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6:00 am, November 20th, 2025 - 36 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
If anyone can remember the doctor bubble+burst of 2000, AI investment vastly distending theater US markets is preparing for another rapid deflation.
Kiwisavers, prepare for another correction.
Argh.
"doctor bubble" or dotcom bubble?
It’d be great if NZ had an increase of doctors!
Perhaps the doctor bubble is announcements without follow-through.
An announcement of a new doctor training college at Waikato – to open in 2028 – does absolutely nothing for the shortages between now and 2032.
"Speculative mania" and "irrational exuberance" – nothing new under the sun 🙁
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/9/2261833/-Cartoon-Sam-Altman-s-AI-bubble-burstin-blowout
don't worry Kim is going to form another political party and we will all be save. Assuming he doesn't go to prison.
Just read "Emily Writes" and she gives a devastating round up of " What the HELL is happening with the new school curriculum?" Terrifying hold NZ Initiative and Atlas has on Education. As for Michael Johnston and Stanford, Hell on earth!
An important read:
https://www.emilywrites.co.nz/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-the-new-school-curriculum/?ref=emily-writes-weekly-newsletter
Thanks for that Ianmac, and to Emily and Josh.
https://thestandard.nz/confusing-confidence-with-competence-erica-stanford-and-the-bulldozing-of-education-reform/
Grrr, them pesky teachers. How National MPs learned to stop worrying and love ACT 🙂
Peters announces new ferry deal – apparently saving billions – happily taking any credit which is going, from the policy.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360891849/winston-peters-reveals-new-ferries-deal-saving-billions-says-consultants-had-hijacked-past-plan
A more critical look here
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360892299/new-interislander-ferries-mega-blowout-managed-pain
The "more critical look" is from Luke Malpass who always, without fail, favours the Right.
Even he has some difficulty supporting the Willis/Peters cock-up.
It looked more critical than the Stuff coverage.
But feel free to post a link from a source that you feel covers the issue from a left perspective.
I think drowsy does a good job below especially:
What was done with the ferries was bad, but it was how it was done that was the real disaster: The new government just coming in, cancelling the ferry deal via text message, wasting hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money, with no workable plan B on hand.
And why? Whatever the driver, it was not in the national interest.
And the ferry saga is but one amongst a whole chain of disasters the new government has caused without second thoughts, no real strategy, and just because they can. Other examples include senselessly ending 3-waters reform, NPS-FM, equal pay legislation, new petrol car RUC, tobacco legislation, medium density housing compromise, Te Pukenga, etc.
What irritates me is the Treasury $4 billion number that is regularly bandied around for Labour's plan. There was never a basis for this. $3.1 billion was the estimate. Also Labour's plan involved (as well as bigger better ferries delivered 3 years earlier) improving and earthquaking the infrastructure at Wellington and Picton for future generations. The COC have simply dumped this work, which means it will be a cost in the future. Meanwhile we are left using the old crappy infrastructure-for instance in Wellington the tent where you pick up your luggage when you arrive from Picton is laughable- third world.
Micky did a good post on this new infrastructure a few months ago.
I don't defend the Treasury estimate (I don't know enough about how it was arrived at – and it was described as 'ballpark').
But the project had a pattern of extremely large cost over-runs – which were hidden from the government of the day (Labour at the time).
I don't have any confidence that the final figure that KR were providing was actually 'final' and that there would be no further cost inflation.
My understanding is that the Picton terminal will be re-built as part of the new project, while the Wellington one will have additional work done. The cost saving comes (I understand) from the fact that the new ferries will fit in the same docking area as the current ones – while the IREX ones had to have entirely new docks made (since they were substantially larger).
You may be right about the change in dock size costs, but I have never seen this costed separately and specifically. I wonder if anybody on TS has figures for this?
I wouldn't have thought that his alone was going to cost, say $1 billion.
And how much of any such cost could be attributed to improving aged berths that were in need of replacement/maintenance anyway?
He gets points for continuing with rail enabled ferries (even the truckies knew the importance of that, if ACT did not).
Factors in the cost savings (obviously dockside for the smaller ship and onshore with less cargo capacity) include the “earthquake standard” settings.
The claim is made here they have the same cargo capacity …
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360891902/replacing-cook-strait-ferries-cost-186b
From your link:
Not sure where you're seeing that the cargo capacity is the same?
