The Peters principle
There’s been a lot of coverage of Winston Peters lately. Most of his announcements have been perfectly predictable, but for me there have been two real surprises.
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nz first
Winnie’s big chance
The TV3 poll has the NACT vs Lab/Green/NZF gap at 22% vs 9% in the latest Roy Morgan. I’ll tend to pay attention to the company that polls every fortnight to the one that polls once in a blue moon. Nevertheless, the story of both polls is the same: Labour struggling to make headway + Nats potentially with a majority = opportunity for Winston Peters
Little impact from Hughes affair, NZF on the rise
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.
A hell of a speech
“The worldwide recession is not your fault… You are being softened up for cuts in social spending… It’s easy to see the people this government is looking after. If you are a bank boss on $5.6million, helping cause a recession, you get an extra five thousand a week. If you are on the minimum wage – you get an extra 25 cents an hour.”
Nats drop 6% on privatisation announcement
OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
Principles
So John Key has flip flopped and decided to rule out working with Winston Peters again. He’s trying to portray that as a principled decision, about running an “aspirational” government. So why did he need to spend so many months working out what his principles are? No, it’s a political decision. Key thinks he can squeeze a little more milage out of flogging the dead horse that is Winston Peters.
New Zealand’s Electoral Wild Card
Will New Zealand First get back into Parliament after the election? If they do, it changes everything. A range of new governing coalitions become possible – both National and Labour-led. Can the Left trust Winston Peters to side with Labour over National? Could a Left+NZF government work? Jenny looks at the issues.
How bad’s the poll?
Farrar and Slater are trying to knee-cap a poll in the SST tomorrow. They know the numbers because Key’s office told them. Obviously jittered. Slater says it has NZF at 8.9%. Movement of ipredict stocks suggest its bad news for Nats and Labour. If Nats are in mid-40s then they’re in danger territory. Very hard for them to find a majority.
What would a National win mean in 2011?
In my final post I look at the possible influence coalition partners could have on a future National government. Even if Labour loses in 2011, an outright win for right-wing economic doctrine is not necessarily on the cards.
NZF poll is wrong
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
Some thoughts on ACT
One way or another ACT’s troubles are going to ripple through the entire political discourse.
So what’s likely to happen with Garrett?
And what does it mean for everyone else?
Crown ownership by any other name would smell as bad
Unnoticed amongst all the earthquake coverage was a small article in the Weekend Dompost on the foreshore and seabed deal. Apparently, ‘public domain’ will no longer appear in the new legislation. Instead, we’ll have a new name, possibly ‘takutaimoana’, Te Reo for ‘seabed’. That sound you can hear Winston Peters is rubbing his hands with glee.
ACT’s demise bad news for neo-liberals
No wonder Winston Peters is smiling. His personal vendetta with Hide must be at on the forefront of his mind as he watches his nemesis sink.
But what does ACT’s impending demise actually mean for other parties? It’s not good news for National.
Peters vs Key
TV3 is reporting Winston Peters will standing at the next election… against John Key in Helensville. Those are candidate meetings I for one wouldn’t want to miss!
Key and Peters best buddies?
Key hasn’t ruled out working with Winston after 2011. This seems like a huge miscalculation. Not only has he added legitimacy to the re-animation of this political zombie, but he has also cut the legs out from under the right’s “Winston is the devil” campaign. That giant sucking sound you hear? That’s DPF’s head imploding.
NZF dodges the Lhaws bullet
Must admit my heart sank this morning when I read that “Winston Peters and his former adviser Michael Laws are to team up again as part of a “relaunch†of the party this year”…
John Carter: sleeper-agent for the Left?
How dumb was John Carter to use his speech at the Grey Power National Conference to have a cry because Grey Power’s participating in an inquiry into aged care by Labour, the Greens, and the Progressives? You don’t try to bully Grey Power with its 100,000 members. The grey voters will be leaving National in droves.
Hide opens door for Winston?
Eddie has already covered the story of Hide giving the middle finger to the people of Franklin regarding the Supercity. Franklin is Tory […]
Blast from the past
I see Winston Peters is trying to resurrect his political career with another racist rant about immigration. I don’t think there’s much point […]
S59, an opening for Winston?
In 2007, 113 MPs voted for the Bradford amendment to s59 of the Crime Act. Eight voted against it. One of them was […]
Winston rising
Like some bad horror movie, from beyond the political grave, it stirs again. Christine Rankin? Unbelievably – yes. Don Brash? Well yes, him […]
Vote smart: Winnie cleared but too late
New Zealand First has now been cleared by the Police or any illegal behaviour. That’s three from three but too late. I’ve never […]
End of Winston?
The Dominion Post has published some pretty damning evidence indicating Winston Peters’ connections with the Vela family. According to the Dom Winston’s right-hand […]
Will Labour back $15 minimum wage?
The unions want the minimum wage lifted to $15 an hour, two thirds of the average hourly rate, restoring the historic ratio. The […]
Not with a bang but a whimper
The Privileges Committee has reported back. Peters is censured for not declaring that he had made a pecuniary gain from his lawyer taking […]
Roy Morgan has Winston on 5%
If the latest Roy Morgan poll is to be believed, John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition […]
End of the line for Peters
Winston Peters will be wondering why he has let his political legacy be destroyed by not simply declaring donations that came from legal […]
Why didn’t NZF use Nats’ donations playbook?
This business with donations from the Spencer Trust going to New Zealand First but not being declared. I find it hard to credit […]
Break open the trusts
As we’ve discussed earlier, it would be highly surprising if the investigations into NZF’s finances find any serious illegality. At worst, a failure to […]
Peters stands down
Peters has stood down. Clark has taken over his portfolios. It’s good that Peters appears to have accepted that this is a necessity […]
But why?
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on Peters because its not the kind of issue that affects Kiwis lives (its […]
Clark cuts the thread
Winston Peters’ stories around the Owen Glenn donation to his legal fund are dangerously convoluted and have stretched everyone’s credulity but without real […]
Herald poll shows Nats’ lead collapsing
Today’s Herald-Digi poll is the first to be released that was taken after the secret agenda tape scandal had fully emerged and had some […]
Whom to believe? (2)
Owen Glenn’s letter to the Privileges Committee contradicts Winston Peters’ previous statements to the media, the Privileges Committee, and, presumably, the PM. Glenn says […]
Winston and the wanker
Today’s front-page story in the DominionPost on New Zealand First is a complete beat-up. It starts off: More questions have been raised about […]
Open up the trusts
Bob Jones confirmed on Morning Report that he gave $25,000 in 2005 to New Zealand First. The money was to be funnelled to […]