Bernard Hickey looks at the tax bludgers. Labour’s plans to introduce a higher new top tax rate would raise needed tax from those who can most afford it. But it would also foster more tax bludging by the rich. Rather than throw the baby out with the bathwater by abolishing the top rate, we need to eliminate the avenues for bludging.
OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
One of John Key’s excuses for selling our SOEs is that we need the cash to buy $33 billion of new assets over the next 5 years. Sounds like a lot, eh? It turns out the Crown spent $42 billion on new assets* over the last 5 years without selling our SOEs and even with that $33 billion of new capital spending the deficit will be gone in 4 years … I wonder what Key’s next line will be.
John Key Oct 2010: “I don’t think we should argue we are in a recession … now that summer has come, economic activity is starting to pick up.”
Building consents lowest on record * unemployment hits 6.8% * retail spending falls * We’ve had double dip recession
The same old formula has played out again: National appoints an expensive, hand-picked working group (the Savings Working Group). The working group comes up with predictable recommendations. The Nats extreme recommendations out of hand, to appear moderate, and do what they were planning to do. Here are the real savings solutions.
December 2007, John Key, speaking to Carolyne Brooks-Quan said: “We would love to see wages drop“. Key tried several conflicting excuses, including that he was talking about Australian wages (which became a mini-meme). But actions speak louder than words. Yesterday, we had more confirmation that wages have dropped under Key, except for union members.
The early childhood education cuts have hit – families will face an average $20-$45 a week increase in the cost of sending a kid to kindy. And Anne Tolley is signaling more to come. But it’s not just the education of the next generation that’s for the chop as National seeks to balance the books after its tax cuts for the rich binge.
Russel Norman followed Phil Goff and John Key’s state of the nation speeches with the annual Greens state of the planet address. The capital gains tax initiative grabbed headlines but there’s a lot more going on beneath the surface. As we face myriad economic and environmental problems, the Greens have the real answers.
John Key, very optimistically, reckons he can raise $10 billion by selling our assets. Key’s Government gave massive tax cuts, averaging $16,000 each, to the richest 1% of taxpayers that they’ll get year after year. The present value of those tax cuts for the richest 1% is over $10 billion. He’s selling our assets to pay for tax cuts for the richest 1%.
In 2008, John Key’s line was ‘New Zealand doesn’t have a debt problem, it has a growth problem’. In Budget 2010, he said the Crown would be back into surplus in record time. In December, he said debt wouldn’t force a downgrade. Now, he says debt is such a problem we need to slash and sell. When did he mean what he said? Never. It has never been about debt.
While we’re all eagerly awaiting Tracy Waktins et al’s reviews of John Key’s controversial decision to wear a mauve tie in his state of the nation speech, I thought I would look at some of the reasons why asset sales are such a stupid idea.
It’s not radical, it’s not revolutionary but Phil Goff has laid out a positive, progressive, and affordable vision that contrasts with John Key’s directionless, lazy leadership. It seems to be popular. The PM’s state of the nation is expected to contain an interesting savings policy but always the question is: cue bono?
John Key says that he can’t increase the minimum wage by a decent amount. The excuse this time round is that a decent increase will destroy jobs. Well, let’s check that out a little bit. Is it really true that lifting the minimum wages destroys jobs? If it is, do the benefits outweigh the gains? And what about the cost of letting wages fall?
The Legatum Prosperity Index looks beyond GDP, a failed measure that counts rebuilding after an earthquake as a gain. The Index is a broad measure of nations’ prosperity comprising 88 components. It shows that New Zealand is a relatively prosperous nation. It also shows that relative prosperity is falling under National.
Higher commodity and food prices, we are told are a Good Thing. Our exporters (ie. Fonterra and foreign oil companies) get more money. But we consumers have to pay more to by the same products, so are we better off? And what about the poor saps overseas who are paying more for less, or the really poor saps who are priced out of the market?
Today’s Herald editorial explores Auckland Grammar’s decision to ditch NCEA in favour of the Cambridge exams and the support this elitism, which undermines the NCEA system, has received from Anne Tolley. Never shy to give helpful advice to its favoured PM, the Herald tells Key it’s time to rid himself of the incompetent Tolley.
The international evidence that National Standards don’t work is conclusive. Only 20% of schools are ready to implement them and over 300 schools are refusing all together. What’s our Minister for Education’s response to the objections of people who have dedicated their lives to education? A declaration of war – using the kids against the teachers.
