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7:14 pm, May 9th, 2026 - 55 comments
Categories: election 2026, greens, labour, nz first, te pāti māori -
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Two mainstream media articles point to the precarity of the centre left this election.
One from Glenn McConnell at Stuff gives an analysis of Te Pāti Māori and whether internal issues will affect its ability to hold the Māori seats. Pressure is also likely to be put on Chris Hipkins about whether TPM are a suitable coalition partner. The right will of course run lines about instability and the scary Marries, and perceptions of competency are a significant part of how New Zealand elections play out, but the MSM doesn’t have a good history of understanding and reporting on Māori politics and I’d like to see analysis from Māori media.
The other piece is from Marc Dalder at the Newsroom, where he points out that the left may lose the election if TPM don’t return to parliament. Labour have just said they intend to win all the Māori seats. Fair enough, that’s always been their position. However,
It all makes Te Pāti Māori look like a messy partner for Labour. Hipkins said last year the party needed to sort itself out before he would consider working with it and declined to say whether it had done so when asked on Wednesday.
It has also prompted the party to slip from regularly polling above the 5 percent threshold to fluctuating between 1 and 3 percent. The latest 1News-Verian poll showed that, if Te Pāti Māori won at least one seat, the Opposition would hold 62 seats between them (or more if Te Pāti Māori wins three or more seats and creates an overhang).
If, however, Te Pāti Māori misses out on all seven seats, the poll delivers a hung Parliament, with Labour and the Greens on 60 seats and the coalition splitting the other 60 between them.
Again, I’d like to see Māori media analysis on this, but we should be thinking about this hard in what we campaign for.
The centre left have no affection for Te Pāti Māori. But it’s worth remembering that one potential outcome for the election is a Labour/Green coalition with confidence and supply from TPM, rather than a three way coalition. To my mind this is a far better outcome than a rerun of 2017 with a Labour/New Zealand First coalition with confidence and supply from the Greens.
Well, we want them!
I think Māori, and NZ are better off with TPM in parliament. We could end up with a L/G government and TPM on teh cross benches and that's not necessarily a bad outcome for the left, or Māori, or TPM.
No point talking about the Maori Party until we deal with the first presumption in the post: that the Greens will go into a coalition with Labour.
It's well time for the Greens to actually commit to going into an actual coalition with Labour. They never have.
Why?
To show both the electorate and the Governor General that there is an alternative government that is superior to the current one.
National+NZF+ACT are an established coalition and the public and GG can see that this is effective government.
The job of the collective opposition is to assert that there is a superior one.
Showing the Governor General is something that happens after the election and the vote has been counted.
That's why you need to do both.
Are you taking the piss?
The public can see that this is a Coalition of cockups.
Which is why they are steadily declining in the polls, and the economy is heading for a cliff, even without the Orange Turds Epstein war.
Which is also why Peters and Seymour are trying to convince the gullible they were not a big part in it.
But, Labour, so far, is not offering the Greens much they can support.
I would like to see a Labour/Greens coalition, because it is much better than the alternative. But, if Labour balk at the fence again, with just a softening of the current policies, without really improving much, similar to UK Labour, I can see they will also be a one term Government.
Peters could well do a Farage, and sneak through the gap.
Weka's post questions the need for the Maori Party. But as soon as you as the same question of the Green Party their supporters fall apart like crying children.
All the Greens have to do is get 11% and commit to a coalition.
Seriously it ain't that hard.
If Labour agreed, in coalition negotiations, to a Wealth Tax per the Greens' manifesto, they would join a coalition with Labour before lunchtime.
Unfortunately Labour are timid status quo peddlars.Hipkins is an incrementalist.
Hard to parse why you are running this line.
1. Have Labour committed to a coalition with the Greens? What would happen if they go a majority? would they reneg on the commitment? No party commits ahead of the final vote and post-election negotiations. What they do do is indicate who they will consider. I expect both Labour and the Greens to do this, but it's not 2017.
2. Obviously the GP will go into coalition with Labour. They're not going to go into coalition with NACT, and they're not going to force a new election. Your line is a nonsense.
I am not sure I share your confidence. The coalition as a block isn't really losing support and has over the 12 months increased.
