After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.
It’s pretty clear: the Greens have managed to hold on to the massive gain they made during the last election campaign, largely at Labour’s expense as it imploded. Labour’s back to its pre-campaign level, at National’s expense. Lab+Green=Nat or thereabouts but the Left needs a good 5% more from the Right to feel confident. So, this is not the time to be listening to John Armstrong’s advice.
David Shearer’s weekly e-newsletter, this week on the Auckland tornado, and the emergency response.
We’re happy to post similar newsletters from other opposition leaders – our email is on our contact page.
Auckland has been hit by tornado’s again (last time was in May 2011). Several people are dead. NZ Herald reports Storm brings death […]
Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to […]
Paddy Gower looked fit to burst with excitement over ‘Greens and Labour fighting over Finance portfolio‘ last night. Of course, the actual quote not so exciting – just Russel Norman saying it was one portfolio that would be the subject of negotiations in the formation of a Lab/Green govt. But it does raise a valid question – who would be ministers in a Lab/Green govt?
Sure, National is still in the mid-40s and Key will back himself to crucify Shearer in the debates, but his own brand is suffering badly. He’s failed on jobs and increasingly being seen as out of touch. So, is making the news for eating a grasshopper really a smart move?
Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.
Re Labour’s housing policy, announced by David Shearer at the Labour Party conference, John Armstrong says: “For the first time in a very long time, Labour has come up with something radical on the policy front which may grab the public’s attention, if not imagination – and which National cannot really get away with copying.”
David Shearer’s weekly e-newsletter, this week on “100% Pure”, climate change and our environmental reputation.
We’re happy to post similar newsletters from other opposition leaders – our email is on our contact page.
Labour may still be well below its 2008 election result, when it was chucked out after 3 terms, but, thanks to the doubling of Greens support, Labour+Green is level pegging with National in the latest Roy Morgan. Add New Zealand First, and the opposition is well clear. Except, that’s not an election winning scenario for the Left.
The relationship between media and politicians in this country has become incestuous and toxic. For much of the time they confine themselves to […]
David Shearer had Key on the back foot today in the House over Labour’s housing policy. Even Speaker Lockwood Smith sat Key down for going on too long and off the point. He had to be rescued by Chief Whip Michael Woodhouse with a patsy question, but the leadership crack it was designed to bring out fell flat too.
Today The Hobbit employment dispute is revived, exposing gaps between principle and practice. Jackson defends his role; some of Labour’s ABC club will attend the premier; John Key-speak weaves a contradictory path of populist nonsense, linking the movie, 100%Pure, 100% Middle-earth and Macdonald’s.
Like everyone else, I find you can get better political analysis from chicken entrails than from Claire Robinson. But it seems she can count and use a ruler and what she discovered is interesting. In last year’s election campaign, the four biggest newspapers featured 138 pictures of Key to 80 of Goff, and Key’s were twice as large on average.
I’m tired of watching the Labour caucus screwing up the left’s chances of winning the treasury benches. I don’t really trust them to be competent to implement any new ideas if they control parliament. And most of their recent ideas are just warmed over ideas from the Greens. The caucus stupidity over the last week has convinced me to eliminate the middle-man and leave the Labour whips to enjoy their busted trophy.
David Shearer’s weekly e-newsletter, this week on Labour’s Conference, and leadership.
We’re happy to post similar newsletters from other opposition leaders – our email is on our contact page.
A Labour Party member writes, praising Labour for the new democratic reforms, and calling for David Shearer to submit his leadership to the new Party selection process: “David Shearer, you need a mandate from this new organisation, not a prop-up from the shards of the old one. Give us this chance to really unite behind you, or your successor, and give you the backing you surely will have earned”.
On the 30th anniversary of the Official Information Act, it’s worth pausing to ask: is it fit for service? Was it ever? Will the government pick up on the Law Commission’s recent recommendations? Will these make things better or worse? Author and investigative journalist Nicky Hager and media lawyer Steven Price will discuss these issues at Connolly Hall, Guildford Terrace, Wellington on Monday 26 November at 5:30pm. All Welcome.
David Cunliffe’s supporters have done him no good. I warned him about this months ago. The latest evidence comes from Greg Presland, spokesman for his electorate committee, going on Morning Report today. There may be a complaint made to the Party, although they haven’t decided yet, and they haven’t yet thought about what grounds there may be. Doesn’t sound that solid to me – I’m not sure they have a toe to stand on let alone a foot. Response to comments added.
So, who won and who lost?
Shearer’s announcement is streaming live on 3 News at 5pm. Shearer has unanimous endorsement as leader. Cunliffe demoted, portfolios removed.
There is a Labour caucus meeting later today where, it is widely reported, Cunliffe is going to be demoted. I understand the temptation for Shearer. When challenged on his leadership he wants to portray the strong leader. But there is a better way. What we need now is reconciliation.
I’m sorry, David Cunliffe, for the part I have played in your downfall. Wait a minute, what?
5:08 am Just asked David Cunliffe the big questions: “Does David Shearer have your full support? How will you vote if the leadership issue is put to the vote in caucus?” He won’t answer me. I ask him again. Still no answer. My cameraman suggests we come back later and try again, when Cunliffe’s awake. We climb out his bedroom window.
At the end of this weekend’s Labour Annual Conference, delegates were happy. Speaking as a delegate, we had made the first and most important changes to the party in its history. But every night, after we got home and turned on the TV or visited a news website (or even some of the blogs), we didn’t see those stories we felt proud about. We saw Patrick Gower and Brook Sabin and Jessica Mutch sticking the camera in David Cunliffe’s face
It was a good productive conference for Labour. The best reaction about David Shearer’s speech and the rank and files reactions to the conference that I observed was probably from Robert Winter, so I have quoted it here. Thanks to the NZLP’s council for letting me attend, and thanks to the working journalists for tolerating me.
The Labour Conference was not ‘acrimonious’. The Party was not ‘split’. A good time was had. Shearer’s speech was fantastic. The Party was rejuvenated. The February vote can’t be brought forward. Labour showed great progressive values. The media showed great beat-up skills.
First Gillard, then Miliband, now Shearer – three Labour leaders who have completely turned things round with one speech. The result for Shearer – an energised Labour Party ready to work for victory in 2014, and plenty for kiwis to talk about over the Christmas break.
David Shearer’s speech to conference was everything that it needed to be – and more. The headlines will be about KiwiBuild, as they should be, it’s a stunning policy. But just as important for the future of the country is the strong commitment to active government.
100,000 new entry level homes. The biggest public building programme in over fifty years. Hope for young families and households. A massive boost to jobs and the economy.
This is a historic policy.
When Margaret Thatcher was asked about her greatest achievement, she promptly answered: “New Labour.” And she was right: her triumph was that even her political enemies adopted her basic economic policies. True victory over your enemy occurs when they start to use your language, so that your ideas form the foundation of the entire field. Today, when neoliberal hegemony is clearly falling apart, the only solution is to repeat Thatcher’s gesture in the opposite direction.
A policy focusing on increasing state housing and affordable rents would be a good start. However, my current criticism of Labour leadership focuses on the policy direction of the leadership team. This requires more than just one policy. A bold new left wing plan is needed to deal with the difficult challenges ahead. Updated