That is compared to the old ones.
So the new ferries, will be smaller and cheaper than the cancelled IREX, but have the same cargo capacity?
Not sure where you're seeing that the new ferries will be cheaper.
Winston First might prefer ‘less expensive’ 😉
Just as important, given current capacity, is whether they will be any sooner. Some interesting comments about Mapass’ article:
I was asking the question (that’s what a question mark is for) – to clarify the comment from SPC. Note, he answered, below.
However, I’m now free, and have been able to do a bit of investigation on my own behalf.
Estimates for the IREX ferries + associated port infrastructure = 3 billion (and climbing) at the time the project was cancelled. Treasury forecast was for approaching 4 billion.
Cost of the new ferries (and associated infrastructure) = $1.86 billion + 671 million for breaking the previous deal.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/11/19/govt-reveals-costs-of-its-new-cook-strait-ferries/
But, feel free to provide your own cost breakdown.
You have a much greater optimism about the ability to deliver on time (let alone within budget) for the original project, than I do.
We may well have been in the scenario where we had ferries, but nowhere to berth them….. Like Tasmania.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-24/spirit-of-tasmania-ferries-to-be-leased-as-port-not-finished/104510896
Please free free to consider the possibility that my "much greater optimism" is all in your head 🙂
I do recall you harping on about what the opposition’s plan was to deal with the fallout of the finance minister’s carefully crafted decision to cancel iReX, while studiously avoiding any questions about the CoC’s plan B. And two years later, here we are.
Nope. You're the one optimistically claiming that:
And, yes, here we are: With a plan to delivery the same outcomes (ferries, plus infrastructure) at significantly less cost.
I do note, that Labour still haven't come up with a viable plan for what they would have done if they'd been re-elected in 2023. Or, what they plan to do if elected in 2026. Lost in the policy black hole, no doubt.
This is, without at doubt, a political win for Peters.
Why attribute this comment, one of several I copied from comments at the end of the Malpass article you linked to @3, to me? Bizarre B.
As I noted at the time, Labour had a plan, and Willis torpedoed it.
Suggest you work on the layout to your comments.
If that was a quote from Malpass' article – then you should have attributed it.
Your words "Some interesting comments about Mapass’ article" -[my italics.]
The word 'about' means that it is someone else's commentary on what Malpass wrote. And, given that no one else was attributed, it is entirely valid to believe that these were your words.
Did you not have anything to say yourself? Or do you think that large volume copy/pasta is a substitute for debate?
Do feel free to link to your comment at the time, outlining Labour's plan to deal with the IREX cost blow out. And cartoons, while entertaining, are not policy announcements.
However, Hipkins appears not to be a supporter of the original project:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/556802/bare-faced-lie-to-blame-me-for-ferry-saga-winston-peters
Peters, of course, says that Hipkins is lying. However, absent records of the cabinet discussions, we'll never know who is telling the truth.
You were so close B. You could have skimmed the comments under the Malpass article that you linked to @3, to dispel your "entirely valid" belief, but chose not to 🙁
More excerpts from comments under Malpass' article – just a taste 🙂
Yes, cartoons can be entertaining, and much more. This one’s a beaut.
Still waiting for your opinion – rather than the copious copy/pasta.
That Slane cartoon is a beaut, imho. This one's not too shabby either 🙂
And this one, worth a 1000 words. I’m no fan of Winston 1st or the CoC.
It was a $3B project.
The new one is a $1.9B one with $600M in sunk costs.
Treasury's forecast cost escalation was an invention to force a re-think by the 2023 government.
China has smaller sized ships with the same cargo capacity allowing cheaper onshore cost development.
This makes the move from IREX seem a positive (it would not have been had ACT got their way.
It has ended up well, barring the problem going forward for KiwiRail between now and 2029.
The owner of BlueRidge wants to sell for a $B (paid $500M a few years ago, the seller then made money to). There was money to be made because of KiwiRails limited capacity. There will be good profit between now and 2029 for any new buyer.
The would be seller realises KiwiRail will compete better after 2029.
smaller than, with the same capacity due to
The IREX ferries were cheaper, but required more onshore cost.
And so it begins.
NZF would support removing the “RSB” after 2026.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360893451/coalition-chaos-david-seymour-says-winston-peters-getting-ready-go-labour
$100B of assets that could be sold the government said
$14B (51% shareholding) in 3 power companies.