We have a national myth that everyone is in essence equal, yet we have a disparity of wealth where 10% own more than the other 90% put together and 50% have no net assets. How does one square away occupying a position of extreme privilege in a democratic society? Often, by convincing yourself that your privilege doesn’t exist.
It’s been revealed that the Government, having decided against dedicated Maori seats on the supercity council, gave appointed Maori advisers votes on council committees under its supercity legislation. That’s just unacceptable, we can’t have appointees voting equally to democratically-elected council members.
It’s always so wonderful to load up Granny Herald and see some wealthy late middle-aged grump (I’m picking this one is John Roughan) taking a swipe at the poor in the editorial. Today, Granny says we can’t afford to give mums more paid leave or more Working for Families for young kids. Hmm. But we can still afford those tax cuts for the rich?
Overcrowding is a big problem that drives disease and prevents kids getting the best start in life. Normally, I would say that the solution to overcrowding is more state housing – eco-smart housing, which would also create jobs. But an interesting article in the Guardian recently by George Monbiot suggests another solution.
Remember back when Labour was in power and the Right had this myth that dole numbers had only dropped because Labour had moved people to other benefits? It wasn’t true but that didn’t stop John Key saying it during one of the 2008 debates as he promised to get more people into work. Now, 2 years later, 83,879 more Kiwis are on benefits.
When the government, eventually, gets back from its month-long holiday, it needs to review the minimum wage. To keep up with inflation, the increase needs to be at least 50 cents an hour to $13.25. If we want to catch Australia, we should copy them and lift it to $15.
The Herald today has an article that serves as a stalking-horse for privatisation of public assets. Privatisation is a core part of National’s agenda- it will have to push for it in some form at the election. Articles like this one are all about softening us up for that campaign.
The few neoliberals who can bring themselves to acknowledge that peak oil is inevitable and upon us argue it’s not really a problem: ‘when prices rise, people will buy alternatives instead, like electric cars’. But peak oil causes recessions and recessions kill car sales. Even if enough electric cars could be made, could we afford to buy them?
You would think that, to reassure the families and satisfy critics, the government would have released detailed technical analysis showing why re-entering Pike River will never be possible. Instead, we got vague, contradictory statements only after the media pressed Key for answers. Now, a mining expert has confirmed the mine’s atmosphere is stable and can be made breathable cheaply.
Since it came to office, National has cut the Conservation budget in real terms by 2% and the cuts are going to get deeper. Now, we learn that DoC is looking at contracting out camping areas on the conservation estate to be run for a profit. Coincidence? I think not. It’s privatisation by stealth.
A strange little article in the Sunday-Star Times praises National’s ‘rejuvenation’ project. Well, excuse me but 3 MPs out of 53 announcing their retirement and 2 quitting under clouds of corruption during a term hardly equals rejuvenation. In fact, National faces the same problem that Labour did – too little turnover.
Does this Herald article about the New Citizen Party meeting in Beijing make anyone else uneasy? I’ve no problem with a new political party that’s targeted at migrants. My concern is the apparent links with the Chinese Government. We don’t want a foreign government putting up a proxy in our elections.
The Right hates MMP. Back in the good old FPP days, about 20% of voters backed leftwing parties like Values, the Alliance, and Social Credit but got nearly no representation. National could govern alone with just 35% of the vote or fewer votes than the other major party. The Right was happy with that. So, they’ll be pissed Kiwis prefer MMP.
The CTU have launched the latest of their quirky and cute campaigns. Job Survivor Island illustrates the effects on real people of the […]
No, this post isn’t about Smile and Wave’s failure to close the gap with Australia. It’s about the widening gap between the tiny elite in this country and the rest of us. Even before the Great Recession, 10% controlled more wealth than the rest of us combined. The housing market shows that their wealth is still rising while ours falls.
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.
Why New Zealand’s lack of a fast jet military capability is suddenly an issue? We been fine without it for nine years. Renowned defence expert David Farrar weighs calls the decision to mothball the Skyhawks and Aermacchis ‘terrible’, citing the $34 million spent keeping them saleable, but how’s that compare to the cost of keeping them flying?
With oil heading back to $100+ a barrel, food prices are also rising. That makes sense, fuel and fertiliser from oil are major food production costs. The global food price index is now higher than it was in 2008. In New Zealand, we’re supposed to celebrate high food prices but the reality is it means starvation and social unrest around the world.
I never, ever thought I would say this but there’s a very good article in Investigate this week. It’s about the Pike River disaster. With methane sensors in place, alarms should have gone off well before the gas reached combustible level. Investigate reveals the sensors may have been disabled by workers who would lose pay if they had to stop work.
