Any minute now, we should find out whether we are allowed to know the secret plans that John Key and John Banks were foolish enough to discuss in a public cafe in front of the country’s media, or whether that information will be denied us before we vote on Saturday.
Update: Judge has declined to make a decision.
So it can be published without breaking the law. Publication is only illegal if publisher knows the interception was illegal. No-one can now know that.
Phil Goff has signed a pledge that Labour will not sell Kiwibank if it becomes government. Other party leaders have been invited as well. I expect the Greens, New Zealand First, Mana, and the Conservatives will (who knows about the Maori Party). But will Key sign? National is secretly itching to sell Kiwibank, Bill English got caught out admitting as much.
Checking out data matches that show beneficiaries may have moved overseas and stopping their benefit if they have. That’s back-office work, eh? Exactly the kind of ‘unsexy’ jobs National has been cutting. Well, MSD stopped data matching because its resource were stretched too thin – and overpayments doubled to $19m. Heck of a job, National.
National is getting increasingly hysterical as its internal polling shows its majority slipping away and New Zealand First above 5%. National is lashing out, saying Winston could trigger a snap election because he wouldn’t sacrifice his principles like the Maori Party and ACT. Invent your own anti-NZF scare line for National:
I have no sympathy for politicians complaining about their ‘private’ political conversations being made public. What politicians say on politics is inherently of public interest. Don’t say different things in private then in public, and you won’t get caught out. It’s a matter of integrity. We can now reveal what John Key really thinks about climate change.
Kazakhstan police have ordered four media organisations to hand over evidence of an alleged illegal recording of President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The police said they would carry out searches to get the material. Opposition politicians have accused Mr Nazarbayev of trying to gag the media in the run-up to an election next weekend.
The Herald reports CEOs are moaning that MMP won’t let them ram through unpopular policies. I can’t think of a better reason to vote MMP.
Winston is leaking details of the teapot tapes. Plenty of other rumours doing the rounds, including a TV1 poll tonight that shows no damage to the Nats on voting intentions yet.
Minor Leaders’ debate: Winston Peters 36%, Hone Harawira 27%, Don Brash 14%.
Fairfax Epsom poll: Paul Goldsmith 45.5%, John Banks 29.1%.
Impact of Key endorsement: More likely to vote Banks 23%, Less likely 30%.
Taranaki Daily news debate exit poll: Andrew Little 64.5%, Jonathan Young 28%.
The teapot tapes story (seems that’s the name that’s been settled on, despite the story involving neither teapots nor tapes) has evolved two distinct strands: the contents of the Key-Banks conversation, which is gradually coming out through the media, and the very aggressive, poorly conceived response of National which is making it worse for them.
Update: According to Fairfax reporter Danya Levy on Twitter, Key has just “stormed out” of a press conference after further questioning on the tapes. He’s losing it. Now The Herald has the story.
120 ‘policies’ and only 1 of them new. That’s National’s economic development “action plan“. It looks superficially impressive at first: 120 points – what a busy government. But then you read, and it’s all stuff that’s underway or already announced, or in some cases Labour policies that are already complete. This is a (bad) PR exercise, not a plan.
New Zealand has drifted under National for 3 years. They came to power with a plan they developed years earlier at the peak of the good times: cut taxes, sell assets, build roads. They haven’t altered that plan despite the weakest ‘recovery’ in history, no jobs, record borrowing, and the dark clouds on the economic horizon. Rod Oram fillets them
Labour’s fisheries policy will phase-in a requirement for fishing vessels to be at least 50% Kiwi-crewed and at least 50% of processing would have to occur here. Good start. It’s our fish – it should be harvested sustainably to create Kiwi jobs with fair pay and adequate conditions. The shame of slave fishing has to be ended.
So, John Key and John Banks have a meeting in a cafe, full of members of the public. They get the photo-op, then usher the media out. A HoS cameraman accidentally leaves his audio recorder. Key and Banks talk. In public. Anyone in the cafe could hear. The recorder gets the conversation. Key bullies the HoS into not printing it. The HoS caves. Disgraceful.
Well, that was a let down. The much-hyped ‘cup of tea’ climaxed in Key saying that he would be voting for Goldsmith but he “wouldn’t be unhappy” if other Epsom voters back Banks. A double negative? Hardly a ringing endorsement. I think it’s too little, too late, for a man and a party that are too unpopular. All Key has done is tie his brand to extremists.
John Key’s promising new capital spending projects left, right, and centre that would be funded by asset sales. But, with the European debt crisis spreading, the odds of getting $5-$7 billion for slices of our energy companies and Air NZ are worsening. So what’s the plan when they need more money for Key’s promises? What do you think?
John Banks says the brand he is campaigning for in Epsom is ‘Brand Key’, not ACT. Epsomites don’t want three-time loser Don Brash but it’s unavoidably true that a vote for Banks is a vote for Brash. This is leading to a further unattractive debacle as Banks tries to distance himself from his leader, who he’s trying to get into parliament.
