Open mike 22/09/2022

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 35 comments
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35 comments on “Open mike 22/09/2022”

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  1. 1

    "Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia could sustain the fiction of long-term dominance of Central Asia. No longer. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s priority for the military and for kleptocracy, rather than for building a diversified, competitive economy, condemned Russia to a future as a quarry for China and Germany. Now China can manage its convenient neighborhood quarry with minimal competition."

    Putin’s losses in Asia are bigger than in Ukraine | The Hill

    With Germany fully shutting off Russian gas imports, does China gain in Eurasian power?

    1. 1.1

      As an economic powerhouse China has gained more power not only in Eurasia but all around the world.

      It's tacit acceptance of Russia's SMO…which has clearly morphed into 'War' ,is probably the one single reason ….Russia took the action it..has.

      America is rattled by China's military/industrial complex as a dangerous rival to their own…military/financial complex hegemony.

    2. 1.2

      Despite massive repression and threats of 15 year prison sentences protests against 'the partial' mobilization for the war in Ukraine have erupted across Russia.

      ….The protests were the largest since the demonstrations that broke out in Russia after it started its military operation in Ukraine on February 24. As per AFP journalists, …

      https://www.timesnownews.com/world/russia-over-1000-detained-after-protests-erupt-against-putins-announcement-of-partial-mobilisation-of-civilians-in-ukraine-article-94360452#:~:text=The%20protests%20erupted%20against%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20%27s,at%20rallies%20in%2038%20different%20cities%20across%20Russia.

      ……the Moscow prosecutor’s office warned that organizing or participating in such actions could lead to up to 15 years in prison. Authorities issued similar warnings ahead of other protests recently. The state communication watchdog Roskomnadzor also warned media that access to their websites would be blocked for transmitting “false information” about the mobilization. It was unclear exactly what that meant….

      https://www.greeleytribune.com/2022/09/21/putin-orders-partial-military-call-up-risking-protests/

      Popular Russian protest chants:

      ‘Send Putin to the trenches’

      ‘Putin is the enemy of Russia’

      1. 1.2.1

        Everything is going according to plan……

        https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

        The announcement caused prices for some plane tickets out of Moscow to sell out, according to Reuters and Russian media company RBC.

        Flights to countries that still allow Russians to enter without a visa, including Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia, appear to be in high demand.

        Russian state-owned airline Aeroflot has no more flights to Istanbul, Turkey from Moscow for the next three days, according to its website.

        Aeroflot flights to Yerevan, Armenia, from Russia's capital are also sold out until the weekend, its website said.

        https://www.businessinsider.com/plane-tickets-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-declares-mobilization-2022-9?

        1. 1.2.1.1

          European countries should be encouraging this type of flight by opening their borders to fleeing Russians. They would be of more use to Europe outside of Russia than inside.

    3. 1.3

      The Chinese must in turn have been supportive, perturbed, and now aghast by events in the Ukraine. I suspect they believed Putin's confidence that the Ukraine would collapse in a few days, then perturbed at Russia's military failure and now they are probably aghast at the prospect of Putin's nuclear sabre rattling. As long as Putin doesn't go nuclear I guess China's current position is to, to paraphrase Napoleon,

      "…Never interrupt your frenemy when he is making a mistake…"

      Putin is currently reducing Russia to the status of Chinese vassal with the prospect of Chinese hegemony being extended into the Stanislands to China's west to replace Russia. Erdogan clearly sees Putin's grand plan to revive the empire of the Tsars coming bloodily undone in the Ukraine not so much as a warning about the consequences of imperial nostalgia over-reach as an opportunity, and he is busy with his own grand plans to re-invent the Ottoman empire.

      Putin is the real worry though. His descent into late dictator syndrome is terrifying because for the first time since Nazi Germany a major power with a substantial military-industrial complex has embraced fascism under the leadership of someone who is clearly in the thrall of an ideology infused with semi-mystical messianic nihilism.

      Putin is mainly interested in trying to blackmail us all with his nuclear arsenal into abandoning the Ukraine, but all he risks is widening the war and, potentially, bringing about a major power intervention in the Ukraine. Perhaps that is what he secretly wants – a fantasy wish-fufillment of an important, imperial Russia being in a existential conflict with it's peers – rather than the current reality of having a backward, brutal and clumsy army being beaten by the poorest country in Europe.

      1. 1.3.1

        The good thing about President Putin's defeat in Ukraine, is that it will give President Xi pause for thought about ever trying something like that against Taiwan.

      2. 1.3.2

        I'm surprised the role of the U.S is missing from your dissertation…given you described the present conflict as a proxy war between the U.S.A ….and…Russia.

        1. 1.3.2.1

          I think the term "proxy war" isn't accurate with respect to Ukraine.

          An example of a proxy war is the war Russia has been waging between Donbass militants and Ukraine. In this case, Russia had set up its own proxy governance structure, and was effectively waging a war against Ukraine via that structure.

