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6:00 am, July 25th, 2026 - 51 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Latest Talbot Mills poll today:
Lab 33 Gre 9 TPM 3=45
Nat 31 NZF 12 ACT 7=50
Nothing really good for the Left here. National closes within 2 points of Labour. The Greens down 4%. A 5-point lead for the CoC.
Having said that it's one poll and it's still close.
The 2023 election was 52.8 to 41.6, a gap of 11.2.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361010786/third-poll-shows-opportunity-just-shy-5-threshold
The left bloc have been consistently below the right bloc for more than 18 months. It's a waste of time yaying or sighing at individual polls.
The Opportunist Party is a Trojan horse.
But tWig the polling now is Left 46.3 to Right 48.7 (excluding the Opportunist Party) according to the rolling average on the Wiki NZ General Election page. This is a gap of 2.4%, where at the election the gap was 11.2%.
You would be a brave man to call the election for the Right on these numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
The problem seems to be due to a couple of groups of troublemakers: lawyers and politicians.
Seems to me that both left & right deem the thing too slippery to grapple with. Islamic complainance produced by idealism is up against a nigh-universal ignorance driven by pragmatism: ignore the thing, then it will go away… https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/781240/oozing-pain-plea-for-politicians-to-tackle-hate-speech
We had blasphemy law legislation until the Labour government of 2017.
A colonial inheritance, given we did not having a state religion like the UK Crown (a bit like prayer in parliament).
The National plan (keeping the blasphemy law – for covert reasons most remain unaware of) was to have a Labour government remove it and then replace it with a hate speech law – they would then campaign on free speech to make it a one term government.
But COVID interrupted Labour enactment. The virulence of the post 2020 election result right wing reaction led them to reconsider legislation before 2023 (that bonfire).
We can see The Taxpayers Union and The Free Speech Union as bulwarks of conservatism, on which the right wing will stand.
It was Jeanette Fitzsimons who got me into commons ethos long ago. Now the topic has returned to currency: https://unherd.com/2026/07/the-democrats-soul-healer/
That seems an experiential hinge upon which many voters could pivot, huh? Then there's something worse than existential angst: spiritual rot.
Heroism to the rescue! Know what to do, then do it!
Serving time in purgatory as a political activist will strike many as a sign of authenticity, I suspect (especially christians). That effort deserves a reward.
…"he and his fellow parents are barred from filming their own kids playing hockey by the for-profit entities that now control much of youth sports." Perhaps he really means 'the business' culture, so that those who can build an enterprise around anything would go for it.
It invaded religion – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology, and competitive sport culture with money not just glory involved. Harold Abrahams, a Jew, announcing the sport results of the 1500m 1936 Berlin Olympic Games wasn't being paid to cheer on Jack Lovelock to his win. One can't say though, 'those were the days', as WW2 and Jewish, gipsy, factory-mass-murder followed. If we could get a positive, respectful culture, fettering money and vicious emotions to where they would be impotent, that would be a great thing.
Further on Abrahams and Liddell and film Chariots of Fire, food for thought? – https://www.britannica.com/topic/1924-Olympic-Games-1117726
As for humans wishing to follow religions or cults, it seems that we will follow some charismatic leader, or ideology of the times, not necessarily religious. Women will follow someone who seems to embody their ideas of being a stand-out within the current memes of society. Men I think want to achieve an acceptable position amongst their peers, often in sports, perhaps showing volatility that is not admired in females. Religion is an addition, in an attempt to spread a universal morality decided by leaders of society.
Food for thought here. Watch out for the Nasdaq plummet.
"While it’s impossible to predict when exactly fears of an AI bubble will hit a breaking point, analysts warn it’s a matter of when, not if. The consequences could be disastrous if the industry were to collapse in on itself, bringing down entire economies — which have vastly over-indexed on AI tech — with it."
