. This is last election where the Maori Party’s will return MPs. It has gone from 5 to 3 MPs, 2 of whom are retiring this term, and the survivors have had their majorities slashed (on the back of scandalously low turnouts). Turia and Sharples will take the baubles again, which will just be the final nails in the party’s coffin.
Looks like Labour will have a proper leadership comp with Goff as caretaker till early next year. Good. Let’s get to know the options. Labour needs to get this right. Because the next Labour leader needs to be the next PM in 2014. Needs to be able to win. The poor people of NZ can’t afford another lost 3 years being squeezed and ripped off by the Tories.
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In 2005 the UK Conservatives badly lost a third election in a row and their leader announced his intent to resign. But they organised a well-run contest to replace him, and by the time he won David Cameron had gone from unknown outsider to popular public figure, and the once ‘toxic’ Conservatives were electable again.
The Old Masters give us their verdict on the 2011 election.
Not wanting to get into a fight with my fellow lefties who advocated a vote for NZ First, but did you want an 8th NZ First MP instead of the excellent Raymond Huo?
The dangers of voting strategically…
Moira Coatsworth is looking at a review of what worked and what didn’t this election. I’d participate, but I’ve long since found that the internal communications of the NZLP are too sclerotic to pass operational information through. Quite simply the message gets munged by political types with limited understanding of electorate campaigns long before it gets to the people who need to hear it – the mechanics in other electorates.
My views on one thing that does work – concentrating on electorate canvassing data.
One can understand why John Key is ‘speed dating” to form a one-seat majority in Parliament. His honeymoon is likely to be a lot shorter in the next term of government. It is quite different for Labour. The caucus would be wise not to rush to decide who leads Labour into the next election.
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
The Greens can be very proud of their achievement this election. With 13, probably to become 14, seats, they have achieved the second-best ever result for a minor party under MMP. They have succeeded in becoming credible to mainstream New Zealand. What they do next carries big risks and big potential rewards.
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The specials are going to be crucial in a number of seats, and to determine whether National can form a majority without needing the Maori Party. National could easily lose 2 seats on specials, leaving 58. Banks and Dunne bring 1 each, which equals 60 out of 121, not enough to pass legislation without at least tacit support from elsewhere.
I’m just back from cleaning up our election day HQ after last night’s party. With apologies to lefties who aren’t feeling too flash today, and with particular sympathies to Labour MPs who didn’t make it back, I had a good election night.
I agree with Anthony Hubbard in today’s SST “Turning the spin around” – not yet on-line. The most outrageous piece of spin in the election was Chief Ombudsman Beverley Wakem’s justification for allowing the Treasury to refuse to release documents relating to asset sales as requested by TV1, the Greens and Labour. Hubbard calls it a cop-out and a cave-in – he’s right.
It’s been a funny kind of election and there’s a lot to ruminate on over the next few days.
Here’s a handful of random thoughts on the matter…
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