Maori Party Co-Leader, Marama Fox, is playing hardball over Nick Smith latest attempts to weasel out of commitments on the deeply flawed RMA changes that National has spent the last few years trying to find any support for in Parliament. The bill is crap. The Maori party should just drop it regardless how many baubles they think they will get from it.
Rob Salmond at Polity: DPF and Chris Bishop have conspired to come up with a new canard-of-distraction de jour. Today’s trope: “Labour are the conversatives, National the progressives, and Labour is the party of No.”
Rob had a couple of great posts on National & Housing yesterday, as they are all over the place on it. Still trying to point the finger at Helen Clark because average house prices in Auckland rose $219,000 in the 9 years of the last Labour government; but it’s no longer crisis after a further $313,000 rise in 7 years of National.
“The shrillness of the “hey look over there!” narrative coming from the right-hand-side shows just how deep the embarrassment within National is at the Northland campaign and result.”
The electoral commission’s roll solution does two good things, and one regrettable thing. It would rule out misuse of the rolls for debt collection / product marketing purposes. Good – that isn’t what the electoral roll is for. It protects party/candidates access to electronic copies. But it continues to privilege them above other political advocates – bad!
Key won’t take any action over Simon Bridges’ clear breach (excellent work by Rob Salmond at Polity) of the Cabinet Manual. So, might as well burn the thing, at least for the remainder of this government’s term. Key has no intention of being held to account, or holding his ministers to account, by or for anything at all.
A sudden enthusiasm for local infrastructure projects on the eve of a tight by-election. What a remarkable coincidence! I wonder whether the cost/benefit ratios on these bridges are up to scratch? Last year National bribed people in the general election. OIA time
I’ve been getting tired of the fantasy elections that some political commentators seem to enjoy playing. Currently the fantasises is in Northland, with the same old tiresome lines. It is a pity that most of those playing this game don’t ever seem to think about the behaviours of real voters, real candidates, and real parties.
National counterattack line on Iraq is now out and about, courtesy of National’s tester and parrot of lines – National pollster David Farrar at Kiwiblog. It consists of two contradictory lines about Labour. Also neither line is true. But they are just there for the ‘journalists’ to mindlessly repeat in the evening news.
Rob Salmond at Polity on Key – “Is he deluded, or is he being deliberately misleading?”…
Rob Salmond has a bite at Eric Campton’s rather ideologically naive ideas about balancing up the GST playing ground between local and overseas retailers. Rather than not doing anything about it as Eric suggests and leaving local retailers flailing. Why not just make it simple as local collection of GST?
Rob Salmond has a look at the new Labour lineup. “…a consistent display of clarity and unity and being on New Zealanders’ side is what is needed from Labour right now”. Gives it an 8 out of 10
David Farrar seldom seems to actually read the reports fully before he starts inventing meaningless canards. A theoretical equality of opportunity is irrelevant when your parent’s lack of disposable income is the major determinant of your own education and opportunities. We waste the opportunities from peoples abilities because of income inequalities.
Poor old Tony Abbott. Thrust into the limelight of hosting the world’s biggest economic meeting, and his true colours come out for everyone to see. Not a happy weekend for Tony Abbott and, by extension, for Australia. Perhaps “bumpkin” would be a better title
Prime Minister John Key, in his capacity as Prime Minister, promised no asset sales this term in the run up to the last election. But now they are selling assets – state houses.
Now that the battle for election night ratings is over for another three years, here is a table for your entrail-reading pleasure showing the three biggest parties’ vote shares in a few different geographic / demographic segments.
If a politics editor at a major National newspaper doesn’t know basic statistics, then you’d have to ask how she retains her job? Having a jonolist apparently deliberately distort the meaning of a poll that is taken, and whose results was not linked to in the article, is a complete travesty.
Nationals hypothetical tax cut package has not gone down well. People do not appear to like the fact that it is small, hypothetical, and irresponsible, all at once.This is what you get when you have a prime minister so weakly desperate for public approval that they make up policy by accident and then push that poor decision through their cabinet and caucus.
Rob Salmond looks at the Big Lie technique coming from the right and being gormlessly swallowed by some pundits. That Labour and the left aren’t talking about policy. They have been brimming over with policy. The right have vague possible ideas. Pundits are too obsessed in dirty politics to look at the detail of actual policies.