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/problem-ai-industry-collapse-efficiency
The nasties have got it in for us, but brave Venezuela takes a moral stand:
I look forward to Lux expressing solidarity & probably ought to send Todd McLay there to make a deal with them: "Hey, your jungle would look real good with these plastic fence-posts around it." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/venezuela-to-exit-international-criminal-court-accusing-it-of-bias
Marco Rubio rules Caracas, it was his decision.
An online comment called Rubio Venezuela's 'Viceroy'. Very apt.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/07/25/why-parliaments-bad-guy-playbook-fails-women/
Coalition mark II doesn’t look like it’ll be an improvement and about half of the electorate condones their misogyny as if it’s [their] Right.
I doubt that is true. People vote for a range of complex reasons. There will be people that don't agree with the pay equity thing but who vote for NACTF for other reasons that are more important to them.
Nah, same thing, they implicitly condone it (plus a whole load of other things).
It isn’t the point that there might be things that are more important, the point is that some things such as pay equity and/or family violence aren’t important enough per se. Other examples are Climate Change and child poverty. It’s not a tenable situation and stance.
Good doesn’t cancel out bad.
IMO
it's not about cancelling out. I am completely opposed to the Green Party's position on gender and sex. I rate women's sex based rights as incredibly important, up there with rising fascism, both of them second to the climate/eco crisis. So when I vote Greens, I am not saying that it's not important enough. I am voting for the Greens because it gives use the best strategic advantage for teh world not burning, and I believe that the sex/gender issues can be resolved a different way.
some hypothetical examples.
someone won't vote for Labour because of the pandemic. They might be supportive of Labour policy on pay equity, but they can't bring themselves to vote for Labour again.
gsays gives an example below about sex/gender. There are people for whom sex/gender is so fundamental it will override all other considerations. It's not that pay equity isn't important. I've seen US GC women talk about not voting democrat over sex/gender, despite the risk to abortion rights, because they believe that losing the fight over sex/gender will have much worse long term consequences. They're not saying abortion isn't important.
A divided society.
Our circumstance
Since when
Which is why Labour’s win and Working For Families
tax credits from 2005 was important
Who we are
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361049923/blindness-and-blame-make-nz-not-so-great-country-raise-children
"People vote for a range of complex reasons."
Funny you should say that, I caught up with my brother today doing some gum firewood. Near the end we had our usual
shouting matchpolitical exchange.He voted Nat/ACT because he can't vote for any pary that doesn't know what a women is, happy for puberty blockers to be handed out like lollies and chemically carstate kids. I did try the angle that a libertarian shouldn't care about that and that he was getting outraged on someone elses behalf. He kept coming back to harm to kids.
I do think his reasoning is bullshit. Like the yanks and their 'rather be dead than red' refrain, he physically baulks at any notion of anything remotely woke (if that is triggering for anyone, insert progressive).
But hey, his vote is worth the same as mine.
gsays, that sounds so like the interactions I have with my brother-in-law. Religious narrow and thinks Seymore is great!! Says left thinking is misguided.
He always votes too!!!
My lifelong RW s-i-l recently ruled out voting for ACT because of their recent choices of candidate (PH and ML; SN wasn't in the frame at the time). Yet she occasionally sports a little Israeli flag stick-pin, still thinks ol' Four-O's is OK, and has just fallen out with Canadian friends who naturally consider him a PoS. Whatever influences her choices, it sure ain't intellectual rigour.
(We and our respective spouses do get along all right, but only because politics is strictly off limits for discussion.)
the way I take that in people I see it in, is they're not leftist anyway. Even the ones that used to vote on the left, who now won't because of sex/gender politics. Unfortunately some of those people are shifting their views on other issues now too. Biggest leftie own goal of all time. It's scary though. I do wonder if it's an natural overcorrection for the excesses of liberalism/neoliberalism, in which case, it should come back more progressive or left or green. But I suspect it's going to be a hard lesson for the left and the liberals show little comprehension of the problem or the danger, let along the solutions.