A poll of polls isn't evidence of anything. But what it does show is this election is going to be a tough one to win.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/poll-of-polls-predicts-who-will-win-election-and-suggests-margin-of-victory-is-growing/premium/U524UGAPZBGSXEXOOUI64KMIS4/
wut?
The Greens wanted to work with Labour to change the government for a long time. It finally happened in 2016 when Labour and the Greens signed a MoU and Andrew Little spoke at the Green Party AGM, where they announced their plan to change the government. And they did 18 months later.
From memory, the MoU allows both parties to campaign independently.
In terms of the Greens saying this year what they would do post-election, they can't make a commitment because any plan for coalition has to go through the members (delegate vote). It's also not possible without seeing Labour Party policy.
If the Greens can't commit to actually being in a coalition after this many terms being fed policy table scraps, they don't deserve to be in government at all.
That's ahistorical, you're just making it up now.
Has Labour committed to being in a coalition with the Greens this year? How will they do that if they need NZF to form government as well?
At the same time, Labour needs to emphatically rule out going into coalition with NZ First – thus making Winnie irrelevant!
After all, if Labour won't have him, a vote for Winnie is a vote for the Natz – ugh!
Agreed. Do it now.
All Labour needs to do at the moment is to re-emphasise that a vote for NZ First is a vote for the same shambolic lot that’s responsible for the current mess we’re in. Let Winston and Shane dig their own hole deeper, together with Luxon and Seymour, and let the Coalition fight among themselves – three bullies fighting with each other.
+100 Veitchy. Peters and Jones are poison.
TPM would have to get real before any further traction happens. No sign of it. Complacency is evident on that front, I reckon. A reconciliation is long overdue.
Here's a thought: someone could hallucinate a common platform for an alternative govt to the current lot. Yes I know Labour would freak out, but who cares? Someone has to be the adult in the room. There's an eternal reason folks always say necessity is the mother of invention: the option of adapting to circumstance. Survival necessitates it.
Although I'm tempted to agree with Ad's point, I suspect the Greens would take the view that Labour haven't given them or the voters anything worth committing to. Labour would respond by saying "Hey, we're still sleep-walking. Do you mind?"
The wisest answer, IMHO, comes from Graeme Edgeler:
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/07/can-labour-put-an-end-to-te-pati-maori-and-does-it-want-to/#comment-617370
On the question of Maori strategiic voting, I would suggest that the best policy would be that all that are able, register on the Maori roll and vote TPM for their electorate vote and then use their party vote to back whatever party is their favourite.
A party vote for TPM under this scenario would be a bit pointless but TPM electorate voters are in the unique position that ACT was in when their party vote was <5% but on steroids because they have access to 7 electorate seats.
The above means that Maori roll voters have 2 votes that affect the makeup of parliament just as ACT voters did in the past but only in Epsom.
I think that is a good strategy Sublim. and strategy as well as feelings are so important now. What would Ratana be doing I wonder?
"it’s worth remembering that one potential outcome for the election is a Labour/Green coalition with confidence and supply from TPM, rather than a three way coalition"
Labour should broadcast this message strongly. It ticks all the boxes of the Left-voter.
The Greens will form a coalition with Labour; Labour will form a coalition with The Greens. Te Pati Māori will provide confidence and supply willingly.
The Greens have assimilated and accommodated enough kaupapa from Te Pati Māori to ensure mana Māori, mana Tiriti is strengthened and embedded.
Now, the Right can/will scaremonger about Te Pati Māori as much as they wish, but the air has been let out of that balloon already.
What it means though is, the pustular Nat/ACT/NZF coalition, desperate to save its mangey hide, will pour its resources into destroying the reputation and mana of The Greens.
Next up on the political calendar – hit-job after hit-job on Te Pati Kakariki!
In my opinion.
Excellent clear descriptive statement Mercurio. "What it means though is, the pustular Nat/ACT/NZF coalition, desperate to save its mangey hide,'
Study the article by Dr Rawiri Taonui in the link posted by Incognito. Rawiri has an excellent first-hand grasp of where Māori are at. This link:
https://drrawiritaonui.substack.com/p/te-pati-maori-delay-reinstating-kapa
I am a rank-and-file member of Te Pāti Māori with considerable campaign experience and getting monthly updates from leaders at branch hui. The Party isn't saying much publicly as the Court's decision on Mariameno's reinstatement could still be revisited if she so chooses. She isn't engaging with her colleagues at all and has done several media interviews on her situation but the leaders haven't responded. Least said, soonest mended. No point in engaging with political media our voters don't follow who misconstrue much of what we do.
