polity

Polity: Armstrong on Labour, turnout, MMP

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 28 comments

Over the weekend John Armstrong had a column about youth voter turnout in the upcoming election. Much of the material was familiar – young people don’t vote so much – nobody talks their language, yo! – parties are Trying Very Hard, but they are also old fuddy-duddies – and so on. He then blamed much of it on a perceived trend toward centrist politics under MPP. But runs directly-if-casually contrary to at least two large research programmes in political science.

Polity: Judith Collins on crime

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 32 comments

Last week, new information became public about potential stat-juking by our Police. The practice of reclassifying crimes as “incidents” has the effect of artificially reducing the apparent crime rate. This practice occurred mainly in the Counties-Manukau police district, which operates in the electorate of then-Police Minister Judith Collins.  That is, of course, troubling on a number of levels.

Updated.

Polity: The ENV debate: Some more data

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 14 comments

Rob Salmond presents the David Farrar / Steven Joyce / John Key argument that 2011 non voters are a National-leaning bunch. Then he shows that a better look at their own data undermines their claim. This matters because it helps us understand which bloc has more to gain from voter mobilization efforts in 2014.  This means the left has a lot more to gain than the right from mobilization in 2014.

Polity: Japan opposes, sinks NZ-style TPP

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 6 comments

New Zealand has almost no leverage in 21st century trade talks because we have gave it away in the 80s and 90s. The 12 country TPP is better thought of now as a bilateral US/Japan deal with as many hangers on as would like to hang on. The trapping are still of a 12 country deal, of course.  The TPP club is Barack, Shinzo, and nobody else. That’s realpolitik.

Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 8 comments

At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.

National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.

It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.

Polity: Family violence: National views

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 5 comments

The Expert Advisory Panel on Domestic Violence reported back to the government this week. It says New Zealand’s record is not good enough, victims deserve better, and politicians need to show some real leadership to prevent an escalating series of national tragedies. In essence the governments response has been to ignore everything in the report. It really isn’t good enough.

Polity: Who do the “missing million” like?

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 17 comments

National appear to have been indulging in wishful thinking for some time based on dubious analysis of voter turnout.  Their latest round of silliness comes from kiwiblog. Sure there were some National supporters who chose not to vote in 2011 out of complacency. But it is probably a minority, and that most of the new non-voters (who voted up to and including 2008, and then stopped) are lefties. The survey evidence points that way, and so does the E9 evidence when looked at properly.

Polity: Today’s Herald editorial

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 33 comments

The NZ Herald has been particularly stupid recently, especially in its editorials. Now some of the anonymous editorial writers appear to have descended to not even reading their own paper. Today whoever wrote the editorial are suggesting that Labour release a particular policy, one that their political gallery writers wrote about on Wednesday. I guess that ‘anonymous’ couldn’t stand to read their own paper when it refers to Labour? Now that is really being biased.

Polity: Brownlee burns $100,000 or $5 million, take your pick

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 27 comments

The Government has almost finished a $100,000 project to strengthen a bridge it will now tear down and replace as part of its new roading package. The $3m to $5m cost to replace the bridge, with construction due to start next year, was a “massive investment while there’s other more pressing priorities in the region”. Who would have thought that pork-barrel road projects had such poor cost/benefit reasoning behind them. Heckuva job, Gerry. OIA time

Polity: ROPS – Roads of Political Significance

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 131 comments

National’s announcement yesterday of $212 million for 14 roading projects around regional New Zealand hits a lot of bad notes. I think it is a strategic mistake.  New Zealanders are not used to pork-barreling as naked as this. All but two of the projects are in National-held areas, and those other two are on National’s target list in September. And some are complete clunkers. For instance Nick Smith rerouting SH6 from the rich houses on to the kids going to schools

Polity: Herald editorialisal

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 8 comments

Once there is real, hard evidence of donations, then Labour can deal with it. Until then, there is nothing. The editorial is titled: “Cries of bias will not stop reporting.” Nobody is asking the Herald to stop reporting. I, for one, would just like to see better reporting. Better doesn’t necessarily mean “more favourable to my preferred political party;” better means “with greater regard for facts and less regard for compromised hearsay.”

Polity: What tax would Warren Buffet pay in New Zealand?