Labour released its excellent children’s policy yesterday that will lift 150,000 children out of poverty and enhance families’ quality of life. The Right is wailing. Fuck ’em. They’ve turned a blind eye while 32,000 more kids have fallen into poverty. Only a Labour-led government will have the policies for a truly brighter future for all Kiwis, especially our kids.
We live in a time of inter-related crises of the environment and the capitalist economic system. So, I guess it’s not surprising to see Labour becoming more environmentally aware at the same time as the Greens propose economic policies that would normally be out of Labour’s playbook. Don’t worry about them becoming too alike, welcome the solid platform for a new government.
John Key has been asked if he will be giving an explicit order to National voters in Epsom to vote for John Banks. He said ‘not today’. He said that a few weeks ago too. No photo-op of Key shaking Banks’ hand either. Why the hold-up? What could possibly be behind National wariness of linking Brand Key to Banks?
Last year and the year before, the portions of the assets National wants to sell paid over $400 million in dividends. Labour estimates lost dividends from those assets would total $11 billion by 2026. That’s an $11 billion hole in National’s budgets they haven’t accounted for. When will National front up and show us the money?
It’ll be interesting to see the full fiscal details from Labour today. National is planning to borrow too, the question is how much they differ by. Only $2.6b in the first term with both having net debt about $50b. That’s the alternative to selling our profitable assets to pay for capital investment. The Nats’ $17b claim is riddled with basic errors. Updated with more bad adding from Key
There’s a TVNZ poll out tonight and a Herald poll tomorrow morning but, ahead of them, here’s some other new polls results that point to trouble for the Nats. 27% of young people want to leave New Zealand. 82% of people oppose farm sales to foreign buyers. 24% of people will change their vote over the Rena.
Labour’s EQC policy has taken the holes in the current system revealed by the earthquakes – too low cap, inequitable flat levy, non-universal coverage, lack of provision for accommodation coverage – and fixed them. On top of that, they’ve promised to give people access to their geotech info. Great policy. No wonder National’s angry.
Goff had Key in all sorts of trouble on the Christchurch recovery, on Key’s economic record, on asset sales, on the GST lie. Goff was passionate on equality and got across both Labour’s vision and how that will be made real. It was notable that Key’s only strong point was when he got off his own record and his own promises and on to making up numbers about Labour’s policies. Goff didn’t have a strong rebuttal. He’ll need one before the next TV debate.
National says it’ll get 57,000 more people off benefits and into work over 4 years. That would require 50% more job creation than Treasury projects. Unless you do something about the lack of jobs, you won’t get benefit numbers down. Promising the latter without doing the former is a fraud on New Zealand. Just another broken Nat promise waiting to happen.
Key’s biggest mistake: with all the disasters that have occurred in the last 3 years that have affected so many thousands of people he couldn’t have done anything better to improve their lives other than communicated a bit better about BMWs?
Here are my top moments from the first Leaders’ Debate. When you write them down, it’s pretty clear that Goff won all the major exchanges.
What were the top moments for you, what else did you want to see?
Goff was the big underdog going into the debate after Key bested Clark in 2008. Goff far exceeded expectations. Got his policies out, got the best hits in, and sounded like a PM. Key was under-prepared and complacent. After an aggressive start intended to knock Goff out, Key was on the backfoot throughout.
It’s been an extraordinary few weeks. It started with the double downgrade/DJ Key fiasco and Rena. Then Labour started dictating the play: its policies setting the beat of the campaign; its framing dominating. National took its only asset, Brand Key, and trashed it with its phony, weird opening address. And, then, National’s launch was over-shadowed by the rail loop announcement.
National has already booked the revenue from asset sales – despite people opposing them 4 to 1. The Budget docs say capital spending will be funded from the ‘balance sheet’: ie. buying new assets like schools and hospitals with revenue from selling the power companies. Key will re-announce this today. But, in the long-run we’ll be able to afford more schools and hospitals if we don’t sell our profit-generating assets.
Update: as expected, Key has re-accounced what is already in the Budget and given it a fancy new name.
The first of the leaders’ debates is on tomorrow (it would have been on Thursday on Labour’s savings policy, but Key refused to show). Key’s strategy is clear: ‘I’m a safe economic manager, these guys will fuck it up’. Goff can’t let a single attack slide. Every time Key disses Labour’s or ups his own record, Goff just needs to cite one of these facts.
Sprout’s post says it all. Labour’s opening address blew National’s out of the park. But I can’t help myself, I have to put in my analysis of why National’s was so awful and Labour’s so good. Almost out of nowhere, Labour has seized the discourse. It is dictating the run of play with its policies, its framing, and, now, with its marketing. This is how you win.
Well, they said they were going to run this campaign on policy and make the bold moves, and Labour proved that with their savings policy. National is been left floundering. Brand Key is unraveling while Labour starts to dictate the play for the first time since Orewa. But the substance of the savings policy wants a closer look, it has both good and bad aspects.
There’s almost too many excellent parodies of National’s silly billboards and ads.
It was meant to be so easy. With high polling and several possible support partners, National would breeze into a second term thanks to Brand Key. The man himself would carried around the country by crowds of adoring locals. It would be more coronation than campaign. So, why are National weather-vanes, Farrar and Slater, hitting the panic-button?