          In the case of Ukraine, Ukraine is receiving aid from a multitude of countries. It is waging a war it would wage anyway. Except, the aid is enabling them to be a lot more effective in that.

            1. 1.3.2.1.1.1

              So, you do you think smaller countries should just roll over and let larger powers come in and take what they want?

              I think if the USA and other Western countries had not been involved, we would probably end up with an insurgency type scenario.

              The Ukrainians would have lost the formal war, but would have continued fighting underground and causing huge problems for the Russians. It would end up as their modern Afghanistan with similar results for them.

              1. 1.3.2.1.1.1.1

                'So, you do you think smaller countries should just roll over and let larger powers come in and take what they want?'

                Historically that's the way imperialism…works.

            2. 1.3.2.1.1.2

              Blazer

              22 September 2022 at 11:05 am

              Take the U.S.A out of the equation and I suggest the conflict…would be over by…lunchtime.

              You can suggest it, but it wouldn't be true. As Vietnam and Afghanistan proved. An insurgent population will keep on fighting for years and even decades until the foreign invader is driven out of their country.

              Blazer I say the opposite to what you suggest; 'US and Western military aid is shortening the war.'

              "The arc of history is long, but it tends towards justice."

              Martin Luther King

              The weapons and technology supplied to the Ukrainians by the West have shortened the long arc of history by years.

            3. 1.3.2.1.1.3

              I think Poland, having also been a victim of Russian butchery, would have stood with Ukraine even were they alone in doing so.

                2. 1.3.2.1.1.3.1.2

                  Poland has been a significant voice supporting Ukraine, putting the perspective of peoples subjugated by the soviet regime to the more complacent western part of NATO. Their position resonates with the Baltic States, and with the democrats exiled by the Belarussian dictator.

                  More traditional leading European powers were slow to recognize what was going on, but, with the benefit of hindsight, now understand that they needed to act against the Putin threat sooner.

                  Poland … is not a military power

                  I'll let you tell them that. Ukraine wasn't one until the bear tried to poke them – they’ve proven to be remarkably resolute.

        2. 1.3.2.2

          Context is important Blazer. So would it hurt you, just for once to provide a link or quote, to show where I described the present conflict as a proxy war.

          "Proxy War" can be overstated.

          If one Superpower sees some advantage for itself, in backing an insurgency against its rival, it will do so. The Vietnam War was termed a proxy war between the US and the USSR because the USSR and East Germany supplied the Vietnamese with armaments to fight the US. Though it may have been an element, Superpower rivalry between the US and the USSR was not the main driving factor driving the Vietnamese to resist American imperialism.
          Just as Superpower rivalry is not what is driving the Ukrainian people to resist Russian imperialism.

            1. 1.3.2.2.1.1

              More like b/s….=' The Vietnam War was termed a proxy war between the US and the USSR because the USSR and East Germany supplied the Vietnamese with armaments to fight the US. '

              Never heard that one.

              The war was supposedly ignited by the U.S to contain the expansion of the evil Communists…they were going to come down and take out Australia and…NZ…believe it…or not!

          2. 1.3.2.2.2

            That reply was to Sanctuary…if you care to look.

            As for…'As Vietnam and Afghanistan proved. An insurgent population will keep on fighting for years and even decades until the foreign invader is driven out of their country.'

            Oh the irony!There's money in Wars..the U.S armaments industry insist on them!Who were Vietnam and Afghanistan…fighting?=hopeless.

            I'm too cynical to suggest the conflicts you mention have anything to do with democracy or humanitarian …ideals.

      3. 1.3.3

        I think the positive thing about the relationship between Russia and China is that the last thing that China will want is nuclear war. It is disastrous for the whole planet, including China, and not good for business either.

        So, I think Putin will be very mindful of his relationship with China in his considerations, even if he is getting increasingly erratic. So, still think the risk of nukes being used is very low.

        1. 1.3.3.1

          Here is Putin's problem: Like the Chinese middle class, the Russian middle class are "out of politics". In exchange for eceonomic growth and a western lifestyle they left Putin to do as he wants politically.

          Now, 300,000 young men who all have families are going to be forced into politics. And that is bad news for Putin, because they do not want tp be dying in the Ukraine.

          1. 1.3.3.1.1

            "….300,000 young men who all have families are going to be forced into politics."

            Sanctuary

            In the immortal words of George Orwell.

            "You may not be interested in politics. But politics is interested in you."

  7. 7

    US fed raised rates 0.75 overnight,3.13 is now higher then all developed economies except Canada.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1572662968437055489?cxt=HHwWgoDRkeaonNMrAAAA

    Lot of downside on stocks as investors move to safe value stocks,as Zombie extinction will be underway with growth stocks falling to fundamentals.

    Balance of trade here with deficit for August of 2.4b$

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/overseas-merchandise-trade-august-2022/

  9. 9

    Putin saying he feels threatened because of NATO is equivalent to ram-raiders saying they feel threatened because jewellery shops decide to employ security guards.

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