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 14 comments

With the ritual whining from the right about our tax rates in New Zealand now that Labour given aspects of their alternative budget, it pays to consider what the real tax rates for the wealthy here are. Because of our lack of a capital gains tax, we are in the strange position where we would tax a wealthy investor like Warren Buffet a lot less than he is in the USA. Thats outrageous.

Polity: Labour’s fiscal plan: B+

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 20 comments

I’m a glass half-full kind of a guy, so I want to start by emphasising the parts of  Labour’s just-released fiscal plan that I like. The good: commitment to paying off government debt during economic good times, tax rate changes are welcome, and targeting tax avoidance by large multinationals. Bad: the top tax rate is still too low, and no need to signal second term tax cuts. Overall I would give this package a B+.

Polity: TPP deal on rocks. Surprise!

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 10 comments

John Key is abandoning hope of a TPP deal. As it stands at present there is nothing in it for New Zealand. Of course the usual ugly swamp that is US internal politics is making the deal descend into a mire.

Expect nothing to happen for another year or two, and maybe the damn thing will never happen.

Polity: Colin Craig confused

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 27 comments

This morning’s news from the Fairfax/Ipsos poll is that 81% of New Zealanders hate coat-tailing and want it gone. I agree with them. So does Labour. So do the Greens. So do Internet MANA. National, of course, relishes coat-tailing. So – to the 81% – if you want 2014 to be the last election with any coat-tailing, vote for a change of government. In the meantime of course, we have Crazy Colin Craig who thinks that Key’s job is to give just him a seat, entirely of his own accord, with no “insipid” discussions about the quid pro quo. Good luck with that.

Polity: The game is the game

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 24 comments

Rob Salmond offers some advice to the National smear team. When you screw up and start contradicting each other’s stories, you look like a pack of low-rent numpties. And it reveals your tactics for all to see, which is what you were trying to avoid in the first place. Bill English and John Key should really communicate so they don’t trample over each others stories. And the  spectacle of Michael Woodhouse changing his mind within hours about when he first saw the letter, and what he did with it? Pure comedy

Polity: Free trade fundies

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 2 comments

The great tragedy in New Zealand trade policy came in the 1990s when we almost literally gave away the farm, dismantling most of our tariffs unilaterally to “demonstrate” how much fun life is with no tariffs. You can’t get much more fundie than that.  And now – quelle surprise – we have basically no cards to play when negotiating with other countries. Who would have thought it?

Polity: Herald poll

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 60 comments

Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year. The formation of the Internet Mana Party doesn’t appear to have made much impact on their combined vote.  Also the various poll of polls corrected for known biases and looking at probably seat allocations don’t look good either. Some work for the progressive parties to make up over the next 95 days.

Polity: Nats’ sanctimony on tactical voting

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 34 comments

Poor David Farrar, he can’t write a post without getting accused of hypocrisy these days. It must have to do with that rancid stench he emanates whenever he gets on his high horse to lecture others. There’s only one political leader out there saying: “Tactical voting is a good idea for my supporters, and long may it continue, but it is a dreadful crime by others.” That leader is John Key.

Polity: Internet Party: “Ban coat-tailing.”

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 26 comments

New Zealand’s democracy would better if we had a lower threshold and no coat-tailing shenanigans. Even without coat-tailing there remains the potential for blocs to make tiny gains by way of electorate deals, but it would ensure the end of manifest unfairnesses like the relative ACT / NZ First results in 2008. The reality is that National had the opportunity to do the right thing, and  chose not to for venal self-interested reasons, and are now crying like spoiled brats because their opponents are using it too.

Polity: News from National Comms!

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 40 comments

Rob Salmond at Polity on what has landed in his mail box paid for by your GST and also close to the wrong side the permissible limits of Parliamentary Services funds. Or perhaps this is something for “NZ Taxpayers Union” to moan about wasting taxpayers money with. They won’t of course because they seem to be good little front organisation for Act and Jordan Williams appears to have about as much independence as their beloved slaves. But if you received one, then a complaint seems in order.

