polling

British politics – hurry up and wait for a general election

Written By: nickkelly
Date published: - 16 comments

While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.

Matthew’s Magic Numbers

Written By: te reo putake
Date published: - 43 comments

Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.

UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!

The folly of electoral pacts

Written By: nickkelly
Date published: - 2 comments

Originally posted  Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred […]

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: Matthew Whitehead
Date published: - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Where and how to vote

Written By: the sprout
Date published: -

Regardless of who you decide to vote for, it’s really important that you do exercise your democratic duty to vote. Here’s a link […]

Latest Roy Morgan poll

Written By: Michael Foxglove
Date published: - 103 comments

Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%

Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.

Supercity: Who’s gonna vote?

Written By: Sam Cash
Date published: - 21 comments

Recent polls highlight how important turnout will be at this year’s local body election.

Sam Cash takes a look at recent history and how attitudes to the supercity and the themes of this election could increase participation.