National wants to look at capital raising to support new projects as shareholding partner to the 3 companies.
ACT wants a sell-down, NZF wants a buy back.
Hydra-in-hydro-tangle.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360891072/what-could-government-actually-sell-treasury-puts-100b-figure-under-spotlight
It is a shambles.
Anyone else smell a rat when the McSkimming scandal broke last week? I did. It seemed unthinkable that the top cops were complicit in a cover up on behalf of McSkimming. To quote the current Police Commissioner “they were guilty of group-think”.
Well, the truth is starting to emerge, at least in the case of former Deputy Commissioner, Tania Kura and I am unsurprised she was targeted. It would not surprise me if former Commissioner, Andrew Coster also has extenuating circumstances to his credit.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tania-kura-resignation-followed-police-commissioners-criticism-after-mcskimming-welfare-visit/TH76HJ7DPRCQFCVAI2ZZDC6ZGI/
Since the article is paywalled, a brief explanation:
Tania Kura visited the McSkimming home because she had been requested to do so by McSkimming’s wife who was in a distraught state. The visit was strictly as a welfare check only, which is something all senior staff do, regardless of the circumstance.
The source I presume will have been a police source.
My view:
She has been scapegoated. They needed someone to take the blame for a monumental cock-up which had its origins long before she (or Andrew Coster) took over the top police jobs. That becomes clear in the body of the article.
It was a politically motivated hatchet job using the previous incumbents as the supposed culprits and/or a case of “group think” on the part of the present incumbents – not their predecessors.
Your perspective is entirely at odds with the damning report by the IPCA.
There is zero doubt, from all of the information presented to date, that there was a systematic attempt to cover up McSkimming's history in relation to the Ms Z complaints – by Coster, Kura and other senior police.
At the time, none of these senior people involved knew about the illegal child porn and bestiality images, for which he's subsequently been convicted.
However, they all knew that there was a 'situation' of some kind which involved Ms Z – and *uncritically* accepted McSkimming's word of the nature of this. And then, proceeded to hide this information from anyone – because it might have impacted on his promotion prospects.
The ICPA is not as damning of Kura as it is of Coster. But it is still highly critical of a senior police officer, who failed to either verify the information that she was given, or refer the matter to the ICPA.
https://www.ipca.govt.nz/download/169325/11%20November%202025%20-%20IPCA%20Public%20Report%20-%20Review%20of%20Police%20handling%20of%20complaints%20against%20Jevon%20McSkimming.pdf
The fact that Kura has a supporter, who is leaking material to the media – doesn't change this in any way.
She isn't being condemned for visiting McSkimming (although, it's been pointed out, that she was not the officer tasked with his welfare, and such a visit could be …. unwise … considering that he was under active investigation for possession of illegal porn.)
I don't think that she was the prime mover in any of this cover-up situation. However, she was deeply unprofessional in her approach – especially considering her role was precisely to deal with Police Conduct and Integrity.
I see your perspective is at odds with the article I linked to. Pot calling the kettle black?
Oh a nice bit of mischievous interpretation there B. It is clear she has plenty of support from what are highly likely former colleagues in the Police Force. People who know Tania Kura. They are upset and angry at the way she has been painted. And by the looks of it rightly so.
I might add, I believe the young woman at the heart of this story was treated in the most abysmal way imaginable, but I suspect the real culprits are not the ones currently being charged with the misconduct, IPCA report notwithstanding. They do not always get everything right.
My perspective is informed by a comprehensive investigation carried out over several months by IPCA; yours is informed by a piece of clickbait journalism quoting an unnamed source – who, incidentally, fails to address the reasons that the IPCA slated home responsibility to Kura.
The fact is, that the senior ranks of the police have been shown to place consideration for their colleagues above their sworn responsibilities. That is precisely what Coster and Kura did. I'm not surprised that the 'old boys network' is rallying around them. Of course she has friends in the police. I'm sure there's been a whole lot of back scratching going on over the years.
Kura at the very best, in the IPCA report, was deeply unprofessional. Aside from Coster himself, she is the person who's *job* it was to investigate (seriously) and report the complaints about McSkimming to the IPCA. She utterly failed to do this.
I fail to see why you think that she deserves support.
Who, in your interpretation does deserve to carry the can for the cover up of McSkimming?