Rob says: Key was either complicit in the SIS document release to Whaleoil, or he has a gross dereliction of duty. Let’s hear what his answers are to that.
National’s own fine print takes us from “you can get up to $20,000!” to, at best, “11% of qualifying couples get up to $20,000.” Ouch…. Typical National. Long on glitz. Long on smoke. Long on mirrors. Short on actually helping people.
Here’s a tweet from Felix Marwick this morning that blows a big hole in John Key’s denials about not knowing about the strangely rapid OIS releases from the SIS to Cameron Slater. What is the bet that he is going to argue that he had a sloppy memory lapse – just like the one that he keeps accusing Phil Goff about? Updated: Phil Goff’s response.
John Key has been running a pretty simple diversion strategy over the past week asserting that Labour knew about Hager’s book (they didn’t), that they aren’t interested in policy (our mailbox is full of their policies), and that the public will ignore the book (our stats are skyhigh). He is a loser. Rob Salmond puts his view.
The use of clandestine SIS files as a weapon of partisan politics is needs to be investigated. John Key or his office discovered classified SIS files that were embarrassing to Phil Goff, got them declassified, then immediately told a right-wing blogger to seek those same newly-declassified files under the OIA, all as a means of smearing a political opponent.
Steven Joyce is asking about how Labour can afford their policies. Half of the money is what National is planning to spend unwisely. The rest is from documented increases in revenue in a fiscal plan. Unlike National’s mythic surplus, these are solid values. They will produce a solid surplus to pay down National’s debt.
You really have to ask what journalists are trained in. Clearly not learning about existing party policies. Some reporters managing to miss that Labour has been planning to extend Paid Parental Leave for 3 years.
Rob Salmond looks at the recent shifts in media opinion pieces. Perhaps the National strategy of getting the house to rise too early has backfired. It appears to be giving opposition parties more room to showcase their policy, more room for National to showcase its arrogance, and more time for the polls to close.
Rob Salmond has noticed recently that National likes to talk a lot about everyone else’s ideas, but it prefers not to discuss its own.
To say that ACT’s new company tax policy is complete and utter drivelling crap would be a bit of an understatement.
The National Government’s $212 million plan has Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee explicitly admitting that it is a massive pork-barreling for government MPs with public funds, and explicitly tells people to piss off if they don’t like it.
National has all-but confirmed today that there no deal for Colin Craig in East Coast Bays, or for any other Conservative. This was the right thing for them to do, for one simple reason. This decision came down to simple maths. If Key thought the Conservatives could muster double the votes that a decision to back the Conservatives would cost National in the centre-ground, then he should do the deal. If not, he should not. All the stuff about Winston running was a bit of a late sideshow, as the decision had likely already been made.
For TVNZ to say that Mike Hosking is professional and would act in an unbiased fashion in leaders debates is daft. Mike Hosking has made his opinion of Labour quite apparent over the years. Hosking has a reputation around the left of being a ill-prepared moronic dickhead far more concerned about his car than the people of this country. Rob Salmond’s reaction in this post is going to be pretty typical. TVNZ obviously want to the debate to be about Hoskings rather than the debaters.
The overall strength of the status quo bloc at around 54%, and the strength of the change bloc a little under 46%. The picture ain’t pretty.
The British public estimates the poor pay around 24% of their income in tax, while the rich pay around 35%. The truth is very different. Once you add up all taxes, the poorest actually pay around 43% of their income in tax, compared to only 35% for the rich. We have the same perceptual issues in NZ especially if you listen to the whining of Kiwiblog. Here the poorest pay the same tax rate as the rich, and the middle classes have the lower tax rate.
The Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos polls out overnight are both bad news for the cause of positive change in New Zealand. Labour is below 25% in both polls, which is disaster territory if is solidifies. The potential coalitions of the left look just as bad. This doesn’t look like a change in the left-right split. The effects of the National / NZ Herald /Liu smear campaign feeding through fits the usual polling lag time period of about 4-6 weeks.
In the cartoon world of Economics 101, there is perfect supply, perfect competition, perfect demand, perfect information and prices for labour (and everything else) are set at their true market values. The real world is somewhat different.