What mainstream media consistently get wrong is that it's not who Māori will vote for but whether they will vote that most often decides the outcome. And David Seymouir has done Māori a huge service by riling up large numbers of us big-time. Some straws in the wind
Most of that information is regularly overlooked by political journalists.
I believe Te Pāti Māori will win enough seats to be a serious contender in the October election.
That's heartening Alan. I think TPM will do well this election, and that voters on the Māori roll voting strategically will help the left, but co-governance scaremongering did some damage in 2023, so expect right-whinging wreckers to be at it again. Imho, TPM and Labour should be committed to working constructively and progressively together after the election – not really that scary a prospect at all, in the great scheme of things.
excellent, thank-you.
Alan…."expect a big increase in party votes".
As discussed above, it would be silly for Maori voters to party vote for TPM if they want to get rid of this government.
Tactically they should vote for the various TPM electorate candidates (hopefully TPM will win all 7 Maori electorates) but party vote for Labour or the Greens.
This tactical voting will result in an overhang of Maori seats, This increases the total number of seats won by Labour, the Greens and TPM.
Seems feasible in theory but which Maori leader is capable of advising all tribes to do it?? Willie has the brains but dunno if he has the smarts (paradox). Transcending Labour's sheeple ethos is as simple as pointing to the open gate but doesn't mean any of them are capable of using it.
This feels like an attempt to soft launch a “vote for Labour is a vote for TPM” style attack.
That may work to galvanise centre-right voters, but I suspect it is already priced in for most people intending to vote for parties of the left.
And frankly, it is far more believable that Chris Hipkins could manage a coalition competently than Christopher Luxon.
TPM is a potential coalition partner. They are also their own party and responsible for managing themselves. If they form part of the next government, there will be the normal to-and-fro of negotiation and tradeoffs. But that does not mean Labour needs to become emotionally hostage to every TPM controversy or media cycle. They will either return to Parliament, or they won’t. There is no point overthinking it.
If the centre-left spends the next six months getting inside its own head and over-strategising around every attack line, headline, or bit of coalition messaging, it will never get anywhere. It just needs to play its own game.
The real task for Labour is to project competence, coherence, and confidence:
a credible economic programme, disciplined leadership, clear priorities, and a government people believe can run the country well.
Because at the end of the day, all a Hipkins-led government really needs to do is look more stable, more experienced, and less prone to bizarre ideological detours than the current coalition.
Thankfully, that is a fairly low bar.
The MSM articles? Labour's positioning?
The articles. Sorry, should have made that clearer.
I think it's been an obvious attack line for the coalition for the better part of a year now. I'm surprised nobody seems to have made a plan for it.
QFT
On one side, there are Labour and the Green Party, and on the other side there might be a “new tikanga-based iwi-aligned political party to contest the Māori electorates.” (see link in Alan’s comment @ 7 https://thestandard.nz/does-the-centre-left-need-te-pati-maori-to-win-the-election/#comment-2061891)
"The real task for Labour is to project competence, coherence, and confidence:
a credible economic programme, disciplined leadership, clear priorities, and a government people believe can run the country well."
And this is what Labour are doing now and will expand upon over the remaining period. I think they are solid.
I agree. All they have to do is not shit the bed.
Especially if they hope to share it post-election.
Te Pati Maori should be ruled out completely.
They are corrupt. (You don't have to look too deep into the financial dealings of John Tamihere to figure this out.)
They do not accept Parliamentary sovereignty over Maori as citizens of New Zealand (following their 2024 declaration).
They are bullies to their own Members of Parliament. (Even with court orders to reinstate MPs they simply ignore them.)
They are racist.
In their years in Parliament they have achieved absolutely nothing.
And in a coalition with tight numbers the would most certainly bring down a government.
"They are…"
Sound like each of the present coalition parties, meaning they're not outside of what's palatable to the voting public 🙂
Let them develop their own shape (they are doing this already) and accomodate them as fully as possible.
They won't pull the Left down if the other Left parties build themselves up to be as strong as they possibly can. Accomodations can happen post-election win.
Did you read Marc Dalder's piece? Because of MMP, if TPM are ruled out, the right might get to form government again.
