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12:25 pm, November 26th, 2025 - 30 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, national, same old national -
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Christopher Luxon’s stint as Prime Minister is under serious threat.
Clearly he has not been able to control Winston Peters and David Seymour and the internecine war that erupted between the two is causing serious damage to the Government.
It does not help that Luxon is so crap at his job.
And yesterday dished up a classic example showing how bad he is.
His latest misspeak is to express no concern for National MPs that will lose their jobs on current polling. This will go down well with those fretting that their careers
From Craig McCulloch at Radio New Zealand:
Asked whether he would step down if National sunk below a certain level in the polls, Luxon said that was “not a concern”.
He said he did not hold any concerns for those National MPs who would lose their jobs on current polling: “No.”
Luxon’s office then had to issue a clarification that he meant that he thought all current MPs would be returned and that he was answering a hypothetical question. The ingenuity of his media advisors is impressive.
The context is that the Wellington rumour mill is in overdrive suggesting that a coup is underway. And Chris Bishop’s name is at the top of the list.
But he has pledged full support for beloved leader Christopher Luxon.
Again from Radio New Zealand:
Senior National MP and minister Chris Bishop has categorically denied plotting a leadership challenge, insisting that Christopher Luxon remains the best person to be prime minister.
Speculation surrounding the prospect of a coup has intensified in the past week given dissatisfaction within the National caucus after a series of worrying polls.
Addressing reporters at Parliament on Tuesday, Bishop said he was “definitely not” planning to roll Luxon as leader and dismissed the commentary as people “interviewing their typewriters”.
Asked if he could give a firm commitment that Luxon would remain prime minister through to the election, Bishop responded simply: “yes”.
Bishop was asked several times whether Luxon was the best person for the top job, to which he said Luxon was “fantastic” and “outstanding”.
He eventually responded directly: “Correct… absolutely, he’s doing a wonderful job as prime minister.”
“We’re in difficult economic times, as I think everybody knows, and this is the first time we’ve had a three-way coalition Cabinet in New Zealand history,” Bishop said.
“That produces its own challenges and trials and tribulations. But he’s doing an excellent job leading a government that is… firmly focused on long term structural reform to drive higher living standards.”
Meanwhile National’s polling looks bleak. The latest Curia poll had their support at 30.2%. SUstained polling below 30% will have be a psychological blow to the National Party caucus.
The next few polls will be interesting. And will show if Bishop’s clear denial was accurate or not.
The problem for Bish is it is difficult to explain rolling a PM when many polls still show the coalition scrapping back into power. If he could say "we are facing certain defeat at the next election" it sounds a lot better than "we're not doing overly well in the polls". Luxon will also be enormously bitter if the chuck him out.
For a short time, maybe. But once all those directorships and speaking engagements start to roll in (and of course the sirhood), the bitterness will very soon dissipate. I'd advise though against the memoirs (inevitably titled "What I Would Say To You"). Sales might prove to be embarrassingly low.
"Luxon will also be enormously bitter if they chuck him out."
Well, that's right, as everyone's so acutely aware, hell hath no fury than a bitter Luxon scorned.
Unlikely given the more positive economic outlook.
14 Nov 2025 – “Needs a push” – what I would say to you is 'Who needs a push?' 🙂 🙂 🙂
Still, cling-on CLux wants a knighthood – for services to the sorted, not ‘bottom feeders’.
“We’re in difficult economic times, as I think everybody knows,,," – Chris Bishop.
"More positive economic outlook".
Because this Coalition of Cockups (Petulant children) will be replaced by actual adults, next year.
I don't think anyone is seriously looking to roll Luxon. Based on a solid economic uptick, current polling and the deep schism within the Maori Party my pick is the same coalition will be re elected.
Unless:
The cost-of-living crisis has been a chronic event that New Zealanders have to endure and has been handled poorly by the Coalition – they even prolonged & exacerbated it – as is evident in public perception.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/579035/government-performance-rating-hits-new-low-in-survey
By your logic, Luxon will be rolled before the election; early next year is my guess.
I forgot one thing. It is possible that either Nat or Lab could deliver a killer policy.
But whatever happens we know that both major parties will be pro-market, pro-business. and pro-globalisation.
Because both parties understand that without a strong economy, everything that people say they want in terms of healthcare, education, infrastructure, reduced cost of living and increased income will not be possible.
They have already lost.
Depending on the RB cutting the OCR way below UK, Oz, USA and Canada for Keynesian economic balance is not a sign of competence.
Only a 1990's like movement across the Tasman prevents a rental affordability crisis alongside rising homelessness.
NACT seems to expect lower mortgage cost, business sponsor booster talk and a lot of money and resources to get them a voter mandate.
After three stupid government years? The performance ratings are becoming entrenched in the negative.
