Your Preliminary Parliament for 2020
On the preliminary results, we have our expected MPs. While Parliament may change a little, we now know its shape, and its likely members- with about three exceptions.
Matthew Whitehead
Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush
We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.
Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020
Pollwatch returns, with a Labour majority government no longer a complete certainty, and with another poor result for National.
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Raymond Huo resigning at election
Raymond Huo has announced he will no longer contest the 2020 election.
Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
How to vote in STV
It’s local voting time again, and more councils are using STV- while the Electoral Commission will tell you how to rank candidates, they won’t tell you how to vote effectively. Should you leave candidates off your list if you know what relative order they would go in?
Pollwatch: 9th June 2019
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice […]
In defense of taxing the family home
Let’s talk about why houses, art, and basically everything should be in the new Capital Gains Tax that Labour and New Zealand First should get onboard with, contrary to their reservations.
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 18/02/2019
Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.
Dead cats and silly sausages
Today in distractions: David Carter is covering for Simon Bridges’ polling results by upsetting the whole idea of non-partisan accountability of the Government to Parliament in select comittees, I give some free advice to the National Party comms team knowing they won’t pull it off, and Mallard has lost patience with non-answers
Pollwatch: 11/02/2019
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, […]
What do we want in 2019?
It’s election year again- but only for local elections this time. What do you want your local candidates to address?
The dirty politics of beating up on Karel Sroubek
You will be shocked to learn that the National Party has been less than honest about where it is getting its information regarding Karel Sroubek.
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Let’s talk mental health
With the news about Jami-Lee Ross being taken into care, now’s a good time to talk about mental health, and how it should be handled in politics.
Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Godwin’s flaw?
In which we discuss a number of quick hits: Trump thinks judges only exist to be bribed, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders can’t get a seat at a restaurant, and whether Godwin’s Law needs to be amended.
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018
Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.
Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.
A belated congratulations
Post Immigration New Zealand Spreadsheet debacle, Ministers Curran and Shaw announce a stocktake and review of all government algorithms.
A study in contrasts
Minister Twyford’s resignation has been refused by the Prime Minister after he took a call against Civil Aviation rules, in the second ministerial scandal of the Ardern administration.
Industrial action is one way to increase wages
The National Party has recently been on the Government’s case for increasing strikes under their watch. But is that really a fair criticism, and does it jive well with the other things the Opposition has been claiming to value?
Today in schadenfreude
For those who occassionally enjoy dark laughter at the truly deserved pain of others, today brings supremely ironic news in the continued culture war on queer people in New Zealand.
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
What did we want from Marama Davidson?
While there has been some informed commentary on Marama Davidson’s ascension as co-leader of the Green Party, some of the more right-wing outfits have failed to understand the dynamics within the party right now. What did Marama promise, and what were Greens expecting of her?
An Orwellian Minister for Open Government
The Minister for Open Government has been caught organizing a secret meeting, and it has led to the resignation of an RNZ manager who covered for her. Is it time to kick Curran out?
Corporate media: Blame it on the alcohol
Do we have a sexual assault problem in New Zealand, or an alcohol problem? The media has decided for you. (Content warning: Sexual assault, rape culture, discussion of problematic news coverage thereof)
Tripling down on financial illiteracy with Amy Adams (and MMT)
Amy Adams won’t commit to $11.7b, but she too has now become the third person to fall down the imaginary fiscal hole. How can National claim to have any soundness on finance if they won’t admit their criticisms on the economy are unreasonable and unfounded? And besides, aren’t National actually worse fiscal managers if ordinary people tend to get paid less under their regimes? We dive into some theory to thoroughly dispute even Steven Joyce’s/Amy Adam’s secondary criticism of “fiscal tightness,” although concede that two of the Budget Responsibility rules are probably stupid in order to do it.
TPP2: Electric Boogaloo
The TPP is due to be signed today. For those who aren’t done to death with hearing about it, why is it still bad, why hasn’t it met Labour’s bottom lines, and why are we even signing it?
Respecting our Rights and the New Zealand Constitution
The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister teased a little bit of constitutional change yesterday. Let’s look at what that could actually mean, and how it could upon up old laws for review by Parliament.
Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Knighthood Interrupted, and the curious case of New Zealand Defamation Law
Bob Jones is now suing the woman that wants to strip him of his Knighthood over her use of the term “hate speech.” Can we think about perhaps stopping this litigiousness now?
And we’re off to the races!
With Julie Anne Genter, Minister for Women, entering the co-leadership race, there’s now a real contest on our hands as to who joins James Shaw as co-leader of the Green Party. What does that mean for the Greens, and for New Zealand politics in general?
Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.