Not quite sure where you're coming from Ad – TPM MPs are part of our Parliament.
Some decisions and legislation of our CoC govt (by and for the sorted) must be right up there with the most overtly anti-Māori politicking this century – God knows why.
https://www.facebook.com/61555170705590/posts/albert-einsteinthree-great-forces-rule-the-world-stupidity-fear-and-greedeinstei/122252959682172356/
There's more than one way to view the evolving concept of Parliamentary sovereignty.
"They [Pākehā opposed to power-sharing] maintain that the sovereignty of the Crown in Aotearoa is indivisible — but this perception of sovereignty as a singular indivisible structure is essentially a white claim of their dominance as rightful, with no possibility of alternatives."
Yes and it runs deeper than that. Those [Pākehā opposed to power-sharing] feel it in their bones, know it in their hearts that they lord it, intellectually and spiritually, over Māori (Maories) and while they put up with moves to give them more responsibility, it's now time to extinguish that proposal once and for all, especially in light of the lead being shown by Seymour, Peters and Luxon in putting Māori stuff back in the flax-basket where it belongs; silly demands getting in the way of economic progress they all need.
Well Ad I think you have stated your POV thoroughly. Now how about sitting back and let the site argue other points, Because you are sounding so definite and negative, there isn't room for further discussion. And there needs to be.
Na nz doesn't need a separatist party,
Had to listen to my teen (who's greind group is mostly mosri) and thier freind discuss how my teen can't go to a local Maori only event, pretty shitty thing to hear and very hard to not have a knee jerk rant about.
Your teen couldn't attend an event (?) so you're calling for the end of Te Pati Māori?
Seems fair /sarc
Tpm would take us a lot further down the track to a troubled future, , you huggy guilt ridden lefties are blind,
How so, bwaghorn? What dreadful proposals have they made?
"Us"? Is it only "huggy guilt ridden lefties" who can see the troubled track NZ’s been on?
From DMK:
Anyone who hasn't already realised it, had better start understanding that colonisation is happening to ALL of us from a number of sources – ie tech extending over us like a fog, citizenship being extended to big payers, our goods such as education, along with working rights and some residencies I think, to university students (all the Indian ones are aiming at MBA). Everyone else in uni of any race or creed is either doing law, tech- computer engineering and/or PR communications.
TPM would take us a lot further down the track to a troubled future you say bwh. Well that's good, it extends our future from what we probably have as of now. Along the way we might be able to build a united NZ governance, that has flexible sides allowing for the occasional ding-dong (what's Maori for light fight?). Always to be followed by a hangi before retiring and not of each other!
In case we needed another reason to avoid this party …
… after having taken her TPM party to the High Court and winning, to force them to reinstate her, instead she leaves and forms her own party.
Rebel MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi quitting Te Pāti Māori to start own party | Stuff
You have to go back to Alamein Kopu to find this scale of deliberate destabilisation. Thank God we are seeing this mess unfold while they are in Opposition.
Te Pati Maori are better off with Kapa Kingi gone she is trouble as is her son. I believe TPM will win at least three electoral seats (possibly one maybe 2 more) and party votes. Setting up a new party is not easy, and KK will find this out as will Takuta Ferris wining his Te Tai Tonga seat back after all his hoha.
Hay macurio, are you fine that kids grow learning that race devidrs us?
Hey, bwaghorn, that's what they would be learning now…if it wasn't for the woke teachers who strive to present a woken view to all students – this "anti-woke/un-woke/asleep" coalition needs and yearns-for the very division you describe. They are making you (and many others) feel insecure and anxious about … sharing, co-operating, co-governing. I have kids (adult) and grandkids who have to negotiate this maze and while I'm not concerned for them (their parents are fully awake) I am aware that their classmates are perhaps not so well supported.
Your thoughts?
There wouldn't be many people in nz that hold this government in more contepmt than me, dirty politics ,and corruption needs removing root and stem . Just so you know where I am politically.
My thoughts havnt changed , the hugging up to those that seek separatism of Maori politics , and demand we bow to the religion of Maori tikanga are dangerous, embedding a victim hood mentality into those Maori that are struggling or lost or damaged is foolish.
Waste not one cent or bit of effort on anything that isn't improving reword outcomes in work,health housing and education.