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Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns

Written By: - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments

At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.

National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.

It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.

Imperator Fish: In the Beehive today

Written By: - Date published: 12:14 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 5 comments

This post was put up at Imperator Fish on Sunday evening. It looks like Hekia Parata was following Scott’s script today. 🙂

Sure we need a better class of wingnut commenter, as is frequently suggested here. However surely it is more important that we get a better quality of government minister than ones who think that evidence based policies means only the evidence about how well their party is doing in the polls?

A quick note to John Key

Written By: - Date published: 9:59 am, July 7th, 2014 - 44 comments

Remember when John Key explained why he sends his children to private schools….. and now the Nats and Parata are saying that such advantages don’t work for all Kiwis.

Polity: Vote Positive

Written By: - Date published: 9:49 am, July 7th, 2014 - 11 comments

Rob Salmond got enthused over the Labour congress this weekend. We heard a superb set of politics emerge about education, always a core theme for Labour. We got not one but two treats in the form of speeches from our leadership. Both David Parker and David Cunliffe did great speeches, sending everyone home in exactly the right spirit of both pride and optimism. And we now know the campaign slogan…

David Cunliffe’s speech to the Labour Party congress

Written By: - Date published: 3:41 pm, July 6th, 2014 - 109 comments

David Cunliffe’s speech to the Labour Party congress delivered today.

David Cunliffe’s Congress Speech and education policy

Written By: - Date published: 8:22 am, July 6th, 2014 - 116 comments

Livestream details of David Cunliffe’s speech to the Labour Party Congress this afternoon which is expected to announce reduced classroom size by funding more teachers using money clawed back from National’s so called super teacher policy.

Labours fiscal plan – ring fencing

Written By: - Date published: 5:24 pm, July 5th, 2014 - 15 comments

I have spent a large chunk of the this week digging my way into Labour’s fiscal plan after the Liu smear collapsed. I think that the fiscal plan is a work of art, and very classy art at that. Of course you have to read it closely and look at what it is intended to do. I was particularly intrigued about why there was ring fencing of future increases to education and health.

Parker’s egalitarian passion

Written By: - Date published: 1:39 pm, July 5th, 2014 - 51 comments

David Parker’s speech at Labour’s Congress today was passionate, comprehensive, and fully thought through. Respected for his intellect, Parker also said “My political heart lies in what has become something of a quaint  notion these days, the notion of an egalitarian society. Perhaps it’s because of my Southern Presbyterian roots. It’s not just about equality of opportunity. It’s about decent outcomes as well.” Amen to that.

We men do need to own the violence problem

Written By: - Date published: 9:39 am, July 5th, 2014 - 246 comments

Yesterday saw a social media attack on David Cunliffe based on six words taken out of context in a speech given on an important subject.  The debate needs to be about the subject and not on right wing framing of the six words.  And yes us men need to own the domestic violence problem and work towards solutions.

Labour plans to win

Written By: - Date published: 1:11 pm, July 4th, 2014 - 122 comments

It’s true, Labour does have a plan to win this election. And the plan’s a good one. Campaign Manager David Talbot and Polity’s Rob Salmond presented it to members and media this morning at the Loaves and Fishes in Wellington, so it is out in the open. And it doesn’t depend on miracles.

Labour Policy release – Eliminating violence against Women and Children

Written By: - Date published: 11:26 am, July 4th, 2014 - 120 comments

Labour has today announced its policy on eliminating violence against women and children.

Local Bodies: Woman Experiences Sexual Attack, PM Gets First Apology.

Written By: - Date published: 3:16 pm, July 3rd, 2014 - 42 comments

A young woman was attacked in her own home by a Malaysian diplomat. He attempted to rape her. Despite Malaysia being prepared to have the diplomat tried in New Zealand the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade suggest that Malaysia may use diplomatic immunity and have the man returned home. The relationship with Malaysia was […]

NRT: The police are still ignoring electoral crime

Written By: - Date published: 3:05 pm, July 3rd, 2014 - 17 comments

The Electoral Commission is saying nothing about apparent police inaction on breaches of the electoral law. Information provided by the Commission reveals that since the beginning of 2011 there have been 113 breaches of the Electoral Act that it’s referred to police for investigation. Not one has resulted in a prosecution. In November, then the prosecution time-limit will kick in, and people will escape justice.

Labour will end the farce of “voluntary” school donations

Written By: - Date published: 1:40 pm, July 2nd, 2014 - 188 comments

Labour’s latest education policy announcement is fair, practical, and an answer to my (childhood) prayers.

Polity: Who do the “missing million” like?

Written By: - Date published: 1:16 pm, July 2nd, 2014 - 17 comments

National appear to have been indulging in wishful thinking for some time based on dubious analysis of voter turnout.  Their latest round of silliness comes from kiwiblog. Sure there were some National supporters who chose not to vote in 2011 out of complacency. But it is probably a minority, and that most of the new non-voters (who voted up to and including 2008, and then stopped) are lefties. The survey evidence points that way, and so does the E9 evidence when looked at properly.

Rachel who?

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, July 1st, 2014 - 69 comments

A guest post from Rachel Jones, who is number 25 of Labour’s list as well as the Labour candidate for the Tauranga seat.

