Election Night 2020

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 190 comments
Categories: election 2020 - Tags:

This post for general discussion about election results. There are also posts on Key Electorates, and Natwatch.

Electoral Commission Election Results

Preliminary General Election results will be available here progressively from 7.00pm on election night.

Targets for release of the preliminary General Election results are:

  • 10:00pm results from 50% of voting places
  • 11:30pm results from 95% of voting places

Referendum votes will not be counted on election night. Preliminary results for the referendums will be available on Friday 30 October 2020.

The Electoral Commission will have the official results for the 2020 General Election and referendums published here on Friday 6 November 2020.

What about advance votes? Newsroom,

As of Thursday, 1.74 million advance votes had been filed – two-thirds of the total 2017 vote count. That number is likely to rise by about 100,000 once results for Friday are added in. While these votes can’t be counted before election day, they aren’t restricted by the same rules as regular ballots and counting for them can begin at 9am on Saturday, October 17. Last election, the Electoral Commission hoped to have all advance votes counted by 8.30pm but it hasn’t set a goal for itself this time – perhaps due to the large number of advance votes.

Māori TV

RNZ and RNZ on youtube

The Spinoff

The Spinoff’s guide to watching election night (and the morning after)

The Spinoff’s Election night drinking game/Bingo

Newsroom

TVNZ (Barry, Campbell and Dallow) and TVNZ on youtube

TVNZ results page.

Twitter:

#NZElection2020 and #nzpol

#NZhellhole

190 comments on “Election Night 2020”

Comment numbers have changed to permanent references. Older quoted numbers may no longer identify the same comment.

  2. 2

    Over-excited TV people after 1% of the vote. It means nothing (New Conservatives were ahead in one electorate, with a dozen votes somewhere! Means nothing yet).

    1. 3.1

      Yep looks like Nick Smith is Toast! Given the early returns are usually small booths favouring Nats then this could be a decent blow out

        1. 4.2.1.1

          Eventually there will be reports published of split voting statistics for each electorate. They're usually on the electionresults.govt.nz webpage, but I can't show you a sample from a previous election right now because everything just goes straight to current live results and I haven't yet found a way around that.

  9. 9

    Seems fitting to leave my first comment tonight, after 3+ years of being a quiet yet avid reader of the standard. A very big thank you to you all (OK most) for your time in sharing your perspectives, concerns & humour* – it has cemented my unexpected interest in politics (and the well being of Aotearoa). Refreshing, after growing up & leaving a National stronghold, and belonging to a beloved family of blue sheep. Thank you.

    *tried to word this in the least patronising way possible.

  15. 15

    Don't want to spruik the opposition, but it is quite enjoyable glancing at kiwiblog tonight… Got to gloat sometimes

  16. 16

    Brownlee looking like not getting back in Ilam.

    Looks like the electorate is doing the pruning for the Nats that they desperately need.

    1. 16.1

      Gerry conceded to Sarah Pallett late in the evening. Such a wonderful moment! The traditionally blue Ilam is now red (and we swept the party vote too!)

  18. 18

    One enjoyable outcome is going to be the Nats (list or electorate) sweating on specials from a "safe" seat. They'll probably survive, but they wouldn't have been expecting to have such a nervous fortnight.

    So National can't pick a new leader, they won't know who's in the caucus!

  19. 19

    Blimey ! …. Labour blitzing Nats by 9 points (Party-Vote) in True Blue Taranaki-King Country

    Lab + Green currently more than 600 Party-Votes ahead of Nat + ACT in this Blue as a New Tattoo Seat.

    Dairy farmers have gone Hippie … All Peace & Love.

    2. 19.2

      Same thing in Southland, Labour leading party vote by 11 points with 30% counted.

      And same margin for Lab + Grn vs Nat + Act

      Strange days indeed.

  24. 24

    .
    You've all relentlessly been taking the piss out of Judith … & now she's thoroughly redeemed herself … I hope you'll all be eating humble pie.

    1. 24.1

      I'm wondering if she's going to try and persuade the National Party caucus that 35 seats is really 35% of the vote.

