Yesterday, John Key lied to Parliament. He made a very specific claim about a set of official documents, and those same documents show clearly that the claim was false. If Key is anywhere near Wellington today, he simply has to come to the House to correct his answer. Deeply embarrassing that may be, but he cannot allow such blatant untruths to stand uncorrected.
Rob Salmond at Polity just saved me from having to write something like this post explaining economic basics to Steven Joyce. Joyce demonstrated again why his tenure at MoBIE has been a failure for the overall economy. He fixates on one thing like the business selling milk powder to the exclusion of the overall picture. In part that is why we have neither expanding innovation or employment in our economy at present. He is a good tactical politician. But he is a fool on strategy.
If you are going to demand that everyone else be a team player within Labour, accommodating in the caucus views they do not agree with, you can’t then turn around and refuse to be a team player in a Labour-led government with another party whose views you may not agree with. Either everyone is a team player, or nobody is. Shane Jones included.
I think the pundits misjudge Peters. I think he wants a major, polity-based legacy in the 2014-2017 term, as well as baubles. Only the left can offer this. With the left, Peters can be The Man who Saved the Power Companies. National cannot compete with that. Which gives everyone on the left, including the Greens, some leverage. So count me out of the consensus that Winston in Cabinet means no Greens in Cabinet. I see a feasible three-way deal on the horizon.
Rob Salmond’s take on the boundary changes announced last week. In a MMP election system the actual electoral boundaries usually only really matter to a few MPs. It isn’t likely to make much of a difference unless National manages to have a cup of tea with a party with enough electoral muscle to get more than a single MP into the house and an electorate’s voters think this matters. After the John Banks/Act debacle who’d be moronic enough to think that electorate seats in a list do matter? Apart from our silly first-past-the-post stand-in-man for David Farrar of course…
This is very good stuff. Having a tax break for R&D work has always been a no-brainer, and it is great to see it reconfirmed. Adding an accelerated depreciation scheme for new plant is a helpful addition. And partnering with more local firms for more locally-sourced government procurement makes perfect sense, too. Another no brainer for parties – like Labour – that actually care about local employment.
The Political Anorak News is full of the $5,000-a-plate fundraiser for the Maori Party hosted by John Key at the Northern Club in Auckland… Nothing illegal about this at all, or really anything immoral either. Key wants to help the Maori Party help Key, so he’s putting in an appearance. No problem. These kinds of events make it crystal clear that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for a National government.
Last night, via One News, the public became aware that the Greens had proposed a pre-election coalition with Labour, but Labour had rejected it. While the Greens’ offer is nothing unusual internationally, New Zealand’s comparatively fair electoral system doesn’t provide Labour much incentive to accept it. Which, I think, makes Labour’s rejection of the proposal much less noteworthy.
It isn’t a new ploy from National or its supporters. “Mortgage rate rises under National: Good. Mortgage rate rises under Labour: Dreadful!”. I’ve seen David Farrar argue both that a recession is the perfect time to cut taxes because it stimulates the economy, and a recovery is also the perfect time to cut taxes to provide a dividend. It reminds me of that old chestnut, most recently applied to Don Brash: “The answer is tax cuts. What is the question again?”
David Farrar often bullshits on numbers. Does he have what appears to be a maths block that makes him so wrong so often (like Bill English)? Or is it just that he obeys orders like the good National puppet tools that he and Cameron Slater appear to be? Anyway, Rob Salmond pulls him up on a few obvious and significiant flaws in his ‘analysis’. DPF didn’t allow for people lying – just like he does
There was an Audrey Young piece in the Herald yesterday, in which John Key talks about Labour’s plan to increase eligibility for free Early Childhood Education. So Key thinks this policy will cost at least ten times as much as Labour does. That’s a very big claim. But Andrey did not appear to ask for his sums, she just printed Key’s figures without comment. That was a pity because John Key’s figures are a bare-faced lie and are quite impossible.
The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls. National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.
Rob Salmond looks at the Internet Party’s launch and rather shallow vision. But is this politics?
“So the Internet Party had a good launch short term, but its longer term problems with policy and vision remain.”
Rob Salmond’s view on the Internet Party launch today.
“Today is the day the Internet Party, which amusingly abbreviates to IP, will actually launch. More importantly, today marks 146 days until Kim Dotcom winds up the Internet Party because it isn’t polling near 5% and has no deals with others to secure itself an electorate seat.”
Just when you think that Hekia Parata couldn’t make more of a shambolic mess of the Kohanga Reo review, it turns out that she could and did. Rob Salmond at Polity (and Audrey Young of the Herald) has a look at it.
