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- Date published:
12:35 pm, March 26th, 2026 - 20 comments
Categories: 2026 oil crisis, Economy, energy, Iran, us politics -
Tags: diesel, israel, MBIE, planning, rationing
It was interesting this morning to read Richard Harmon’s lead on Politick “What aren’t we being told about fuel supplies?” (paywalled).
Essentially there was a private webinar briefing for top business CEOs on the fuel crisis by MBIE, the PM’s office, and MFAT officials. Media were excluded, which seems to both be silly, and guaranteed to annoy media and those who read them. Plus it distinctly looks like tipping the table for the special citizens and organisations. One has to wonder what the ‘donations’ required to get that kind of access cost.
Anyway, most of Harmon’s article is about the levels of dispute about what the actual fuel supply line looks like. MBIE, yesterday, said that while there are only two tankers scheduled to arrive over the next few weeks, that “Fuel companies have told us that there are a healthy number of ships on water or planned for later in April.” 1.
Harmon points to NZOilWatch, run by a BNZ Financial Markets project manager who has been tracking public data, and who is pointing to the problem with diesel supplies.
NZOilWatch says that the 18-day figure is now down to 15 days and that there are only confirmed supplies for seven days on the water.
MBIE says last Sunday, New Zealand had enough diesel to cover 18 days consumption, but that there was another 28 days supply on the water.
NZOilWatch are primarily looking at AIS data2 on vessels which identifies the vessel, its type, speed, position, and a multitude of other details like destination port and origin port.
NZ mostly gets our refined fuel from refineries in South Korea and Singapore, and these vessels typically come direct from there to NZ (I did a little historic back-checking). Like Harmon, that makes me wonder where in the hell MBIE is getting their confidence from.
As Harmon rather acidly noted..
It is, therefore, little wonder that MBIE didn’t want media at its briefing.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister yesterday gave a clear hint that the Government is worried and is moving towards implementing Level Two of the National Fuel Plan, which allows for fuel rationing and, at worst, the declaration of a state of emergency.
Apparently the current PM, Chris Luxon, waffled an answer in parliament yesterday with the only precise information being that the government would provide more information on Friday.
When presumably we’d be down to about 11 to 12 days of diesel. Even worse, we will be down to virtually no diesel if the only known incoming shipment arrives on its current late date of the 5th April. And it is only carrying a 7.2 days of diesel at average rates of usage
I hardly need to point out the issue of what happens in the economy if we run out of diesel.
It has been obvious that the Israeli led attack against Iran (and in my view, against the rest of the world) was completely stupid because of its stated miscalculated objectives. It was likely to led to long war. Also a prolonged disruption to supply, because of the justifiable use by Iran use of asymmetric warfare against those who explicitly or implicitly supported those attacks. Especially the Gulf states allowing basing of USA forces and overflights of attacks.
The government and especially MBIE should have been aware of those risks and planned for them rather than drifting like a rudderless tanker near to a seashore.
Personally I’d have been grounding all SUVs and Remuera tractors (ie non-productive Ford Rangers and the like) weeks ago. We need the diesel that they consume for transport for the productive parts of the economy like moving exports to ports and airfields and food and goods to industries and consumers.
This is crucial now that that this short-term thinking government chose to cripple rail freight going between the islands and up and down the rail system.
But most of all, I’d be looking at a shake up in MBIE. Their lack of a commitment to fostering the economy is manifested in their lack of clear information on their site about the crucial economic input of fuel.
How different was it a week ago? How many ships have left port for here in the past month? Isn't the issue not so much what is here and on the water, but how much is coming (or not coming) after that?
Hard agree about rationing now. This is an insane gamble.
Have a look at the nzoilwatch.com site – it shows what MBIE says about ships v what is actually known and confirmed, compared to the usual case. It looks to me like MBIE is being overly optimistic.
We are already getting reports of diesel getting siphoned out of our construction vehicles. On-site security is already a serious issue across all our work sites.
do you think that's a financial thing, or people stockpiling cheaply? Both?
It will be contractor treadies, trying to work.
There will be a lot of that. Farmers often get hit by that and they absolutely hate it. Happened on one farm that I was working at in 1977.
Our school bus depot is reporting losses.
Have to love this level of transparency… @1454 on RNZ "More fuel shipments enroute than previously reported"
I'd point out several things.
But hey, there may be someone who believes it. Makes me long for the Covid daily standups..
Looks like it was MBIE. Stuff has more info "Where is the fuel? Ministry releases new information about fuel ships" @1434
What is of interest is that the word 'each' is missing on those last two points. That sounds like a combined value
Lets assume that it is a combined amount arriving on April 5th and April 12th and it is worded this way for PR effect, and look at what happens.