Mallard’s moa idea is not going to fly

Written By: - Date published: 1:38 pm, July 1st, 2014 - 97 comments

Trevor Mallard’s comments today about Moas is obviously tongue in cheek but have succeeded in engaging social median in a way that the designers of #TeamKey can only dream of.

Is Bill English’s ‘big data’, Big Brother & privatisation of govt?

Written By: - Date published: 11:00 am, June 30th, 2014 - 135 comments

Bill English has stated that a third term Key government would majorly reform the government’s budgeting & spending.  It’s a major move towards privatisation of public services, & full spectrum digitally-enhanced monitoring of individuals’ lives: especially those of the already demonised and harassed single mothers on benefits.

David Cunliffe Q+A

Written By: - Date published: 3:09 pm, June 29th, 2014 - 190 comments

David Cunliffe’s question and answer.

Remember this will be fully moderated. Keep your comments short, intelligent, and broadly on topic. David will be here at about 4pm. It’d be good to have your starting comments up by then.

Bryan Gould: An impartial press

Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, June 29th, 2014 - 34 comments

Ed Miliband is competent, has the support of his party, but has abysmal poll ratings. The right-wing British press has played a significant role. For instance a messy bacon sandwich. In New Zealand, we all know that the British press is notoriously biased and that our own press may have their own allegiances but are reasonably  impartial. Which is why there are some disturbing features about the press treatment of the supposed “scandal” (as it is regularly referred to) of Donghua Liu and David Cunliffe.

The #teamkey personality cult

Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, June 29th, 2014 - 120 comments

National has unveiled aspects of its 2014 campaign with John Key being a cult like figure and a slogan that makes it sound like National cares for ordinary New Zealanders.

A John Key. With assembly instructions.

Written By: - Date published: 9:06 am, June 29th, 2014 - 11 comments

How to make your very own New Zealand Prime Minister. Even better looking than this vessel.

It’s the season of books & posters: write your own

Written By: - Date published: 7:27 am, June 29th, 2014 - 7 comments

It seems to be the season of books and faux movie posters. Mary-Ellen O’Connor has published a Nats’ cook book. Proceeds of the sales will apparently be donated to the “centre left”.

David Cunliffe two-way on Sunday at 4pm

Written By: - Date published: 10:24 am, June 28th, 2014 - 61 comments

David Cunliffe will be putting up a post on Sunday earlier on Sunday. He will be around for some two way interaction at about 4pm-5pm. It will be similar to the previous session last month. However he has put more time in his schedule.

NRT: Who’d have thunk it?

Written By: - Date published: 2:23 pm, June 27th, 2014 - 60 comments

Capital gains tax is now accepted by a more people than who oppose it. But for a policy long considered a “third rail” of New Zealand politics, its a significant shift.  It ought to put paid forever to the idea that parties must go with the flow of public opinion because they are unable to affect it. Weak parties are. But if Labour stops being scared of its own shadow and afraid of its left-wing heritage, it can actually change things, and build the majorities it needs to govern.

The people respond to the Herald Editorial on Donghua Liu

Written By: - Date published: 11:53 am, June 27th, 2014 - 66 comments

Further to lprent’s post this morning there is an avalanche of responses on the Herald website to its Donghua Liu editorial. People are obviously furious and the anger is palpable. And there is a trade me sale of John Key’s book with a very funny series of questions and answers

Dear John Armstrong

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, June 26th, 2014 - 82 comments

A dear John letter to Herald Columnist John Armstrong.

Polity: What tax would Warren Buffet pay in New Zealand?

Written By: - Date published: 1:58 pm, June 26th, 2014 - 14 comments

With the ritual whining from the right about our tax rates in New Zealand now that Labour given aspects of their alternative budget, it pays to consider what the real tax rates for the wealthy here are. Because of our lack of a capital gains tax, we are in the strange position where we would tax a wealthy investor like Warren Buffet a lot less than he is in the USA. Thats outrageous.

Polity: Labour’s fiscal plan: B+

Written By: - Date published: 2:30 pm, June 25th, 2014 - 20 comments

I’m a glass half-full kind of a guy, so I want to start by emphasising the parts of  Labour’s just-released fiscal plan that I like. The good: commitment to paying off government debt during economic good times, tax rate changes are welcome, and targeting tax avoidance by large multinationals. Bad: the top tax rate is still too low, and no need to signal second term tax cuts. Overall I would give this package a B+.

Labour’s alternative budget

Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, June 25th, 2014 - 139 comments

Labour has announced details of its alternative budget with the headline a change in the top tax rate to 36 cents in the dollar for the top 2% of taxpayers.

CTU: Labour’s financial plan will make life fairer for working Kiwis

Written By: - Date published: 12:56 pm, June 25th, 2014 - 8 comments

Labour’s Fiscal Plan shows a clear and positive difference from National. Those who earn over over 150,000 will pay more tax and applying tax to trusts to combat tax avoidance, are welcome steps to reducing inequality and the unfairness of the tax system.  It’s a relief to see more effort in stopping the billions of dollars of tax evasion. Labour’s commitment to funding the real costs of Health and Education, taking account of rising costs and the changing population, forces National to front up and say what it is going to do to prevent our public services from deteriorating further.