NZF has never had a two term period in government. If they get it, it will be their last. They might survive otherwise, now they been broken into a threeway.
Agree but National has and that is significant.
Labour's electoral fate may already be decided by forces outside their control – their potential support partners.
Maori voters may well turn to Winston. They have done so before
In 1996, he ran as part of the opposition. After he chose coalition with National, which Maori electorate seats have been won by NZF since?
The opposition for Winston this year is Labour and the Greens. And to an extent National and Act as he seeks to differentiate NZ First.
NZF have not won any Maori seats since 1996 because of their policy to abolish them. But people have short memories – and say he persuades three current Maori Party MP's to stand for NZF and offers outrageous bribes to the electorate- who knows? Especially if he is the bottomline kingmaker one more time.
A “killer policy”? National already has one: they took the voting rights away.
That’s a rhetorical opening gambit used by politicians trained by PR people, usually followed by biased waffle masquerading as ‘common sense’, as is the case here.
Ditto, with a little of TINA for good emphasis.
Does your CV state that you’re a RW stooge?
I've never had a CV but lets leave the name calling out and address the politics.
If the Maori Party disintegrates and its votes are distributed between the remaining parties I think it is more likely that Winston will scoop them up rather than the Greens.
Why would the Māori seats, that have been Labour, and laterly TPM, go with Peters?
Nicky No Boat's economic chops are legendary, but how 'solid' (or phantasmal) is this 'economic uptick' – enough to alleviate the costcof living crisis & slow the Oz exodus?
Seventh heaven in 27 🙂
Almost feel we want luxon to continue even if the economy does pick up. Is he at the point now where the phone to the nz voter is off the hook and no matter what happens, within reason, he will turn people off?
I smell sausages on the barbie.
No sausages here. Just chickens.
https://www.facebook.com/pmjohnkey/photos/bronagh-and-i-were-on-the-bbq-tonight-as-we-welcomed-the-start-of-the-parliament/10153881300315429/
or large steaks. ('regal' BTW is an anagram of 'large'- fitting for the occasion)
https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/33204/barbecue-at-premier-house
Bishop is a heap more competent than Luxon, and harnesses massive complementary portfolios.
If he's smart he'll remain the Joyce-type fixer.
Best to let the election do the political work.
To me, the bigger question is not whether Luxon is way past his sell-by date, it's who would want the problem of turning this mess around, when all you have to do is wait for Luxon to be flushed down the drain at the next election, then step up as the white knight to rescue the party from its apocalypse.
I'd also question whether Bishop is significantly more likeable than Luxton.
Now, that's not necessarily a barrier – National appointed Collins as a leader 🙂
But, I'd think that that would be a significant weighting factor.
If Luxton is seen as personally unlikable, and that's the reason for ditching him – then the replacement has to be a lot better. I'd be looking at Stanford for more popular appeal (yes, yes, I know the Left hate her – but the Left hate all National MPs)
If there is to be a policy change – not just electorate feelz – then the knives may well be out.
Not dissing Stanford, but the Right's female leaders have been electorally unlucky.
Still, there's always a (New Zealand) First time 🙂
Yep. Perhaps it's the reverse of the Labour party – where male leaders seem to be extraordinary unlucky: Hipkins, Little, Parker, Cunliffe, Shearer, Goff, Moore, Palmer). Even excepting the ones who never made it to PM, it's not a comforting list.
Yep, not dissing Hipkins, but the last male to lead the Left to electoral victory was Lange – in 1987! A general election with a male Lefty leader and a female Righty leader would be an interesting first for Aotearoa NZ, and your pick (@8.1) of Stanford as a better replacement (than Bishop) for Luxon may be on the money.
Louisa Wall has an idea with merit.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/360899189/future-maori-politics-must-lie-iwi-not-parties
The current strife has its roots in political party structure being an ill fit with the way Māori do things. Her idea would have TPM close down and Iwi in each Māori electorate choose an Independent candidate to endorse – the incumbents would be eligible. Iwi endorsement would be a near-guarantee of election.
Seven Independents answerable to their Iwi and through them to the people. Much more democratic than the present system and probably a voting majority. No Party hierarchy to fight over. A marae is an enormously better place to resolve dissension and hurt feelings than a caucus room. Just a loose association between Independent MP's with maybe a dozen policy positions in common. Any governing Party would have to consult with all of them (and have Iwi agreement) for a voting majority on every Bill.
Select Committee structure would need some major changes, probably for the better.
Well, it's interesting.
But how does it play with urban Maori – who may well be (and often are) remote from their iwi? Are they encouraged to move to, or remain on, the general roll?
From a Western perspective, enshrining iwi 'ownership' of a seat in parliament doesn't work for me. Too reminiscent of the bad days of the 19th century rotten boroughs. But I'm not the target audience. And, TBF, the numbers in parliament are not likely to be significant.