So in 3 days we get a tanker with 4.2 days of diesel, 7 days later with 7.2 days diesel, and 7 days after that we get 5.4 days of diesel.
So over the next 17 days we have 16.8 days of diesel arriving. Tight. Doesn't exactly help to build stocks.
That is a problem when it it is likely that every farmer and trucking business will be filling up everything that they have to beat prices rises. So the 'average usage' is going to be irrelevant.
The petrol looks worse on the forward view. Over that same 17 days, only 4.3 days at average usage of petrol will arrive.
Looks like we will wind up with stockpile of jet fuel…
More information, badly worded, just makes me more worried.
My only reference is "Cabin Pressure" but can jet fuel be used in diesel or car engines?
(And if you want a happy diversion, then you can find the radio show on youtube.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S01E04 "Douz"
ARTHUR: What, you can run a car on aviation fuel?
DOUGLAS: Oh, yes! It's a bit like giving a bunny rabbit cheetah food, but it doesn't half make it go.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It may be able to be in petrol cars. It is effectively a grade of 'kerosene'. Unlikely to be good for the engine, probably have significantly worse performance..
https://www.quora.com/Can-you-use-jet-fuel-aviation-gasoline-in-your-car-or-is-it-too-different-from-regular-gas
In diesel engines I'd expect it to be a non-starter and possibly actively dangerous to the engine.
https://nationalcarparts.co.nz/blog/petrol-in-a-diesel-car/
Kerosene, jet fuel, is closer to diesal in flash point, and there are vehicles that can use either, interchangeably. I wouldn't put either in my petrol car.
Av gas is high octane petrol.
From many years ago my memory tells me.
There are basically two different types of aviation fuels. There is avtur, used in jet engines, and avgas which is used by light piston engines. As you say avtur is a like kerosene. You should be able to use it in an older diesel engine for a short time. It doesn't have the lubricating properties of diesel though so the engine would wear badly. It wouldn't be usable in a modern diesel engine. It is not an alternative to motor spirit in an ICE.
Avgas is a very high octane version of petrol. You cannot use it in a modern car engine though as it is a leaded fuel and modern car engines really don't like it. The lead additive is to raise the octane rating. You would need a car from the 1970's or earlier which was built to use leaded fuels.
You could probably use it in your classic 1965 Mustang though if you can afford it. You'd probably be breaking the law of course as you wouldn't have paid the motor spirit duty
Matt Nippett at the Herald has "Iran war: What six incoming oil tankers mean for New Zealand’s fuel supply" @1700
Probably useful, but it is paywalled so I can't read it. I dumped my subscription to the Herald years ago because:-
NZME absolutely sucked at getting it back – so I dumped the sub entirely. Didn't help that I was made redundant just before then, and them doing that caused a electricity payment to fail.
At 1629 1 News had "Govt releases unscheduled fuel update after diesel concerns"
This clarifies some stupidity at MBIE.
Makes a hell of difference. From the Stuff article
So there is an additional 11.6 days of diesel already local to NZ. With the 15 and a bit days already in tanks, that means we have about 27 days at average usage within our country and local waters.
I think that MBIE would be wise to start a new category "Arrived but not offloaded" in their twice weekly fuel report.
Perhaps the government should suggest this to them /sarc
Paywalled?
Evidently, archive.ph is useful…
Thanks for espousing thoughts of mine too in this piece – very obvious this government is woefully unprepared and believes "head in sand" equates to national policy and governance
What this all says to me is that even in the best of times, our fuel supply for the country is actually quite fragile. If a few ships got delayed for any reason, we would be in a serious situation very quickly.
It seems to me that we should be upping our fuel reserves considerably. Maybe double what they are now. Especially for diesel since the economy would grind to a halt without it.
These are my ideas…
Working from home should be implemented where possible to save public transport and fuel. Public transport should be reduced by half and electric buses used in preference.
The bus drivers not working should do a night shift on electric buses doing deliveries to supermarkets and health facilities (and any other places of national importance).
Personal electric cars should be rented from owners for vital transport needs e.g. public heath nurse visits and small deliveries e.g. pharmacy.
So here's the trigger mechanisms for shortages, announced this morning:
Live: Details of NZ's fuel plan unveiled by Government amid Iran war uncertainty | Stuff
I don't see any diplomatic offroad for this for either USA or Iran, and a big gathering of Marines and carrier groups.
So the likelihood is a ground war and a full block of the Strait of Hormuz and high risk to the Red Sea route.
Here we go 1979 …