Rob at Polity points out National’s intensely unstrategic view about investments and asset sales. In a down market where all the indications said “buy,” National sold our assets for a pittance, and refused to invest in the Super Fund. The Super Fund has been making returns of 21%, far exceeding the Crown’s cost of borrowing. And National will only start investing in the Super Fund when equities are expensive again. It is almost as if they wanted to waste taxpayers funds eh?
The news this morning has all kinds of finger pointing between Hekia Parata, Derek Fox, John Key, the Kohanga Reo trust board, and others.
Why are so many people pointing fingers all over the place? Because everyone involved has screwed up one way or another.
You’d have to ask if skycity asked the government to get rid of this turbulent critic? After all their brief is to reduce problem gambling.
“Justice Minister Judith Collins’ “cup of tea on the way to the airport” at her friend Stone Shi’s company in Shanghai involved a 30km detour in the opposite direction…”. That’s pretty embarrassing for Collins. Caught, red-handed, again, lying in the Parliament and misleading your boss. I wonder what he will do now?
Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the draft Green party list. “The Greens have released their draft party list today, in advance of a party member STV vote. The top 20 is…”
Here’s a pretty astounding graphic from the US about cellphone vs landline use. The US is a few years ahead of New Zealand on mobile adoption and decoupling from landlines, but Rob Salmond thinks that within 5 years we will see these kinds of proportions in New Zealand. This will make current pollsters’ policies of refusing to call cell phones hugely problematic…
The Orivida mess smells worse by the day for National. Yesterday, it turned out the Cabinet Office’s advice clearing Judith Collins of any wrongdoing had failed to even look at the most important piece of the evidence – the Chinese text of Orivida’s website. It had to rush out new advice to cover that off, which Key still won’t release. That is why today John Key will spend much of question time dancing on the head of a pin…
Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at why National surprisingly announced the election date yesterday. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that it was a deflection from something. Rob thinks that National was worried about where a look at donations to National’s campaign would lead. He may be right, as in the past National has had some legally and morally dubious donation regimes
The government has imposed mandatory minimum pass rates of tertiary education. If Universities (and Polytechs, Waananga, and others) do not meet a government-imposed minimum pass rate (which ratchet up every year, and may go as high as 85%), then the institution risks losing some of its government funding. That is crazy town.
Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought. While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.
There’s no skating around it – Labour didn’t have a good last week. And the biggest shame is that beltway errors have been allowed to eclipse real progress on issues that actually matter to New Zealand families. The lack of direct relevance in the errors does not matter, because these issues matter for perceptions. If Labour is perceived as bumbling, or as lacking self-awareness, that will certainly be reflected at the ballot box. But there were a few bright spots.
Yesterday, Rob Salmond offered Chris Trotter a bet based on Chris writing an over-excited interpretation of an online poll. Who writes posts on the basis of online polls of less than 400 people? It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash. Really!
John Key makes up the figures during a session of parliament for the expected unemployment in coming years when he took office. The apparent reason is to make his governments piss-poor performance running the economy look better. Of course there is that problem that Rob Salmond can link to the December 2008 projections from the Treasury which show John Key to be lying (yet again).
There has been some discussion recently about whether we should tax fizzy drinks as a threat to public health. Otago University public health people say yes. Various anti-tax groups say no. Here’s Rob Salmond’s 2c worth.
Some interesting arguments
Rob Salmond looks at the implications of the Internet party failing to poll 5% and DotCom throws his support behind another party. A bidding war from competing parties? For the left this would be being both hypocritical and a bit icky. One of the reasons they worked hard to make election funding fairer in the late 2000s was to limit the ability of individuals seeking to buy government policy for cash. The right disagreed but is now caught by their own logic that it couldn’t happen.
Rob Salmond at Polity highlights John Key’s naivety in politics. It isn’t hard because he is a poor amateur and largely unskilled. If he ever raised his eyes from golf and photo-ops for long enough to exercise his brain, then he could look at the governments of Sweden, Norway, and Denmark
Somehow questions about how Metiria Turei wearing clothes from expensively ravaged visage of Judith Collins seem somewhat hypocritical. But Polity politely asks the second obvious question…
John Key was careful in his speech. He and his government have helped themselves and their affluent mates while screwing everyone else. It is pretty clear who has been getting the benefits – since 2010 just the households with at least a hundred thousand dollars income. The bigger the household income, the more National helps. John Key – a liar with numbers.
This post by polity certainly adds some grist to the debate on unconditional basic income (UBI) and kids. It looks at the example provided by the Cherokee in a natural quasi-experiment in North Carolina on how kids grow up. Being generous and acting early pays off.
Cool-yet-depressing finding on why some people change their mind on climate change from one day to the next.
It can be summarised by saying Republicans in the US are scientific morons, and many Americans decide based on the previous days weathers.
These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface… National is up less than a point over Labour + Greens