  25. 25

    Am I less of a person for laughing loudly as I see rural communities shift red.

    Is it schadenfreude or a lack of moral character that made me snort my tea when Nikki Kaye got interrupted "sorry Nikki there's a lot going on right now" and they switch to Clarke with a tray of snacks.

    Hahahahaha!

    2. 26.2

      Especially after reading a petulant comment from Farrar about how they always under perform their polling.

      I am loving that the Dirty Politics crowd finally got the leader they wanted … and they've been steamrollered by the politician Collins used to sneeringly refer to as 'My Little Pony.'

      2. 26.2.2

        That notion of Green under-performance is part Myth / part Kernel of Truth.

        The Greens do usually underperform on their (temporarily inflated) Poll ratings during the final 3 weeks of the Election Campaign … but more often than not they do a little better than their poll ratings 3, 4 , 5. 6 months out from the Election.

        1. 26.2.2.1

          It was the petulance of Farrar's comment on Kiwiblog that struck me. He obviously knew that National were going to get a hiding. A confident commentator boosting for a big party isn't going to waste his time in childish snarks at the Greens.

      3. 26.2.3

        I am loving that the Dirty Politics crowd finally got the leader they wanted … and they've been steamrollered by the politician Collins used to sneeringly refer to as 'My Little Pony.'

        Yes. So much rubbish has been squashed tonight. Judith so tough, a fighter, a winner, just give her the chance, blah blah … as seen in a hundred columns in the past decade.

        She and her A-team (Hamish Price?) are killing the careers of countless National MPs.

  27. 27

    From stuff: "We've had word that National leader Judith Collins will hold a speech at around 9pm but will not be holding a press conference afterwards."

    Wahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  29. 29

    Labour leads National in every electorate except for Papakura. Dreadful.

    OK currently Nats lead in Epsom too. So 2 electorates at this stage.

      2. 31.1.2

        I think Mr Tamaki is short a pointy hat and a papal pat on the back for that title, I meant the larrikin from Hutt South.

          1. 31.2.1.1.1

            Strong surge at the end sees Ginny Andersen pretty much home against Chris Bishop with a margin of over 1800 with 95% of the votes in.

  33. 33

    Worth noting that Mark Mitchell – if he is the next Nat leader – is very linked to Simon Lusk, Cameron Slater and the Dirty Politics crowd. They got him into politics. He owes them, they own him. Swapping like for like.

  34. 34

    National typically loses 1% after specials and with such a landslide result likely more this time. So National could well end up with 23% or so.

  35. 35

    What I'm especially enjoying….

    See ya later Nick Smith

    Barbara clenching her buttocks in Taranaki

    Ilam!!! Gerry losing his seat would be the icing on the cake

  36. 36

    Reti in trouble …

    "With about 20 per cent of the vote counted in Whangārei, Labour's Emily Henderson is ahead of National's Shane 'Dr Shane' Reti by about 600 votes. It's not a huge lead so far – but it's already a massive turnaround from 2017, when Reti garnered 18,734 votes to Labour's 7,767."

  38. 38

    James Shaw commenting that the Green Party is the first NZ support party to improve their number of MPs after being in government.
    I guess they did their jobs.

  39. 39
    • This is better than expected.

    very pleased for the Greens. Overjoyed for my team, team labour. Labour worked so very hard for us to make this the best country to be living in in this ghastly pandemic.

    Jacinda Ardern greatest leader in the world. Ever

      1. 40.1.1

        Some of that support is likely to be Labour voters ensuring the Greens are there as a coalition option. I think they need to be careful about assuming it is all direct support.

        1. 40.1.1.1

          That is should Labour decide to have a partner when not needed. 50+% with 3-6% wasted all you need is 47% to govern alone. It's not 2008 when National swallowed a few rats to keep Act happy – even though they may have agreed (reluctantly ) to some of Acts policies unofficially. Then chuck in perhaps 1 Māori seat

          1. 40.1.1.1.1

            Definitely agree. But pre-election polling had Labour less than 50% so it was highly possible they would need a partner. I know Labour people who voted strategically for the Greens and even on these forums people were saying that they were going to do that.