I'm envious. I wish I had people in real life I could shout about politics with.
Ive been reflecting on yr comment here. I suppose you are right, we can do that and still maintain a relationship. I am always left a little sad as he is so reactionary. It's not that he is for a lot of what Seymour/Peters/Luxon stand for, it's that he is against what Labour/Greens/TPM stand for.
So many contradictions, had kids when he was very young and relied on the state help that was available to them, uses the health system a fair bit – ambulances 3 times through chainsaw 'incidents', hernia op etc. Largely pays little PAYE, (in firewood, cash is king).
Back to yr observation, thanks for reminding me of what to be grateful for.
Just remind him that every National MP and every ACT Party voted for self ID.
"Those convinced against their will, hold their own opinions still."
There is a world of difference between self ID and using puberty blockers at more than 6 times the rate of England and Wales.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350431555/puberty-blocker-use-much-higher-nz-other-countries
Mentioning the National and ACT vote on self ID vote is the right riposte
It does not sound like it. Next time agree, where you do.
Selective quoting of half a sentence can make anything the right riposte.
I did agree that we have an issue with the amount of puberty blockers 'prescribed'.
You agreed with him on the matter mentioned in the other half of the sentence and apparently said so.
It was left as the only matter in contention.
National and ACT have left the matter largely to NZF, because of their vote on self ID.
Giving bright young people something to hope for and work towards (aka invest in themselves and in their future) and then dashing it feels cruel. It’s a waste of time, effort, and potential.
https://www.nzno.org.nz/about_us/media_releases/artmid/4731/articleid/7097/hundreds-of-nursing-graduates-left-high-and-dry-by-te-whatu-ora [HT to Scoop: https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE2607/S00055/hundreds-of-nursing-graduates-left-high-and-dry-by-te-whatu-ora.htm ]
Then I read this very well written piece by a bright young person.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/25-07-2026/my-friends-are-all-leaving-nz-should-i-stay-or-should-i-go
The Spinoff is the only mainstream publication that I know of that gives a consistent voice to NZ’s younger population/generation.
Less about the point of the plight of our youth but in accord with;
"At a time when health care is falling into a deeper crisis with emergency departments bursting at the seams, wards overflowing and workers overworked due to chronic understaffing,…"
Yesty, my wife (ex ED nurse of 28 years) visited her Dad who was feeling poorly. Cognitive decline, very short of breath and puffy feet, ankles and legs up to the thighs. Couldn't get into the local Drs practice so went to the after hours clinic, only to be sent to ED.
An hour and a half, not seen. It wasn't till the type 1 diabetic, query heart attack in his mid 80s collapsed in the waiting room did meaningful action occur. 26 hours in ED, now in EDOA, a 12 bed 'holding ward' till either a bed in a ward comes available or the weekend ends and he is sent home. The level of nursing care is bare minimum, 3 nurses in a row unaware of diabetes and it is only the care and attention of his daughters that gets him out of his urine soaked under clothes.
Must be some fat in that system Brown and Willis can trim.
It is National government practice to operate hospital wards at 90% staffing. They burn out staff and then replace them to save money (they R and R and then go to Oz). Some graduates just go direct to Oz (paying interest on education debt), then world OE. Others staying here – working for GP's or aged care etc until they get a hospital job and then move to the private sector before getting burnt out (it is not as if the government is loyal to them).
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361049865/its-song-and-prayer-hidden-cost-1300-empty-nursing-jobs
Just been talking to the nurses union rep I see most often and have been reassured that the 1300 vacancy number is way under the real mark.
The way that Te Whatu Ora 'manages' vacancies is to receive requests for staffing from all over the country. Let's say Ward X here in Palmy has 4 FTE places and an acute department has 3. It is likely that Ward X will get 2 spots acvertised and the other 1. Then Simeon can stand on the podium and claim that all the vacancies are filled.
https://creativeelc.substack.com/p/ombudsman-to-health-nz
Plenty of men have used their secret to become successful but constraints apply.
