Daily review 08/06/2022

21 comments on “Daily review 08/06/2022”

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    1. 1.1

      It may be rude to point out that New Zealand is generating more and more uneducated very poor children who will in time vote, but as we grow more unequal and underdereducated by the year it is also true.

  1. 2

    Pakistan moves to large load shedding as generation capacity goes off line due to shortages of LNG and coal.(moves government officials to not work saturdays)

    https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1533825192753242112

    Japan asks for energy conservation due to high cost of imports (falling yen) and delays in returning nuclear fleet.

    https://twitter.com/shoko_oda/status/1534086591719022594?cxt=HHwWhIDRoZLolcoqAAAA

    Australia with high export demand for both LNG and Coal,faces large price increases as contracts renew,and also has 7 thermals offline due to breakdowns and maintenance,the Australian resource minister has asked companies to get coal station back on line asap as significant cold events hit east coast.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-07/gas-crisis-fix-bring-coal-plants-online/101130832

    European big 5 now spending more (as per gdp) on energy subsidy then defense.

    Socialist Britain with 4.5% of gdp.

    https://twitter.com/Tagliapietra_S/status/1532389231598895104?cxt=HHwWgICw8eP4kcQqAAAA

    The cost of war is non linear.

    1. 2.1

      That's not governments 'shielding citizens' at all. It is governments allowing oil companies to rort everyone else and paying out incredible amounts of their own people's wealth to already ludicrously wealthy entities.

      It is a nasty cynical corrupt load of politicians who are afraid of reining in corporates (because they run America) that is to blame. Troughers and cowards.

      1. 2.1.1

        There were two ways to constrain the price shock,let the full prices take hold,then there would have been significant cost destruction as consumers kept their wallets in their pockets (IEA suggested 3 mbbd for oil) ,significant conservation regimes ( as seen in Japan) or BAU with political intervention and subsidy.The subsidy regime in europe is very much funded on both VAT and excess profits from energy companies.

    2. 2.2

      Great collection of factoids there Poisson.

      Lest we forget the North Island blackout last year on the coldest night of the year, we are about to get several days of solid snow in Otago and Southland over the weekend.

      Our own government has spent multiple billions shielding us from petrol and diesel price rises, further hundreds of millions on 'winter fuel subsidies', and IMHO likely to double down on it in the next budget.

      See if you can put our own public expenditure on that graph.

      1. 2.2.1

        First large cold event of the winter,( anomaly excursion of 3-5 c) coincides with preplanned maintenance for HVDC benmore to haywards (live wire work 13/6-17/6) in additional large hydro SI is also down with a NI generation shortfall next week and the following week.

        https://www.transpower.co.nz/sites/default/files/interfaces/can/CAN%20NZGB%20Assessment%20for%20Potential%20Negative%20Generation%204343308381.pdf

        We would be at the bottom of the graph with less then 1% of gdp.(fuel subsidy winter payment col allowance etc.)

            1. 2.2.2.1.1.1

              Yep,just using treasury budget figures and including the 3 month cost of living subsidy for less then 70k earners.

              The government borrowed 1.6% of gdp offshore for the covid response (wage subsidy etc) which is to be paid for going forward.

              1. 2.2.2.1.1.1.1

                we are getting some distance from fuel subsidies however.

                1.6% (5 billion) of GDP from offshore for covid…how do you arrive at that figure?

                  1. 2.2.2.1.1.1.1.2.1

                    My query was in relation to this statement…."Our own government has spent multiple billions shielding us from petrol and diesel price rises,"….my understanding is the fuel excise and RUC reductions will cost less than one billion (initial period was costed at 350 million)

                    Will also note the CRRF has to date been apportioned 70 billion…what proportion from offshore I have yet to determine.

                    1. 2.2.2.1.1.1.1.2.1.1

                      Well the statement came from AK,so it pays to divide by a 1/2,then a 1/3.

                      With the duel subsidy you also say get demand destruction for fuel as people move to PT,and the large 4/4 stays in the drive.

                      There is already some demand destruction of fuel volumes (dec-mar)

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