            I would hope that even if the final result they could govern alone that they would still form a coalition. You may need friends later on – particularly as New Zealand's demographics continue to change.

            The baby boomers are starting to reduce and will have less influence each election from now on.

        2. 40.1.1.2

          "Some of that support is likely to be Labour voters ensuring the Greens are there as a coalition option. I think they need to be careful about assuming it is all direct support."

          Or, it's the GP voters that went to Lab in 2017 and have now gone back to the Greens.

          1. 40.1.1.2.1

            Probably some of that as well.

            I continued to vote Green myself as I have for a while now – both on conservation and welfare but as I mentioned above I know long time Labour voters who voted strategically for the Greens following their low polling knowing that it was possible Labour might need a coalition partner..

  41. 41

    .

    Unless things change dramatically (highly unlikely) looks like it's gonna be a bad night for Colmar Brunton & Reid Research too.

    Final Polls

    …………. Lab ….. Nat

    CB ……. 46.0 … 31.0

    RR ……. 45.8 …. 31.1

    UMR …. 50.0 …. 29.0

    RM ……. 47.5 …. 28.5

    Current Results

    Lab … 50.3 …. Nat …. 26.0

    Labour's Pollster looking better than the others.

    1. 41.1

      Now we know for certain why those internal polls were never shared with National Party caucus, they were more accurate 😉

      1. 41.2.1

        The farmers swinging to ACT … The Townies swinging to Labour, I'll be bound.

        Easy to overestimate the % of Farmers in Rural Seats … always far more townies than a lot of pundits realise.

  42. 42

    Looks like the Nats may have suffered a somewhat milder version of 2002's last minute Death Spiral … except this time the swing was to Labour rather than NZF, UF, ACT.

    (Most Nat-to-ACT swingers had obviously already decided weeks ago … I'm speculating that the last minute swing from pragmatic Nats was to Labour … with a view to either keeping the Greens out of Govt or, at the very least, disempowering them in Govt).

  44. 44

    Clicking around the channels and so far every Nat talking head (MP or ex) is sticking to the same tired line … it was the PM's free media coverage, it was so unfair, wah wah.

    As opposed to all National's free media coverage thanks to Boag, Walker, Woodhouse, Falloon, Collins, Brownlee, Muller, Bridges … and every other fuck-up. Because Jacinda made them do it?

    They can stay in denial as long as they want. Idiots.

    1. 44.1

      Agree there Observer, pissed off with snide media comments that it was all really Jacinda's win. That's an insult to kiwis whose votes were not mere personality votes but are intelligent and hopeful people seeking a real seachange. I believe the election result reflects the same increasing loud calls globally for greenness and justice.

      I see it as a massive No to oppressive leaders and their regimes. The right wing should take responsibility for the loss and say it was the fault of that bloodymindednasty Judith Trump and NatZ's musty-old crusties shocking support for the 1% capitalist bastards. Chris Bishop in late night interview almost gave away the idea that they're going to rolypoly someone out and down Parliament's steps.
      Diversity and democracy the NZ winners on the night !

    1. 45.1

      Same here Koff. Tied up next to a bulker at anchor in a 4 – 5m swell, two diesel engines running next to me and a greasy deck. Kind of surreal looking at my little cellphone and seeing these results.

      Ardern understood where NZ votes are in these hugely uncertain times, in the moderate centre. Well done and congratulations scarcely covers it, a true once in a generation overtopping landslide.

      Well this is the night a whole generation of left supporting people have dreamed of most of their adult lives, short of Clark's win in 1999.

      Really interesting is ACT's revival from the dead to match the Greens. A strongly ethnic vote I'd wager.

      And a final farewell to many people who served and contributed much to NZ political life, some for many decades. Our system depends on your willingness to face an uncertain fate at the pen of the voters every three years, and I salute your participation when at heart courageous and dignified.

  47. 47

    The last time I felt like this on election night was 2005. Remember in 2017 we were wondering which way Winston will go.

  48. 48

    Do all the early votes get added on at once or just electorate by electorate as they are counted? Are they in the the figures yet?