Don't outshine your master, Grasshopper…
One would hope that they’ve learned some valuable lessons from this multiple failure, e.g., (data) sovereignty, data & systems security & resilience, and will apply this vital knowledge to the trust & confidence they have in AI and who’s in control of that.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/emergencies/793207/civil-defence-website-crash-during-tsunami-alert-due-to-third-party-problems-minister
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361009588/nz-firsts-stuart-nash-makes-sexist-claim-mp-was-lazy-taking-baby-leave
I've only just caught up with the details of this story, I reckon it's absolute filth by finlyson to take a private text public , to attack another party, I watch cross party lines a bit , and tbh the longer I watch the less I think of both of them , and always thought finlyson was one of the good ones ,
National dirty politics is alive and well.
I bet there isn't many left pollies that havn't texted something to a supposed freind that'd be less than ideal.
Btw Nash doesn't belong in government imho.
Anyone who thinks that Finlayson was going to keep an e-mail to him confidential is an idiot. I thought that Nash was smarter than that, but it appears not.
Can't agree bwaghorn.
I enjoy Cross Party Lines because it is not only informative, but both Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson are gentlemen and scholars. Neither of them had anything to do with DP conduct when they were politicians. Here's the link where Finlayson talks about what happened. People can pass their own judgement, but to my mind Stuart Nash brought it on himself:
The lead-up 15 mins. clarifies why the conversation took place. Finlayson revealed Nash's private text around 15 mins 30 sec.
Thanks Anne for giving us Cross Party Lines. I see it goes on for 49m and may force myself to sit through it. but only because as you say Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson have some kudos. But NZ politics is so painful to think about, so bereft of any real wisdom and functionality that I instead keep up with Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart in The Rest is Politics who know what they are talking about. I don't know if any Kiwi pollies actually are grounded like that, most are into the game of politics not the delivery of unstinting, thoughtful service to the country and its workings not just the Party that has been a vehicle for their eruption (like boils or maybe school sores – impetigo – imps-to-go?).
Yes. I watch "The Rest is Politics" too. Fascinating stuff. Goff and Finlayson were/are grounded. One might not agree with the politics, but both sides have their grounded and not so grounded members past and present.
The Rest is Politics picks up excellent interviews with international leaders (eg this fantastic interview with Moldavia's leader Maia Sandu here). However I find their UK coverage just rehashes the political class/media talking points, rather than doing a deep dive. They certainly turn a blind eye to the endemic corruption in UK politics and media.
I don't believe Finlayson played dirty – he operates a public forum which provoked Nash into emailing in response to something Finlayson said publicly so expecting that email to be kept out of the public eye was naive and foolish, imo. Finlayson has a well-honed legal and political mind where most of the dirty-politics crew are lumpen low-brows.
For consideration of the way that pollies play politics this current post by Brian Easton on Pundit is a clear look at the rise and rise of ACT – all about helping the little chap over the pothole and hand under elbow, up the Hill! If only the RW could extend their assistance similarly to all citizens and not disdain those they call the bottom feeders and 'unsorted'!
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/a-populist-act
A Populist ACT by Brian Easton July 24, 2026
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361050106/new-electoral-restrictions-risk-real-damage-our-social-fabric
Finlyson must have know it would torpedo Nash, for all we know Nash had been told that that's how much time the woman in question took off,
Maybe a decent man would have corrected Nash and seen what he said
A decent man would have corrected a decent man.
As I said before, if NZF wanted to keep him, Nash with their support could easily have delivered a heart-felt apology acknowledging he didn't know the full facts.
Gnash’s crime was giving Luxon a leg-up to
laudlord one over Winston, so Gnash had to fall on his dick.Dirk.
But gnashing!
Māui only knows where that leads!