Polity: Even non-coattail electorate deals can create unfair advantage

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 21 comments

What of the deals with true minnow parties, like United Future or ACT? If a party is only polling enough to get one seat anyway, does it matter to Parliament overall whether the small party wins an electorate or its client big party wins it instead? The answer is “possibly, yes,” because we can never be sure which party ultimately loses a seat to accommodate the new minnow party in a 120 seat parliament. Say a Epsom deal as a test case

Polity: A paucity of vision?

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 68 comments

Hey, we won’t get in the way of a good stoush on the net about Labour’s policies, in fact we will encourage it. Here is Rob Salmond’s response to Idiot Savant’s post at No Right Turn. We’d also suggest that people look at Mike Smith’s post from this morning and last night (that probably has the nuttier conspiracy theorists going by now) for a third point of view.

Comments please…

Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 47 comments

Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%. It is after the Budget and ended before the Banks stuff. Most is probably the post-budget spike. But the government parties are in a lot worse position than they were before the 2011 election.

Polity: Meanwhile, in Bomber-land

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 169 comments

Last week’s developments around Internet MANA have caused much conversation on the left in New Zealand. Some of that conversation has been constructive, strategic, and forward-thinking. And then there is Bomber:…. Whose analysis is designed to split the left, not unify it; and the recommendations would help the left lose, not win. Top work.

Polity: Dotcom’s $3 million donation

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 132 comments

Kim Dotcom has shaken up the election with a claim his new Internet Party will have a $3 million war chest. The big questions are: is this kind of donation good for democracy, and are left-leaning campaigners hypocrites for accepting it? The answers are respectively yes and no. A politician’s job is to campaign within the rules as they currently stand. They owe no duty to provide their opponents with advantage by pre-emptively limiting their own campaigns.

Polity: The young ones

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 7 comments

Rob Salmond at Polity looks at what our young have to look forward to in 2019  with National’s hands-off housing screwup. How an average family would fare under National’s do-nothing approach to the housing crisis then?

Polity: Madness: Our house

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 24 comments

How an average family would fare under National’s do-nothing approach to the housing crisis? Not very well. Even at the Treasury forecasts in the budget (which seem highly optimistic), this median New Zealand family, is projected by Treasury to have their disposable income go backwards over the next five “rock star” years. That is a disgrace

Polity: Key: Pathological liar about tax

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 30 comments

John Key is clearly lying about tax again. He claims that most of “all nett tax” is paid for by the wealthy. As usual he ignores the 15% GST tax, the various sales taxes on things like petrol, and the many other sales and consumption taxes. GST and other consumption taxes are largely paid for by the not wealthy. Which is why they were raised to pay for National’s tax cuts for the wealthy.

Polity: Budget 2014: Over-promise. Under-deliver.

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 40 comments

Earlier this week I predicted the Budget would be Labour-lite. I was right, but only in part. By far the biggest disappointment is in housing. The government signalled help for home buyers would be a highlight in the Budget. A few pathetic morsels isn’t a highlight. This will make next to no difference to the housing affordability crisis. First home buyers aren’t $3,500 short of a house. They are hundreds of thousands short, because there aren’t nearly enough homes.

Polity: Key – “Meh. Maybe I lied to Parliament.”

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 39 comments

Misleading parliament is serious. If it happens, MPs are supposed to make a stand-alone statement to the House about what they said, why it was wrong, and what they should have said instead. Key didn’t do that at all. He just inserted a pathetic “meh” concession into an answer to a question. And the speaker diminished parliament by letting him get away with it.

Polity: Economic plans compared

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 9 comments

Labour looks at increasing jobs, wage growth, and having the government run surpluses. National looks at a 1% wage growth after inflation after years of falling real wages and no drop in real unemployment as being a sign of a healthy economy? Yeah right. Most of the growth in the economy is simply passing wage-earners by. It is going elsewhere. That is National’s legacy: strong growth for the fortunate few, lagging and insipid growth for everyone else

Polity: Trevett wrong on polls

Written By: notices and features
Date published: - 33 comments

The activists and very often the geeks of the local political system hang around blogs. They crunch numbers and sample opinions. Like Rob at Polity, we’re always kind of amazed when we read the type of misinformation and outright bullshit that Claire Trevett wrote this weekend about internal polling inside parties. That the subsequent events virtually never seem to back up the claims of the gullible political press gallery people who make them, also never seems to get them to realize that they have been suckered again for political advantage. They must just like biting the hooks.