  49. 49

    Over half the votes counted. Electoral Commission meet their 50% target with 1/2 hour to spare. This has been a remarkably efficient run election.

    They are to be commended.

    1. 49.1

      1/4 of an hour to go and 95% target reached. Impressive work.

      When we compare this to the train wreck in the US we can place trust in our democracy – such is not the case there.

  50. 50

    Based on the official site numbers … it looks like Labour were over 50% on advance votes, but now below 50% on today's votes. So the overall number is dropping slightly, though not to put Labour's overall majority at risk.

    1. 50.1

      Yep … as the Election Day votes come in … Labour & the Greens slowly dropping … Nats & ACT slowly creeping up.

      But then Specials will no doubt move things back in a Leftward direction in a few weeks time.

  51. 51

    This explanation about the Epsom safe seat for Act in 2017 by NZ Herald is well put. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-results-2020-the-key-election-seats-latest-updates-on-the-electorates-that-might-change-hands/VXYQN4P6IA6Z7AVS7YANVMTM2I/

    The only other party that won a seat was Act in Epsom, thanks to a longstanding sweetheart deal with National designed to make sure that Act votes were not wasted in years when the party fell below the 5 per cent threshold for list seats.

    At the moment it appears that Chloe Swarbrick may get an electorate seat in Auckland Central – the voting is very even. The Electoral Commission site has shown one electorate to the Greens in their Projected figures.

  52. 52

    The votes on the day are closer than the early votes, so this will tighten up a little.

    It looks like 47.5 Labour 28.5 National in the end (the 50-25 is the early voting – on the day apparently it was more like 43 to 31 as per DPF twitter).

    National may win some of the electorates they are currently behind in. And ACT likely to pip Greens for 3rd.

      1. 52.1.1

        Sure, and they will all get a bit extra when votes to parties without seats are re-distributed. (around 5%). So Labour will be very close to 50% and maybe form a coalition government with the MP if they get seats. Thus the option of two support partners for confidence and supply or another 3 party coalition.

    2. 52.2

      My calculation of party vote totals was based on including the special votes (c500,000) at the 43-31 rate of the election day. It is not yet known if that will be the case.

  53. 53

    The lead has shrunk a bit since the first 1/3rd of the votes counted but at 2/3rds of the votes counted it looks like my area of Tukituki will go to Anna Lorck.

  54. 54

    Hmm strangely Nationals vote is going up (well slightly) as more votes are counted. Use to it going the other way.

    2. 54.2

      My Area Tukituki has seen the Labour lead shrink from the initial early vote count, but it still looks like it will see National loose this area after holding it the last few elections.

  56. 56

    Judith Collins gives a concession campaign speech. As always, reads the room of fans that she's in, not the room called New Zealand.

    Self-pity 1, self-awareness 0.

  57. 57

    Newshub a sad bunch, huh. Hillary Barry and Campbell on the other channel.

    Josie Pagani with her mates Chris Finlayson and Matthew Hooton as, after 60 odd percent counted with Labour on 49%, she announces an opinion that they could be on 43% after all the votes are counted.

    1. 57.1

      DPF said the vote on the day was Labour 43 to National 31. Pagani does not seem to realise most votes were before the day, so it has to be closer to 50% than 43.

    1. 61.1

      According to the conservative commentator on TV1, because the breadth of Labour's mandate means they have been dragged to the centre and will not do anything too progressive.

  66. 66

    Michael Woodhouse is out looking for about 12,400 anonymous homeless people so he can catch up with David Clark. Thank goodness for the list eh? smiley

  69. 69

    Didn't you have a more interactive election post last time, Lynn? No comments occurring in real time as you are on the post.

    Reading the mood and numbers here, despite the landslide, it's a defeat for we Left politics-minded. Ardern's victory speech sorta reminded me of Robert Redford's in 'The Candidate'. He'd been so fashioned to achieve victory after his initial idealism he had to ask his political advisor afterward, 'What do I do now?'.

    I couldn't find a comfortable coverage for the night.

    1. 73.1

      There's likely to be a slight shuffling of seats but not a change in overall proportionality. We'll still be seeing a strong Leftish government.

      1. 73.1.1

        thats a given but with almost half a million votes still to count (assuming comparable levels to 2017) which tend to favour the left and the greens in particular then its likely all upside…however it wont change the essential decisions needed by labour or the greens but it may change some of the personnel.

  74. 74

    This is November 1972 and July 1984 all over again. Not since then have I felt so elated. But Labour mustn't betray that trust as it did after 84 or lose its way as in 1972. Mind you in each of those cases it was trading on discontent with National. This time they are building on their own record. I notice that in National's immediate reaction to the result Covid was cited over and over again as the principal cause of this disaster. No mention of Michelle Boag and the outing of dirty politics.

    In the Town Hall acknowledgement Jacinda was all class, right from the brilliant introduction spoken in Te Reo. Such a contrast to JC.

    Hope they can include the Greens in the new line up.

  75. 75

    What a night, just fantastic and the icing on the cake will be listening into Mike Hosking explain why the polls were wrong… but not in the way he way was pontificating.

    1. 76.1

      I think Hoskings relentless negativity added to the bad smell National was giving off, and all the swing voters crinkled their noses at him and his ilk.

  77. 77

    We've had such a great night at Damien's election party in Motueka. It was packed, so many happy faces.

    Super thrilled with the results, wooooo hooooooo. SO HAPPY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  78. 78

    A great night. I had a range of expectations, maybe 65-55 at the lowest end, but the top of the range was around 70 seats (e.g. Labour 61/62, Greens 8/9). Would have happily settled for that.

    Honestly never expected National to do so badly. Check out the party vote in seats that they held. National lost the party vote in Tauranga! In North Shore! Anyone who predicted that was on drugs … but it happened.

    2. 78.2

      Also Greens got their first electoral seat in decades, and their second electoral seat ever.

      And pulled huge percentages of the Green party vote by herself.

      Surely time to make Chloe Co-Leader after a result like that.

      1. 78.2.1

        Actually looks like the Wellington Central, Rongotai and Dunedin electorates really pumped the party vote. Auckland central not so strong.

    1. 79.1

      ROFL !!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope she picks up two more votes in the specials.. imagine. Dang that's some funny as shit right there. Cracking up laughing.

      The Lord works in mysterious ways…… 🙂 🙂 Brilliant 🙂

      1. 80.2.1

        This will be the night with the highest height and the deepest fall that any government will ever go through.

        Tonight the flight bookings have occurred for the tomorrow morning flights to Wellington and the minor caucus coalitions get formed up. The next 72 hours determines the career trajectory of most of the 2017 MP intake and all of the 2020 intake. You're a thruster or you're thrusted.

        Most will of course get nothing.

        And then in a week the negotiations begin. Jobs are divvied up.

        And then they all get to face the worst global recession since the oil crisis. And they will then be held to account for it.

        From the highest height, will come the sharpest and deepest political fall and the ground is a hard reality.

          1. 80.2.1.1.1

            100% of people who drink milk die.

            Ardern said tonight that the voters have given Labour a very strong mandate.

            The question is, for all 64 of them, mandate to achieve what?

            Each MP now has just a few months to prove that they can be more than parliamentary-vote cannon fodder.

            The expectation of massive success following this massive shift in power is going to be just astonishingly high. They can't meet it.

            But they better die trying.

  81. 81

    Lynn, this isn't '35 Labour, This is '84 Labour. No one is going to die in a ditch for them, Everyone who works for them expects personal reward. We who were adults at the time, reasonably, want to overthrow them.

  82. 82

    Great result really. What else can you say? I think there will be a lot of people who will be relieved after tonight, knowing that Ruthenasia v2.0 is off the table.

    This site has been through defeats in 2008, 2011, 2014 and whatever 2017 was. Its nice to rack up a victory.

    None of the usual right wing commentators have come into share their thoughts…??

  84. 84

    Voter apathy GONE…along with a lot of nats : ) Green Chloe Swarbrick IN….(polls? Ha…)

    Let our NZ Reset/Rebuild flow….

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